Brian Madden

So far, so good. We'll see once the other of the Big 7 names report. GOOG got things rolling nicely last night. Broadly, 250-260 of the S&P 500 constituents have reported Q3 earnings. We're seeing earnings on average up high single digits, pretty good all things considered. By and large, companies are reporting better than expected results.

Canada is still in early days, with only 10% of TSX constituents having reported. But early results are showing a more difficult earnings comparison. Canadian companies, in aggregate, are lagging US counterparts this season.

Both candidates are running broadly similar campaign platforms from an economic standpoint, very fiscally undisciplined. From a stock market and corporate earnings perspective, that's going to be pro-growth if they run big deficits and stimulate the economy with fiscal policy. Good for growth, albeit at the expense of long-run, fiscal sustainability. A kick-the-can-down-the-road approach. 

Medium term implication probably that inflation will be higher than it was, as well as interest rates. After the election, expects a lot of anxiety to dissipate. There's a lot of speculative positioning in the options market with people putting on hedges.

The election will come and go, hopefully peacefully and quickly. And then we get into a seasonally strong period in December, which should sustain the very strong rally we've had so far in stocks through to the end of the year.

Pharma is ~90% of revenue, smaller segment is animal care. Pulled back about 23% from recent peak in June. Yield is 3%, has grown at 5% compound pace over last 5 years. So total compounded shareholder return ~10% over the last decade. Pullback probably buyable. Steady, non-cyclical, a need not a want.

Risks include lower guidance on Gardasil (second-biggest drug) sales in China, coming off patent in 2028. Keytruda (biggest drug) also coming off patent then. Those two together account for just over 50% of revenues. Need to fill hole in pipeline either through R&D or M&A.

Don't sell here, no reason to get off the train. Good things going on. 

Historical, unprecedented valuation discount (high teens) to peers. Before the money laundering and failed M&A clouds appeared, used to trade at high-single or low-double digit premium. Reputation tarnished. Cap on size of US balance sheet.

Will work night and day to make itself squeaky clean again and return to growth trajectory in the US. Excess capital to be deployed in some fashion by new CEO -- buy back shares, increase dividend, M&A. Good time to own and add.

Unassailable, ubiquitous, global business. AWS business is less appreciated by consumers, but just as impressive as e-commerce and probably growing faster. Valuation rich, expectations high. Over a long cycle, will probably keep growing. He's chosen other Mag 7 horses.

Waiting to see results shake out. Mission-critical for households and businesses. Longer operating history than META, so this provides a stronger, competitive moat. Generates more cash. Came into regulatory crosshairs 25 years ago, emerged unscathed and stronger. Both are great companies, but this one's better.

META drawing ire of politicians, which is an unpriced risk he's steering clear of.

Waiting to see results shake out. MSFT is mission-critical for households and businesses. Longer operating history than META, so this provides a stronger, competitive moat; generates more cash. MSFT came into regulatory crosshairs 25 years ago, emerged unscathed and stronger. Both are great companies, but MSFT is better.

META drawing ire of politicians, which is an unpriced risk he's steering clear of.

E-commerce in a box, turnkey solutions. Getting better and better. Tremendous competitive moat. Monster grower of revenue and gross merchandise value, consistently at a high rate. Big moves can accompany earnings releases, so he'd wait to add. Hold for the long haul.

Tremendously creative people who keep finding ways to create value for merchants. Spends lots on R&D to do this.

Made up of oil pipeline assets previously owned by TRP. He got shares in the spinoff. Thinks that, long term, he'll sell; but not in a huge rush. Dividend estimated to be a juicy 9%, though not yet declared. But growth is modest, so dividend increases will be as well.

Last night's results were excellent. Earnings up ~37%. Strength across the board. Share buybacks continue at a meaningful clip. Cloud business really picking up, driven by demand for generative AI.

Very strong second quarter. Still grows earnings at a sustainable high teens rate, impressive. Combined ratio is ~87%. Modest dampening enthusiasm due to its richer valuation at 17.5x earnings, compared to its average of 15.5x.

Excellent at the science of retail. Canadians pinched by inflation are increasingly changing their shopping patterns. Research shows you won't get things cheaper anywhere else in Canada. Very strong same-store sales, maintaining margins. Latin American joint venture has become a meaningful driver. Lots of blue sky ahead.

Probably won't go too far astray with this one. Now more competition with TMX coming onstream, so capacity may not be as full. Limited cyclicality. Sleep well at night. Muted dividend growth aspirations of 2-5% range. Yield is ~6%.

His preference is TRP.

Close to a bottom, but too early still before an upturn. Swing factor for earnings will be commodity price for potash, and he doesn't see this coming back to sustained supply/demand balance in the medium term. BHP's new production will add ~10% more supply, keeping prices under pressure.