Opinions Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA CommentaryCOMMENTJul 14, 2025
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAYou might be interested:
The message, loud and clear, in recent weeks of earnings is the market is becoming more selective. Companies that delivered that earnings that would have been exceptional a year ago, are now facing pressure--strong earnings are no longer enough, but also need to justify high valuations, sustainable profitable, and a tangible return on AI. That enthusiasm about AI has shifted to seeing returns on investment and cash flows. This is healthy for the broader market, happening during surprising resilient economic growth. However, there's rising inflation above the US's 2% target. She's looking at companies' underlying cash flow and watching the bond market. Overall, the market looks constructive and you don't need to be defensive.
Based on polls, it looks like Trump will lose the House which will turn him into a lame duck president, then he will default to more executive orders. Meanwhile, central banks will keep raising interest rates. Yesterday, Google got hit, so the market is asking who will pay for AI. Overall, he's trimming and pull back, including Google after more than doubling, energy and precious metal.
For new money, telcos (as well as REITs and other sectors) have been hit as interest rates keep rising. The telcos, though, have aleady cut dividends, so they are relatively defensive. Getting more income into your portfolio now makes sense. So these sectors act like a bond proxy, which are buys.
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The market expected today's Bank of Canada interest rate hike to 2.5%, given rising inflation fueled by rising energy prices from the U.S.-Iran war. It probably won't impact the TSX much because the index is heavily weighted in commodities and financials, which may actually benefit from higher rates. The hike follows the U.S. one. AI stocks are driving the market and there's a lack of market breadth. About half the S&P is tied to AI and data centres. But two-thirds of the S&P are trading below their 50-day moving average, mostly those not linked to AI, but that's where opportunities lie. He also likes energy.
The market is volatile. Everyday there is a sector or theme that works: one day AI works, the next AI isn't working, then it's energy or the hyperscalers, then not. We're all slaves to the algo trading and causes people to lose focus on long-term investing. He doesn't trade every two seconds; he focuses on the fundamentals, on quality businesses, over 3-5 years, companies that can grow EPS 10% annually and cash flow. He won't overpay for the enthusiasm for potential AI growth. He's attracted to niche US software and IT now, and the hyperscalers.
There's still room to run in global stocks in this rotation period, shifting away from U.S. tech, because investors are adding up the costs and returns in tech--and it isn't adding up. So, the shift has been to the opposite: energy, just energy thrived in the sluggish 70s. Washington: How lame duck is Trump? We'll likely see a Democrat Congress, though who knows what will happen to the Senate? Probably, we'll see gridlock, which markets like. Markets would be more bearish if things shifted entirely to the left, because of tax policy. Trump lowered corporate taxes, but there won't be tax changes for at least 6 months.
Anthropic IPO: Few surprises in today's prospectus and so far, so good. US Midterms: Historically, gridlock is good for stock markets, but what's different now is the colossal amount of US debt. Expect a shutdown in the first few months, but he hopes it won't be too disruptive. AI: Democratic states don't want new data centres in their backyard (NIMBY), which will force companies to adjust their building plans. This week, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rate to keep pace with other central banks, given inflation. The world needs more housing supply and for wars to end.
Anthropic will IPO next month. Revenue growth per employee is far higher in the Mag 7 then the rest of the S&P 500, which has flatlined for the last 7 years. A chart of profit margins over that span is the same, with Mag 7 far outperforming the S&P 493. Anthropic touts AI is the most important tech to ever hit the planet given better productivity. Among the AI ETFs, AIQ is the passive way which outperforms when things are bad, but BAI outperforms when things are good. Both ETFs are the same now, and they both include SpaceX. Like SpaceX, he expects huge volatility from Anthropic, but buy the dips for a long-term hold.
It's a day-by-day thing: one day, tech rotates in, another day it rotates out. We haven't seen a full rotation though, because AI remains a dominant theme, but investors are asking when and what the returns will be, and when the capex spending will end. Who knows? Capex is massive, not since the railroads of the 1800s. He solds some Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft which he entered last spring. A lot of businesses are sitting on their hands, uncertain, like the car and steel sectors. We will feel this impact in the next few quarters.
Until very recently the market became very narrow, with only the largest of large-cap tech hanging in. As of this week, about 45% of companies in the S&P 500 are down more than 30%. With 60% down over 20%, 80% down over 10%.
The index has been looking pretty resilient, but there's a lot of weakness under the surface. Part of that has been from companies hurt by rising rates (defensive assets such as staples, utilities, etc). For companies that borrow fairly heavily, their borrowing costs have been going up.
In particular, the strength has been from companies generating lots of free cashflow and showing pretty steady dividend growth. Those have been his firm's focus.
Tweaking Investment Exposure
He often gets questions about whether it's a good time to invest now, and it's usually new money coming off the sidelines. Right now, the US equity market's at all-time highs. One of the ways you can be a bit more conservative at times, or aggressive at times, is by looking at different ways to get exposure to the US large-cap area. And you can do that by using factors.
He brought along a chart of 5 different ETFs as ways to play: SPHB, SPLV, SPHQ, SDY, and SPY.
SPY -- low-cost MER, broad S&P 500 exposure.
SPHB -- S&P, high beta. Rebalanced a couple of times a year into the higher-volatility names. Typically exposed to ~20% of the index.
SPLV -- S&P, low volatility. About 20% of the index, typically higher yield. In the long run, similar returns to the broader market.
SPHQ -- his favourite factor. High quality. In the long run, uses filters to give you 20 names of the highest-quality companies in the S&P. Good balance sheets, less sensitive to the economic cycle. Some dividends, some growth. High-performing names. If you can handle the ride, this is the one to buy and hold.
SDY -- a way to play the S&P with a dividend basket.
Reality is that depending on what kind of investor you are, there's a different solution for everyone. Right now, with markets at all-time highs, he's not comfortable telling people to take $$ out of the bank and put it in the market. If you did right now, he'd say to go low volatility or high dividends. Because...look at his next chart.
The next chart shows that, during volatile periods over the years, when it's bad (as it was during Covid or 2015-2016) the low volatility and higher dividend options give you a better experience. They keep you invested, with more yield and less downside. But after a correction (typically about 13%), you want to pivot and shift into high-beta names for more growth, the broad S&P, or high-quality names. But do this when markets are cheap, not when they're expensive.
Learn which tools work in which environment, but there's an ETF for just about every person out there. Always stay fully invested for the long run, as it's really the best thing people can do. But tweak your exposure, so if we go through an adverse period, it's a little bit less bad. We can't time markets perfectly.