Okay using inverse ETFs, but better to stay in 1x leverage. Can use them short term. In the short run, there could be more pull back. Does not think we will see much below $4,100 or $4,200 this year. Looking for more pullback but not a whole lot more.
Energy prices. The energy price melt up is probably transitory. There has been underinvestment in replenishing due to the greening of the world. The demand side is not curtailed as fast as the green side wants to see. The demand for energy is still relatively high. Depletion will come into play. Since we have not reinvested in the past, there could be meaningful upside pressure on prices.
Stagflation. There are many trends are pointing to stagflation. Productivity and population are the two key factors. Productivity may go up thanks to technology even though the work force may shrink slightly. There are many signs of stagflation coming. Bond yields are breaking out, and with the yield curve's behaviour, we are seeing that the bond market will push back. Equity risk premium will rise and we will get some compression in PE.
Market. There are sector dynamics going into office space. Post-pandemic you would expect numbers to increase but he is trying to estimate what percentage of workers will stay working from home. The office sector is one to continue to avoid as we are too far from the bottom. Office vacancies are the highest since the '90s. XRE-T collapsed at the start of COVID but has not got back to where it was pre-pandemic. It has a mix of winners, post-pandemic, retail, and office. These later sectors SHOULD suffer post-pandemic. You should not look at one ETF overall.
It is a large corporation rather than a REIT. The corporation has always traded at a big discount to an underlying value. It does not pay a distribution and has a valuation discount. It owns both office and retail. Both are sectors that have been hurt during the pandemic. It is hard to think about a catalyst that will close the gap of discount to value. For those that are patient and willing, it is something to look at.
property mngmnt / investment
It has many positive attributes: Strong management, great business model and a niche business model. Their tenant usage is a smaller model. They are well positioned. They can't fight the tide. It is a difficult operating market. There are high vacancies there and they have to be competitive in signing new leases. He would not own it today.
investment companies / funds
It is being bought in an all cash deal. There is a nice spread for those that are willing to take advantage of the take-out. To move out, he would suggest US real estate traded in Canada – see his Top Picks today. Dream (DIR.UN-T) is another to take a look at.