Opinions
Michael Missaghie
Amica Mature Lifestyles
ACC-T
COMMENT
Mar 19, 2014
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Growth in this company is going to slow a little. A lot of their growth has been through acquiring facilities, developing facilities and acquiring larger stakes in facilities they already own. This is going to slow down a little but they will continue to grow. Good management. Trading at or just below NAV. Dividend is safe and you can expect modest growth going forward. If you are willing to accept a little volatility than you could step into this. 4.9% dividend yield is safe.
High-quality seniors housing. Have done a good job of growing over the last few years by acquiring some of the minority interests. Pleasantly surprised over the recent quarterly earnings on their “lease up” portfolios, and that the occupancy has grown. Leverage has picked up a bit, but, as assets are leased up over time and management becomes more focused on the portfolio, this should be dealt with. 5 % Distribution.
Trading at a discount to NAV. He likes the seniors sector. At this price, this is a very good Buy. People over 75 are going to increase by 50% over the next couple of decades, which should bolster demand for seniors housing. Had a bit of an issue last quarter with respect to lease of some new properties, but doesn’t feel this represents a long-term problem.
Has lagged because they encountered some operational issues. Their portfolio has not entirely stabilized. They have a handful of properties where the occupancy is significantly below 75%. They communicated to the Street that they are going to try to get that occupancy a lot higher, but have quite a ways to get their targets. Also, the stock has never been really cheap. Thinks management is positioning the company and addressing the issues for growth in 2015-2016. He likes that management owns about 25% of the company.
High quality seniors housing across Canada. Have been one of the laggards when looking at stock performance, versus a real estate sector, as a whole. Had some difficulty on their leverage, which is higher than many of their peers. Also, have a large proportion of their assets in “lease up” communities, so are not fully stabilized from an occupancy perspective, and have needed to increase the occupancy, which they have. The dividend yield is very sustainable and payout ratio is around 85%. There is a question on how they are going to grow with their high level of leverage. At some point there is going to be a transaction that surfaces the value for shareholders.
Regal was paid a premium of 18% when they made an acquisition. He has owned ACC-T for a long time. There are growth issues. It is a demographic play and is best in class for its sector. He thinks there will be price pressure to the upside on this one. It is either a re-rating or a buyout story.
Owner of very high-end retirement homes across Canada. Trading around the 10%-12% discount to what the assets are worth. Fall of this stock price has befuddled many in the investment community. The only thing he can think of is that they have come out with some increased disclosure looking through to some of the assets where they own partial equity ownership and the leverage looked a little bit higher than most people anticipated. Also, they have a large proportion of their assets in lease-up, whereby they are not fully stabilized so some investors might be a little bit concerned as to whether those assets are going to be stabilized sooner rather than later. He has confidence in this company.