Opinions
John Ewing
First Capital Realty
FCR-T
BUY
Jul 04, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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It owns retail shopping centres across Canada focused on grocery and pharmacy and is in the best markets. The strength and quality of its tenants is good and it has one of the best shopping centre portfolios globally. It trades at a great discount to the private market value of its real estate net asset value. He agrees with the company's estimate of a share price of $23. Has had some shareholder activism lately and he is hopeful for a strategic review. Yield is 4.7%. Buy 4 Hold 3 Sell 1.
Favourite investment in grocery-anchored shopping centres. Very defensive, with necessity-based tenants. Owns the best portfolio globally in this space. Can double size of portfolio based on what they own today. Board refreshment with timely skills. 35% discount to NAV. Yield is 5.57%.
(Analysts’ price target is $19.31)One of his largest weights. Core portfolio of necessity-based real estate, 80% grocery anchored. 35% discount to NAV today. Additional space coming online in next 3 years, which should help reduce leverage and help earnings growth. Great name in this environment. Yields close to 6%.
One of his largest holdings. One of the highest-quality grocery-anchored shopping-centre portfolios globally. Trades at upwards of 25% discount to private market value. Management seeking to increase value by selling non-core properties and reducing debt. Yield is 4.8%.
(Analysts’ price target is $20.30)Aims to own the finest grocery-anchored real estate across Canada. High quality. He thinks it's the best globally. 30% discount to NAV. Get paid to wait while the value gap closes. Goal is to grow earnings and NAV by 3% a year for 3 years. Defensive plus growth. Yield is 5.3%.
(Analysts’ price target is $20.11)Pre-eminent portfolio in the space. Necessity-based real estate in Canada's urban centres, with half in Toronto. Already owns future development space. Near peak occupancy, so there's potential for positive inflection in retail rents. Good growth prospects, at 25% discount to NAV. Yield is 5.14%.
(Analysts’ price target is $20.02)
Grocery-anchored retail in major cities in Canada. Most in-demand asset class in real estate today. Irreplaceable portfolio of great retail properties. World-class assets. Will have great rent growth, as new builds are too costly. Potential down the road to build apartments or condos on top of current sites, further adding to value over time.