COMMENT
Cautious of headlines about Trump's impact on economy.

We can get too fussed. There's a lot of time between now and January 20, and there will be positive and negative headlines in that time. You have to look at the overall economy. The US, in particular, is in a pretty good spot. Inflation data today was in line with expectations, employment data is still fairly strong, and interest rates are on their way down (though not quite as fast as the plan was earlier this year). 

When you see the news and have a knee-jerk reaction, it's important to not necessarily trade on that. Read the news, digest it, but don't react right away.

COMMENT
Rates are more important than politics.

Yes. Ultimately, all of these headlines are going to move prices over the short term. But long term, you want to find companies that can growth their free cashflow and produce shareholder yield. Shareholder yield is a combination of dividends, share buybacks, and debt reduction. As an investor for the long term, ask yourself what's good about this company, and why is it going to be worth more in the future?

COMMENT
Wealth effect continues to mask struggles of paycheque-to-paycheque in US.

Those who went into Covid with assets have done exceptionally well. Houses and stocks have increased in value. Your wealth has been tied to prices going higher as a result of inflation. If you went into Covid without assets, and the source of your wealth is your paycheque, you've seen inflation obliterate your purchasing power. 

The wealthy 1/3 now accounts for about 2/3 of consumer spending. Consumer spending isn't represented equally within the population. The rich are really driving the economy, the poor folks are barely getting by. That's why we're seeing outcomes in elections that we wouldn't normally expect.

WEAK BUY

Fantastic year. Strength is its salesforce and company longevity. Some cloud offerings, but a bit behind. Significant debt. Might hold in a basket, wouldn't be his only AI play. Chart looks as though it will continue higher.

HOLD

Getting more into defense simulation, away from medical. Challenged by fixed-price contracts, but many are rolling off and will be renegotiated with inflation-escalator clauses. Has been volatile. Bright future. Holds it in client TFSAs. 

COMMENT
TFSA holdings.

Put your Canadian stocks here, as the dividends are free from withholding tax. If you have US or international dividend payers in a TFSA, they could be subject to withholding tax.

PARTIAL SELL

Had its day in the sun, which will likely continue for a time. Be cognizant of what percent of your portfolio is in NVDA (higher percentage brings higher risk); his maximum position size is 6%. A number of companies are trying to skirt NVDA and build their own chips. At some point its lead will decline, though no one knows when.

HOLD

Money sent to them is invested as a short-term float before paying it out, so interest rates matter. Rates coming down means potentially less income earned. He's held for last 10 years and would never sell.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Ran too far, too fast. Has come down more in line with expectations. Pattern:  spends $$ on R&D, creates a blockbuster drug, stock runs up, comes back down to consolidate. He'd add around $100.

BUY
What to choose from the Brookfield stable?

One of his go-to names in the Brookfield suite. If you're after growth, look at BN; the parent that owns all the entities underneath, including a big chunk of BAM. Private asset markets are still quite strong. Good for the younger folks who are looking for more torque higher.

BAM deals with third-party capital that comes in. Higher dividend, but perhaps a bit less growth. Good if you're in retirement or approaching it. Neat that it's done as well as BN, but you're getting the nice dividend too.

Both in client TFSAs.

BUY
What to choose from the Brookfield stable?

One of his go-to names in the Brookfield suite. If you're after growth, look at BN; the parent that owns all the entities underneath, including a big chunk of BAM. Private asset markets are still quite strong. Good for the younger folks who are looking for more torque higher.

BAM deals with third-party capital that comes in. Higher dividend, but perhaps a bit less growth. Good if you're in retirement or approaching it. Neat that it's done as well as BN, but you're getting the nice dividend too.

Both in client TFSAs.

PARTIAL SELL
Hold on or take gains?

Whether to take gains is a function of percentage in your portfolio. 5% is OK, but if 10% or more think about taking some off the table. Too big to fail. Exceptional job cost-cutting. May be trending toward deregulation, so US domestic banks would be more shielded.

WEAK BUY

The REIT world is very interest-rate sensitive, as is your house. Watch your real estate exposure across your net worth. If you didn't own a house, an excellent play. Low vacancy, largest Canadian provider.

RISKY

Not totally clear what it does; some sort of AI and global surveillance. Look at stock options being granted to see how often shares are diluted. Plus, look at earnings today and future projections; any wobble could cause the stock to fall.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 13/23, Up 55%)

Insurance doing exceptionally well. Recently bought ZZZ. Things are chugging along well. Dividend raised from $10 to $15, significant increase. Still at a discount on price to book. In client TFSAs. Very keen on it.

Just as with BRK, its insurance business takes in premiums, which get invested in other side businesses. So it's an insurance business with other assets on the side.