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What is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)?
A REIT is defined as a company that owns, operates, or finances income-generating real estate. REITs trade like stocks on major exchanges and offer investors a way to gain exposure to the real estate sector with much lower capital requirements than traditional forms of real estate investing and a steady income stream. A REIT company purchases income-producing properties, leases them, collects rents on the properties, and then redistributes that income to shareholders. REITs usually purchase properties with debt, earn cash flows to service that debt, and over time use the equity in those properties to increase their financial leverage and acquire more properties.
There are many different types of REITs that exist, and many specialize in various industries, such as the apartment building, cell tower, data center, hotels, healthcare, offices, retail centers, and warehouses industries. REITs are great for real estate exposure and stable cash flows, but they are also usually associated with low growth and are subject to interest rate and market risks.
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It rallied 1.7% on a very choppy day, but the reason is unclear. The market is betting that Trump will let NVDA sell $50 billion of chips this year and China will cut a deal with the U.S. with its rare earths, which the U.S. needs. Who knows what will happen? Anything can happen. If the sale is blocked, then wouldn't this encourage to invest more in making its own chips?
Jumped today by 10% after Trump announced 50% tariffs on steel; this will let US steelmakers raise prices. NUE peaked at $180 in April 2024, then has slid below $120, but is now mounting a comeback, driven by tariffs. BMO upgraded it today. But he wonders if higher tariffs will help the US steelmakers immediately, and tariffs alone aren't a reason to buy the stock. Rather, he'd buy on weakness. Look what happened during the 2018 tariffs--NUE shares actually fell, though popped occasionally. He'd like to see signals that the overall economy is thriving and that there is demand for steel.
He never liked this. Looking at the S&P's summer performance: 5 of 10 summers between 2000-2009 where down and the average summer performance was -1%, though the median was +0.5%. 2002 was the worst summer at -14.2%. 2001 and 2008 were also negative years. So, sell in May didn't give you an edge at all. Consider 2010-2019: the summer was positive 7 of 10 times, with an average 1.2% rise and 3% median. 2011 was the worst summer at -9.4%. From 2020-2024: the S&P rose 4 of 5 summer at a 6.6% average or 7.6% median. Over the past 25 summers: up 16 of 25 summers, 1.4% average and 2.7% median. So, selling in May and going away is a loser this century.
They just reported and today held their investors' call. They say that high prices are scaring away customers with spending starting to slow last January. There was weakenss in crackers and chips. Not helping are the new 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, precisely what Campbell soup cans are made of. The company blames general economic weakness, but don't mention the GLP-1 drug. The latter makes sense, not general economic weakness. CPB pays a safe 4.5% dividend, but no, it isn't worth getting paid to wait, not with the weight-loss drugs still selling.
NFG is down 12% year-to-date, but has had a nice bounce from its April lows and amid good earnings results in May. In late May it was up big as it increased the size of its bought deal financing to advance the Queensway Gold Project to the development stage. The news flow is improving for NFG, and a higher price of gold is also helping to lift goldstocks, but we would like to see its price rise above $3 to signal a potential reversal in its price trend. The company has seen negative price momentum since 2021 and we would prefer to see this reverse before getting more interested in the name.
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