HOLD

Not so sure it's still undervalued. Believes in management's vision to use this company as a West African consolidator. 

BUY

Highest open-pit mine grade in the world. Great asset. Knock against the stock has been the refractory nature of the ore and potential penalties. Even with penalties, this will be stupidly profitable. 

Goodwill with its indigenous partners is a lesson for the whole mining community.

COMMENT
Gold and silver over the next year.

He has no opinion as to where these will be in a year, as he doesn't think in timeframes like that. However over a 5-year timeframe, he thinks gold and silver go much higher. This would be "unfortunate", as the rise would mean difficulties in other parts of his portfolio.

Anyone who doesn't own at least a bit of physical gold in their portfolio is making a mistake. Gold has traditionally done well when there are threats to purchasing power in fiat currencies. Ongoing debt and deficits of all governments make those fears legitimate.

In his experience, precious metals markets have to be led by gold. At some point, once there's been enough momentum in gold, the leadership changes from gold to silver.
 
The bulk of his precious metals portfolio is in gold, for liquidity and insurance purposes. The silver part of his portfolio is purely speculative.

COMMENT
Silver in 5 years.

Difficult to understand the silver market because so much silver is produced as a by-product of other metals. So getting the supply right for silver is hard. When silver runs, it makes up for lots of past sins. You won't need him to tell you, because you're going to see it on the chart in spectacularly dramatic fashion.

His problem is that he never knows why it runs, just that it does. The silver part of his portfolio is purely speculative.

BUY

A must-own for people who can take exploration and development risk. A major Tier 1, high-grade deposit. Unfortunately a long way from infrastructure, so upfront capex is high. Sold off dramatically because of Victoria Gold and fears of future permitting difficulties. Will prevail in Yukon politics.

Exploration excitement still ongoing. Permitting hasn't begun.

DON'T BUY

Will respond to copper prices if those prices move up. Tier 2 assets. Impressed with financial backing of the company. Not considering buying.

BUY

In effect, a merchant company. Thrives by adding expertise and capital to other mining companies. He's long this one.

Disclosure: Fan of the family, the founder was his mentor.

BUY

Fairly substantial discount to market cap of its portfolio, and you get the company's own asset base for free. He's a really big fan of free. Yes, this is a way to buy NXE cheaper.

Price of uranium doesn't really need to go up, as it's above the incentive price. What's really changed in uranium is that it's gone from a spot market to a term market. Producers will now be able to sign agreements without being slaves to the spot market.

WATCH

A fan, but doesn't own. Recent acquisition will help use free cashflow against tax-loss carryforwards. Won't buy until he sees resolution of issue at Jerritt Canyon. Big fan of CEO and track record.

HOLD

Surprised it didn't perform better after a sterling quarter. Could be a prime beneficiary if (emphasis here) Trump can revitalize Keystone.

TOP PICK

He likes out-of-favour assets. Oil & gas are out of favour, especially in Africa. Wonderful job of paying down debt from latest acquisition. Can now focus on returning cashflow to shareholders, while still exploring Nigeria and Namibia. 

Trades at 50% discount to net present value of existing Nigerian assets, which means you get everything else for less than free. Still has backing from the successful Lundin family. Yield is 4%.

(Analysts’ price target is $3.33)
TOP PICK

Also a Lundin Group company. Consistent in buying back shares. Stock's substantially undervalued. Heavy oil producer. Potential beneficiary of de-bottlenecking Keystone. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.27)
TOP PICK

Cheapest of the intermediate royalty companies, but best cashflow pipeline. Based in London UK and there aren't a lot of royalty companies there. Principal source of free cashflow is coal, decidedly out of favour. Royalties from coal will go down over next 3-5 years.

The market's missing its wonderful portfolio of other assets. One of 2 things will happen. Either share price goes up, or it gets consolidated by another mid-tier, or larger, royalty company. Would make a wonderful tuck-in acquisition. Yield is 4%.

(Analysts’ price target is $2.43)
COMMENT
Commodities on his radar.

Loves stuff that's hated. We're coming to the phase where lithium is going to be hated, if RIO doesn't buy up the entire lithium industry. Exploration has probably found 150 lithium deposits worldwide, and maybe 10 will make it to production. So he's looking at lithium for 2025-2026.

BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

It is mainly (probably) Trump related. His 'Department Of Government Efficiency' is deisgned to cut costs and unnecessary spending in the government. This includes military spending and the money allocated towards contractors such as LHX. Whether this will actually a meaningful is unclear. We think LHX looks good however, and analysts have been bullish on margin expansion in future years.
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