Brian Madden
Chief Investment Officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel
Member since: Aug '16 · 1901 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
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| 4.75 | 232 23.20% | 244 24.40% | 164 16.40% | 208 20.80% | 152 15.20% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.83 | 8 3.15% | 85 33.46% | 89 35.04% | 68 26.77% | 4 1.57% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 45 18.83% | 73 30.54% | 34 14.23% | 56 23.43% | 31 12.97% | |
| 12 Months | 4.99 | 63 28.13% | 49 21.88% | 23 10.27% | 34 15.18% | 55 24.55% | |
| 2 Years | 4.55 | 67 36.02% | 23 12.37% | 14 7.53% | 36 19.35% | 46 24.73% | |
| 5 Years | 4.36 | 49 50.52% | 14 14.43% | 4 4.12% | 14 14.43% | 16 16.49% |
Stock Opinions by Brian Madden
BOC and the Fed both cut by 25 bps yesterday. Broadly speaking, that's good for the valuation of all risky assets because risk-free rates are the foundation of the cost of capital for companies. Lower rates tend to lead to a re-rating, and we've seen that today.
His team focuses on two long, North American, high-conviction, best-in-breed portfolios. One mandate looks for companies that have a demonstrated history of growing dividends, underpinned by a strong competitive moat. The other, more aggressive, mandate looks for companies with very strong fundamental momentum.
It's a 2-speed economy. The job market isn't terribly healthy in either US or Canada. The experience of the median household in the street is not all sunshine and roses. Yet we have corporate profits and equity indices at or near all-time highs.
To capitalize on that, their portfolios remain predominantly invested in mid-cap, and especially large-cap, enterprises. These tend to have more resilience, more robust structural profitability, and (crucially) a more global orientation.
Great business, growing secularly. Dominant position in a tight oligopoly. Domestic (40%) and overseas (60%). Expects earnings to continue to compound at ~12-14% pace over coming several years. Competitive moat means not likely to be disrupted.
Has pulled back about 8%, while equity market is making new highs. One to buy the dip. At ~27x PE, trades at small discount to MA right now. MA is growing faster, around 15%. But trades at 32-33x PE.
He'd be fine with buying either one or both for the very long term.
Continues to like, own, and buy. Very encouraged by latest earnings report and guidance. Integral to stitching data centres together. Long runway of growth. Hitched its wagon to the big hyperscalers, so as long as they keep spending money this name will be along for the ride.
Part of the plumbing of the internet and, increasingly, the AI economy.
Intriguing. Likes business fundamentals. Space economy has a $1.5T addressable market. Has a $4.8B backlog, though did lose the EchoStar contract. Top-tier customers. NATO allies significantly upping defense spending.
His team is assessing risk/reward. Watching, hasn't pulled trigger. Stay tuned.
Owned in both of his firm's equity mandates. Continues to be very constructive on the business, industry, management, and strategy. Leader in the alternative asset manager space. Scale advantaged. Fund flows to private equity are outstripping flows to publicly traded stocks and bonds. Global. Over $1T on balance sheet. Serial compounder.
A near-shoring play involving contracts with the US government. Musk and the DOGE belt-tightening may have upset the apple cart. They also do a lot of business with the Canadian government and our banks, and PM Carney has been looking for efficiencies as well.
More steak, rather than having the sizzle of AI. So recent weakness could be just money flow. Can't argue with what it's done over decades, a good compounder. Not tempted, he'd just watch from the sidelines for now.
Economy's weakening, as is the job market. Macro uncertainties are weighing on households, though not on the top 10%. But the top tier is not the target market for CCL. Very high beta of 1.5x. Extraordinarily leveraged at $40B of debt.
Still off all-time highs of pre-Covid. Needed to do distress equity financing, so share count doubled and shares were diluted.
