Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 17, 2018

(A Top Pick July 11, 2017. Up 6%). The too-big-to-fail banks have finally recovered and the market trusts their balance sheets. They have given dividend increases and just passed the stress tests. His model price shows a 6% upside but they need to perform well again before rising further.

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Citigroup Inc. (C-N)
July 17, 2018

(A Top Pick July 11, 2017. Up 6%). The too-big-to-fail banks have finally recovered and the market trusts their balance sheets. They have given dividend increases and just passed the stress tests. His model price shows a 6% upside but they need to perform well again before rising further.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 17, 2018

(A Top Pick July 11, 2017. Down 7%). This has gone down even as interest rates have come up. He is holding with it, with a very small position. Life insurers are not participating in the financials rally as much as he expected. His model price shows a 47% upside, but the market appears to dislike some aspect of MetLife’s balance sheet and he is not sure what that is. Because he is not sure what is wrong, he would not buy it.

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Metlife (MET-N)
July 17, 2018

(A Top Pick July 11, 2017. Down 7%). This has gone down even as interest rates have come up. He is holding with it, with a very small position. Life insurers are not participating in the financials rally as much as he expected. His model price shows a 47% upside, but the market appears to dislike some aspect of MetLife’s balance sheet and he is not sure what that is. Because he is not sure what is wrong, he would not buy it.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 17, 2018

He likes this stock. His model price is $140, 14% higher than the current price. The dividend is covered by the earnings. He expects it to rise with the market through year-end, if the market rises. However, he thinks there is better value elsewhere.

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He likes this stock. His model price is $140, 14% higher than the current price. The dividend is covered by the earnings. He expects it to rise with the market through year-end, if the market rises. However, he thinks there is better value elsewhere.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 17, 2018

This is a cyclical stock. Over half of its business goes to China. It is at peak earnings. His model price is $196.21, which is a 250% upside, but this stock never trades on its earnings because it is cyclical. He expects the stock to trade over and under his EBB+3 price level which, a year from now, is $82, still much higher than its current price around $60. The stock pays no dividend.

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This is a cyclical stock. Over half of its business goes to China. It is at peak earnings. His model price is $196.21, which is a 250% upside, but this stock never trades on its earnings because it is cyclical. He expects the stock to trade over and under his EBB+3 price level which, a year from now, is $82, still much higher than its current price around $60. The stock pays no dividend.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 17, 2018

This has negative equity (negative price to book). They blew out all their equity in stock buybacks and other payouts. Passive investing has created a growing trend among S&P-500 companies to ignore their valuation because ETF investors don’t do any analysis. This is evident among defense stocks, consumer discretionary companies, consumer staples, and so on. He does not see companies like this going higher and if the company ever stumbles, there is no book value to fall back on.

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McDonalds (MCD-N)
July 17, 2018

This has negative equity (negative price to book). They blew out all their equity in stock buybacks and other payouts. Passive investing has created a growing trend among S&P-500 companies to ignore their valuation because ETF investors don’t do any analysis. This is evident among defense stocks, consumer discretionary companies, consumer staples, and so on. He does not see companies like this going higher and if the company ever stumbles, there is no book value to fall back on.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 17, 2018

This is right in the middle of his “zone.” It could go up or down from here. His model price is $121.13, but this is a cyclical stock near the end of the cycle, so it is unlikely to reach or hold that price. He would buy at $71 and sell at $98. At this price, he would do neither.

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This is right in the middle of his “zone.” It could go up or down from here. His model price is $121.13, but this is a cyclical stock near the end of the cycle, so it is unlikely to reach or hold that price. He would buy at $71 and sell at $98. At this price, he would do neither.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 17, 2018

Has been trading down like WestJet. If it continues its negative trend, it is likely to get to $18.85. Like WestJet, this could rally under the right conditions. He would buy at $18.85, but not now. If it dropped below $18.85, he would sell and buy in again around $15.46.

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Air Canada (AC-T)
July 17, 2018

Has been trading down like WestJet. If it continues its negative trend, it is likely to get to $18.85. Like WestJet, this could rally under the right conditions. He would buy at $18.85, but not now. If it dropped below $18.85, he would sell and buy in again around $15.46.