Today, Stockchase Insights commented about whether RY-T, SHOP-T, TMG-X are stocks to buy or sell.
SHOP reports November 12th pre-market. Estimates call for Revenue of C$2.94B and EPS of 38c. We think the stock has good potential to beat these estimates somewhat given pricing changes and resilience with consumer and e-commerce demand. There are some mixed views on the latter two factors however, so we are cautiously optimistic given some of the volatility that SHOP saw earlier on in the year. Risks are a slow down in consumer and economic conditions as well as any margin pressures. SHOP has previously been punished for declines in guidance on margins, so improving profitability is something that the market is demanding. Catalysts for growth are increasing the number of merchants on SHOP's platform, having more merchants upgrade their subscription tier, and increasing GMV. We also think that the growth in the offline B2B transaction side of the business could be a catalyst to drive the stock higher.
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RY is certainly he leader in terms of size amongst the big Canadian bank stocks. NA has actually outperformed over numerous time periods, but over a three year timeframe, RY has been number 1. We would not say it is too late to purchase. Bank stocks and in particular RY have done a great job of returning capital to shareholders through dividend growth over recent years acting as relatively low risk investments. At 14x forward earnings, we think it is buyable.
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The top ten names with the highest dividend growth rate in the last ten years:
In order to seek those life-changing stocks, we think investors need to look back before looking forward. Here is the top ten Canadian stocks with the best 10-year track record of dividend growth.
ELF E-L Financial Corporation Limited 41%
QBRA Quebecor Inc. 37%
GSY goeasy Ltd. 27%
QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc 25%
PRVUN Pro Real Estate Investment Trust 23%
ATD Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. 23%
GCGA Guardian Capital Group Limited 21%
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited 20%
CCLB CCL Industries Inc. 20%
WFG West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. 19%
Ten years is a long time, and it is a respectable record to study. Although the historical track record does not mean these companies would continue to do so in the foreseeable future, it could be a starting point for investors to look for ideas. The list above already includes some of the high-conviction names in our model portfolio, including goeasy Ltd. (GSY) ; Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD); Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ), and CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B). We think the probabilities are high that these names will continue to do well for long-term investors five or ten years from now.
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TMG is a small-cap name that develops pollution control products and heat recovery systems. TMG’s revenue growth was solid over the last two years, above 20% on average two years in a row. As a result, TMG just became profitable due to strong organic growth. TMG’s balance sheet is strong, with $3.1M of net cash (8% of market cap). TMG has been generating strong cash flow with limited capex required. TMG is expected to grow by double digits over the next few years. Overall, a very interesting name, but with a highly illiquid trading volume, investors need to get comfortable with the liquidity to own names like TMG.
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