Stockchase Opinions

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) Global X US 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Corporate Class HTB-T TOP PICK Apr 08, 2025

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

HTB is a low-MER ETF that trades in Canadian dollars which holds US treasury bills with a 7-10 year maturity -- a safe haven for parking cash.  As a Corporate Class ETF, it does not pay any interest or distributions, making it highly tax efficient for non-registered accounts -- when you sell you generate a capital gain.  The underlying portfolio has a current average yield to maturity of 4.1%.  Yield 0%    

$60.520

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly As the market valuations continue to be priced at perfection this is a defensive Top Pick. This low MER ETF tracks US 7-10 year Treasuries -- a safe haven during market down turns. What makes this interesting as well, from an Canadian investor's perspective, is that it is priced in Canadian dollars. This will add another kicker in a market down turn as we expect a flight to the US dollar safety at some point. We would buy this with a $60 stop-loss. Yield 0%
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 25/20, Down 6%) It is very similar to the story with PHYS-N that he just talked about. Bonds are what we buy when there is the potential of uncertainty. We saw unprecedented cuts in yield. You want to revisit and see how this massive equity rally has caused your portfolio to become unbalanced. Over the next 12 to 18 months, the roll-out of the vaccine will not be perfect so there is lots of room for uncertainty along the way.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 20/20, Down 10%) A classic scenario where we were coming out of the pandemic and central banks were active. This has created a headwind for bonds. This is a diversifier. If we get inflation or hiccups in the economy, investors will start worrying of return of capital rather than return on capital. A nice complement to other equity holdings in the portfolio.
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate HTB as a TOP PICK. This low MER ETF tracks US 7-10 year Treasuries -- a safe haven during market down turns. Priced in Canadian dollars, this would likely add another kicker in a market down turn as we expect a flight to the US dollar safety at some point. We would buy this with a stop loss at $57.50, holding as insurance against a market downturn. Yield 0%
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 21/21, Down 4.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with HTB has triggered its stop at $57.50. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with the previous buy recommendation, this results in a net investment loss of 9.2%. We will watch for another entry point.
TOP PICK
The 60/40 portfolio split is over. We're now in poor global growth with tightening lending conditions. He expects a recession. Priority is in preserving capital. This offers safety in the US treasury and US dollars. Own this in USD.
TOP PICK
The 60/40 portfolio regime has changed. There is likely a growth shock and recession coming. The primary goal of a portfolio now is going to be a return of our capital, not return on our capital. You should own in U.S. dollars as well. Note that he doesn't own the Top Pick ETF's but makes related purchases which are Futures based
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 27/22, Up 3%) It has been a rough year for bonds but the losses in this ETF are lessened due to the appreciating USD. You may want to come back to Canadian holdings.
TOP PICK

Yield curve indicating that interest rates are expecting. Will see value in this product. Expecting US Government bonds to breakout. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 03/24, Up 7%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Strong performance with interest rates falling. Tends to perform well in summer months, starting to see a pullback. Coming up to a time when government bonds tend not to perform so well. Better places to be now.

Disclosure:  He works for Global X (previously Horizons).