Opinions
Josef Schachter A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary COMMENT May 01, 2018
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Off that April bottom, we've seen probably one of the most dramatic V-bottoms in history. That's telling you that things are starting to get a bit extended. If you look at the CNN Fear & Greed Index, or the NAAIM exposure of almost 100% invested right now, you can see that short-term things are extended.
Markets made a really big push to highs. Now zoom out and look at the longer term, some things have happened that indicate we're setting up for higher markets long term. But there could be chop in the short term. Depends on what type of investor you are. If you're more for the short term, you might want to look at raising some cash. If you're in it for the long haul, you'll probably just sit here and ride out the volatility.
There's so much going on right now, and we've seen a year like no other as far as geopolitical news and tariff talks. Now the focus will probably turn to earnings for Q2. After Q1, a lot of companies didn't provide much for guidance because of the tariffs. So now we'll want to see what the guidance is going forward, and that will let us get a better sense of valuation on the market.
Looking at the market from a historical, rearview perspective, it certainly is expensive right now.
One factor is the timeframe for how long you want to stay invested. You need realistic timeframes, because we saw this past March what volatility can do to markets. He tends to focus on a lot of small- to mid-cap companies, and they can be really volatile both on their stock and on their underlying business.
Know yourself and how you react to making money and to losing money. When a stock's losing money do you follow it down, buy more, or stop yourself out? Need to know that ahead of time so that you don't get emotional in the moment. When you're making money, will you hold and make a lot of money for the duration or will you harvest your gains along the way and reinvest somewhere else?
It's important to know ahead of time what you're going to do, especially with the small- and mid-caps.
When you talk to people ahead of time, most say either they can handle volatility or they don't want any volatility. If an investor doesn't want any volatility, then really the market's not the right place for them.
If they say they can handle volatility, it comes down to how much they can handle and over what timeframe. If you look back to what happened in March/April, and now we're right back to where we were, know that it doesn't always work out that way. There have been times in history when a downturn can last for a much longer period. Think back to 2008 or 2001-2003. So investors have to understand how much downside volatility they can stomach.
If you can handle a 15-20% drop, but only for a year, then perhaps the market isn't the place for all of your money. If you can stick it out for 3-4 years, then the market is OK for you.
Also, if you have a steady cashflow and you're adding money to your portfolio all the time, you want cheaper prices. That will really help you in the long run over time.
Numbers for Canadian financials are starting to accelerate. Canadian banks over-provisioned for loan losses; if they don't have to tap into those reserves, should see really strong numbers going forward. On technicals, all the Canadian banks are moving up the ranks. Over 10-20 years, there hasn't been a better investment. They all pay a dividend, though not fantastic growth every single year, a bit lumpy.
They've all done well, and TD has caught up to the others, so it wouldn't make sense to switch out of one for another at this point.
The best sleep at night you can have.
Market Update:
Canada factory Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI)declined to 45.6 from 46.1 in May, marking the fifth straight month sub-50 continues, as the trade war with the U.S drove the continued downturn. On the other hand, the US trade deficit widened by 18.7% to $71.5 billion in May, driven by weak exports, while economists warned that it could take some time for the tariff-related effect to affect the economic data. The Canadian dollar was 73.62 cents USD. The U.S. S&P 500 ended the week up 2.1%, while the TSX was up 1.7%.
A lot more greens this week than reds. Consumer discretionary and industrials gained 4.4% and 2.4%, respectively. Technology and financials added 2.2%, each, while real estate edged up by 1.9%. Materials gained 1.5%, while Energy ended the week up 0.4%. Consumer staples ended the week down slightly, 0.1%. The most heavily traded shares by volume were TC Energy (TRP), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) and National Bank of Canada (NA).
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Premium contentThere are all sorts of strategies in the stock market, including being a moth that just wants to go to the flame. His firm's strategy is to not be the bullseye. Their idea is to find a great business that everyone's ignoring, and so to find things that are not going to be affected by tariffs. Focusing on the tariffs themselves is just too hard to figure out.
When Trump was elected in November he was already talking about tariffs, so they went through all their companies to see how they'd be affected by tariffs. So far, the one impacted the most is CP Rail. They own it for the long term, can't be replicated, monopoly. It has been hit, but has moved mostly sideways. Looking at the stock action over the last couple of days, it looks as though tariffs are all priced in and the market's looking through that.
A lot of things aren't affected by tariffs. The overall economy might get softer and it looks as though it is, and the consumer might be affected. Will auto manufacturers be affected? Yes, 100%. But they don't affect the earnings from MSFT. In Canada, earnings for a BN would be affected by interest rates and the 10-year bond yield. And the budget is way more important to the 10-year bond yield and how that affects the stock market. Those things are more important than tariffs.
That's why the market has digested tariffs so quickly. They have a specific impact on this little part of the stock market, but not the big picture.
Overview. The DOW is taking another hit today, we are near the year’s low. As the market is moving up and down, it is hitting lower highs and lower lows. 23,300 will be an important point for the Dow. We might hit that very soon, yielding our first major correction since 2009. We are down about 10% for the year but we could hit 20% or 25%. We are having the correction now because: (1) The Federal Reserve is increasing the cost of money, which reduces the value of earnings; (2) The money supply is tightening. The US money supply was growing at a rate of over 7% per year but is now down at 4% under the MZM terminology (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply). If you want 3% economic growth and 2% to 3% inflation, you need 5% or 6% money growth or more. The money supply is not growing fast enough and so money is getting tighter and that in turn drives the US dollar higher. (3) The amount of debt that has to be raised is enormous, but the Fed is not buying more and Europe is not buying more, so interest rates are rising. So money is more expensive and tighter. He thinks this is why the market is correcting. He thinks the DOW could go down 3000 over the next three months and he thinks people should be cautious about buying today, and hold onto cash, because there will be great buying opportunities late in Q3 or in Q4. He thinks energy stocks could be caught up in this.