Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
July 15, 2014

An Alberta energy infrastructure operator and a great business. Really a play in the northern Athabascan and Cold Lake regions. Have 3 pipelines. Funded 2 of the pipelines with 2 anchor tenants. The thesis is that they are going to add on incremental shippers with very high, accretive returns. Dividend is sustainable, and will probably grow north of 5%-7% over the next 2-3 years. There continues to be significant CapX put into the space. The only risk would be that they are predominantly in the Alberta pipeline system, and will need to have market access. They can get their pipelines to key Edmonton terminals, and will need to have long haul pipelines out of Edmonton. With a two-year time horizon, you can chip away here. South of $29 would be a good access price, and would give you a 10%-15% margin of error of safety.

An Alberta energy infrastructure operator and a great business. Really a play in the northern Athabascan and Cold Lake regions. Have 3 pipelines. Funded 2 of the pipelines with 2 anchor tenants. The thesis is that they are going to add on incremental shippers with very high, accretive returns. Dividend is sustainable, and will probably grow north of 5%-7% over the next 2-3 years. There continues to be significant CapX put into the space. The only risk would be that they are predominantly in the Alberta pipeline system, and will need to have market access. They can get their pipelines to key Edmonton terminals, and will need to have long haul pipelines out of Edmonton. With a two-year time horizon, you can chip away here. South of $29 would be a good access price, and would give you a 10%-15% margin of error of safety.

Gajan Kulasingam
VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$32.810
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
July 15, 2014

Rising interest rates would be a negative headwind, but it will be for any utility and any equity stock from a valuation perspective. In a rising interest rate environment you want to look for businesses where they can grow their free cash flow and dividend in a measured pace that offsets the rising interest rate impact on valuation. He thinks this is one of those names. Have a unique 2 prong strategy where half the business is a fully regulated utility, and the other half is a contracted independent power generation business. Management has done a good job. They have indicated there is potential of up to $2 billion of incremental projects they can take on. If so, you are looking at a stock that is probably worth $12-$13 out in 2017. If you can get this between $8-$9, you will get a 12%-15% total return over 2 years. Yield of 4.2%, which he expects will be increased every year.

Rising interest rates would be a negative headwind, but it will be for any utility and any equity stock from a valuation perspective. In a rising interest rate environment you want to look for businesses where they can grow their free cash flow and dividend in a measured pace that offsets the rising interest rate impact on valuation. He thinks this is one of those names. Have a unique 2 prong strategy where half the business is a fully regulated utility, and the other half is a contracted independent power generation business. Management has done a good job. They have indicated there is potential of up to $2 billion of incremental projects they can take on. If so, you are looking at a stock that is probably worth $12-$13 out in 2017. If you can get this between $8-$9, you will get a 12%-15% total return over 2 years. Yield of 4.2%, which he expects will be increased every year.

Gajan Kulasingam
VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$8.030
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 15, 2014

Dividend is stable with a payout ratio of 100%. They are going through a CapX program right now with the Gemini project, an offshore European wind project. Comes online in 2017-2018, and when that happens the dividend payout ratio will immediately drop to 80%-85%. Management has a tendency to go through CapX cycles pretty extensively, so there is a potential that Gemini could come online, the payout ratio dips into the 80%s, and then they undertake another CapX program, which would keep the payout ratio high. They are always investing in high return/high growth businesses. 5.5% yield.

Dividend is stable with a payout ratio of 100%. They are going through a CapX program right now with the Gemini project, an offshore European wind project. Comes online in 2017-2018, and when that happens the dividend payout ratio will immediately drop to 80%-85%. Management has a tendency to go through CapX cycles pretty extensively, so there is a potential that Gemini could come online, the payout ratio dips into the 80%s, and then they undertake another CapX program, which would keep the payout ratio high. They are always investing in high return/high growth businesses. 5.5% yield.

Gajan Kulasingam
VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$17.690
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 15, 2014

The ultimate diversified conglomerate. A nice stable business that is going to give you low, single-digit total returns from an earnings growth perspective. The multiple of 15X is not rich. Always trades at a discount just because it is a large conglomerate. Recently got permission from the French government to bid for their power and grid business. This will be done in 3 joint ventures, so it will be less of a capital outlay and de-risks the initial investment. Dividend is going to continue to grow at mid-single digit levels.

The ultimate diversified conglomerate. A nice stable business that is going to give you low, single-digit total returns from an earnings growth perspective. The multiple of 15X is not rich. Always trades at a discount just because it is a large conglomerate. Recently got permission from the French government to bid for their power and grid business. This will be done in 3 joint ventures, so it will be less of a capital outlay and de-risks the initial investment. Dividend is going to continue to grow at mid-single digit levels.

Gajan Kulasingam
VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$26.610
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 15, 2014

Stock had a nice run, and was really a function of them de-risking their Jordan Coal project, a West Coast-based LNG export project. They need to secure the financing and an off taker for their LNG facility. Thinks this is worth $21. Still have the risk of the alliance pipeline that needs to be re-contracted. He doesn’t want to take on their risks. Dividend is safe for now, but it depends on how they re-contract.

Veresen Inc (VSN-T)
July 15, 2014

Stock had a nice run, and was really a function of them de-risking their Jordan Coal project, a West Coast-based LNG export project. They need to secure the financing and an off taker for their LNG facility. Thinks this is worth $21. Still have the risk of the alliance pipeline that needs to be re-contracted. He doesn’t want to take on their risks. Dividend is safe for now, but it depends on how they re-contract.

Gajan Kulasingam
VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$19.000
Owned
No
BUY
BUY
July 15, 2014

Great company. 3 different segments of power, gas and utilities. The utility segment is pretty stable, and generates a nice cash flow. The power segment is where he thinks they’ll have a good project in their Forrest Kerr Hydro that just came online, which would generate a lot of free cash flow. This is also the best way to play the LNG export market.

Altagas Ltd (ALA-T)
July 15, 2014

Great company. 3 different segments of power, gas and utilities. The utility segment is pretty stable, and generates a nice cash flow. The power segment is where he thinks they’ll have a good project in their Forrest Kerr Hydro that just came online, which would generate a lot of free cash flow. This is also the best way to play the LNG export market.

Gajan Kulasingam
VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$48.010
Owned
Yes
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
July 15, 2014

Unique in the sense that they are a true global renewal business within Canada. One of the best run management teams with some of the best assets in the renewal space, mostly hydro. A slower yield growth name, but is stable. If you think rates are going to rise, which he thinks they will, there could be a moderate pullback.

Unique in the sense that they are a true global renewal business within Canada. One of the best run management teams with some of the best assets in the renewal space, mostly hydro. A slower yield growth name, but is stable. If you think rates are going to rise, which he thinks they will, there could be a moderate pullback.

Gajan Kulasingam
VP & Senior Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$31.110
Owned
Yes