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Stock Opinions by Mike MacBain

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Markets. It has been 5 years of free money with QE. The markets have been complacent, but now the markets changed as we come to the end of the process. He thinks the Fed will be cautious and not raise the rates quickly. There is a potential for bonds to get out of control when interest rates start to rise. As interest rates rise, corporate spreads narrow. Higher yield bonds are as overvalued as any asset class and will get a double wammy when interest rates go up.

Unknown
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It has been a challenge for investors because of their age. 55+ investors should be invested heavily in fixed income, but the rates are not high enough to live on. They are being forced into the equity markets.

Unknown
BUY

Has performed well until the last little while. A large part (66%) of that ETF is in financial stocks. The distribution is driven to a great extent by dividends. He does not think this part of the market is going to struggle as interest rates start to rise.

E.T.F.'s
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Government of Canada Interest Rates. The government auctions their bonds from time to time. The coupon is set to the current rate, but after the date of issue the price goes up or down according to interest rates.

Unknown
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What is the criteria for a bond to be high yield? A bond rated lower than triple ‘B’.

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BUY

A great company with a commanding position in its business and one of the top 3 insurers in the country. The single ‘A’ bond space does not command that high a yield. Get the equity in a bear market for interest rates.

insurance
PAST TOP PICK

Long Telus Corp 4.40% 4/2043 bonds and Short Gov’t Of Canada 4.00% 6/2041 bonds. (Top Pick May 15/14, Up 1.43%, Down 4.19%) Designed to make money in an interest rate rising environment.

telephone utilities
PAST TOP PICK

Long Videotron 5.625% 6.2025 Bond and Short Gov’t of Canada 1.50% 6/2023 Bond. (Top Pick May 15/14, Up 2.77% / Down 2.03%) Triple ‘B’ company. If government convinces them to be the 4th national carrier, their wireless will have to be standalone entity.

publishing / printing
PAST TOP PICK

Long Bundesrepublik Deutchland 3.25% 1/2020 Bond and Short Deutsche Bank 5.00% 6/2024 Bond. (Top Pick May 15/14, Up 2.07% / Down 2.75%) A defensive trade. The banking sector has turned around a little in Europe. It would no longer be his top pick.

banks
DON'T BUY

Reset Preferreds. They are issued at $25 and trade in the market wherever the market has them. The reset is an answer for the perpetual preferreds that had infinite interest rate risk. Resets are only extended if it benefits the issuer. If interest rates rise then they get extended at an increased rate spread and if interest rates fall, they are called. You get paid only a fraction of what you should get for the risk you are taking.

Unknown
DON'T BUY

A floating rate ETF has little return, although not much interest rate exposure. You would want to earn more than 1.25%.

Unknown
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Money Flows as investors return to bonds – where does it come from? It moved from bonds into equities over the last 12-18 months. A lot of money is sitting on the sidelines, however, waiting to get into equity markets.

Unknown
COMMENT

A laddered bond fund can reduce your exposure using shorter durations. The average is about 2.5 years. It reduces your return, but reduces your exposure to rising interest rates. A lot of funds use preferred shares instead of bonds.

E.T.F.'s
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Bond ETFs, bond mutual funds and bonds straight up have the same exposure to rising interest rates.

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SELL

Has been under investigation by the SCC. Bill Gross has left. The North American bond markets have been in a bit of disarray for the last two weeks because of this because Pimco manage such a large amount of capital in the bond markets. Huge redemptions have hurt them. A US dollar bond fund and the US strong dollar have benefitted you. It is a traditional bond fund that has done fairly well. The future isn’t fantastic because he thinks interest rates are going to go higher. They have a lot of quite good bond managers there. [The guest cautioned that he is reluctant to advise buying or selling a managed fund - 'out managing the manager']

E.T.F.'s
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