Brian Madden

There could be some tailwind from interest rate cuts, but the uptick is probably due more to good jobs reports and other underlying factors. Usually there's a long lag effect of interest rates on an economy, somewhere between 12-18 months.

This is the #1 topic of conversation everywhere you go. It's not a threat to be dismissive of, because if tariffs are followed through on, it would impact Canadian households, businesses, and the economy. Every economist in the world knows that tariffs end up being paid by the consumer.

Risk management is about probability and severity, and the severity is high. His firm's view is that the probability of tariffs being carried out as threatened/promised is much like playing the player, not the cards, in poker. The typical playbook of this particular US player is shock/awe/bully/bluff, and then you strike a deal and declare a MAGA victory but without substance. It's all to bolster the Trump approval rating.

We do need to come to the table and put our game faces on, because this is a serious file. Still, he does see an ongoing bull market. Economists and strategists tell you what the market should be doing. Yet prices, volumes, and charts tell you what the market is doing.

He sees the S&P 500 and the TSX putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is the definition of a bull market.

Prefers TRP. Still, a mighty solid company and second-best of this peer group. This pullback is buyable. Yield is ~6.3%, growing at about a 3% over last 5 years (significant slowdown from a decade ago). Good line of sight to high single-digit total shareholder return. 

Not particularly cyclical or prone to fluctuating commodity prices; 90+% of business is rate-regulated and take-or-pay. Slowly greening the company.

New strategy under new CEO made sense in theory, but devil is in the details. Non-controlling position in KeyCorp was a head scratcher. Sold Colombian business, but still invested. Show-me story. 

Services aren't goods, so they won't be subject to border tariffs. Engineering services have secular growth opportunities. Meaningful US position, and US is growing faster than Canada. Much revenue comes from government, and is a risk, but doesn't negate the strong secular tailwinds.

Services aren't goods, so they won't be subject to border tariffs. Plus, engineering services have secular growth opportunities from things like climate change and data centres. Impressive recent results. 

One of the Magnificent 3 he owns out of the Mag 7. Likes the secular opportunity in cloud computing via Azure, plus entrenched dominance in business and household applications. Stalwart grower, undemanding valuation.

One of the Magnificent 3 he owns out of the Mag 7. Ubiquitous. 

If only he could roll back the time machine on his portfolio.... The bank that grew up and took a well-deserved seat at the big boys' table. Exceptional bank, packs a big punch in capital markets. Standout results. Purchase of CWB is a hand-in-glove fit, strategically sound, likely accretive. Lots of blue sky ahead, no qualms adding.

Likes gold, and this is a good way to play. Excellent management, prudent and disciplined use of capital. Good assets. 12 varied mines in low-political-risk jurisdictions. Low cost. Increases to dividend were paused, but should resume. Close to debt-free. Sleep at night.

Excellent business. Difficult comparisons from Covid sales, but thought those days were over. Fed moved more slowly lowering rates, consumers became reticent on big-ticket items. Sold last August.

Sold early September last year. Thesis was negated by the facts. Inflation in cocoa; iconic brand carried them only so far, and eventually consumers pared back purchases. 

In the face of a stock-picking mistake, try not to compound it by digging in your heels and making up a narrative to support holding the stock. Rip off the Band-Aid, choose again, and avoid the opportunity cost of further drawdowns.

In his momentum mandate. Increasingly catering to large-enterprise customers, not just small and medium players. Lots of admiration for the business model.

In his momentum mandate. Compelling valuation of 27-28x PE compared to its own history. Earnings expected to grow at a high-20s rate. PEG ratios around 1 are really good, up to 2 are OK, beyond that is expensive. Risks of further tariffs on China would not make a huge impact.

Risk is that export restrictions on the most advanced AI chips would be tightened further and impact sales. His bullishness on the name is underpinned by the AI revolution. Demand is there, though capacity constrained recently. 90% of chips go to data centres, rest into gaming and auto.

Owns for its terrific first-mover advantage in semiconductors and, in particular, GPUs and other chips for AI and data-centre applications. Reported good results. Stock's pulling back, but still in a long-and-strong secular uptrend. Volatile stock, hyper-owned and hyper-scrutinized. People tend to own it with a very short-term trading mentality. Positioned and weighted properly, it definitely deserves a spot in a diversified portfolio.

Had held in portfolios almost consistently since 2000. Dynamic takeover story. Watershed moment for corporate Japan after 2 lost decades. Current management of Seven & I is underperforming. ATD management really wants this takeover, but they would never overpay. There's a deal to be had, and taking over just the NA assets is a possibility.