Brian Milner Harley Davidson HOG-N TOP PICK Jul 30, 2004

(A Top Pick Oct 20/20, Up 63.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG continues to do well. We are now recommending to trail up the stop (from $29) to $38. If triggered, this would all but guarantee an investment return of 27% when considering the recommendation to cover 50% previously.

(A Top Pick Oct 20/20, Up 30.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG has triggered its stop at $38. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. Combined with the previous recommendation to cover half, this results in a net investment return of 27%.

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly The company is interested in spinning off its EV line, which could bring good value (think Tesla trading at 80x earnings). The company is currently trading at 9x and recently reported earnings support a healthy ROE of 27%. Supply chain issues and microchip shortages have slowed sales growth, but earnings still met expectations and it is sign the demand is outstripping its supply -- a good thing. The company has prudently used some cash to retire debt. It's small dividend is supported by a payout ratio under 15% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop loss at $28, looking to achieve $52 -- upside potential over 40%. Yield 1.64% (Analysts’ price target is $52.16)

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate HOG as a TOP PICK. The company last month announced a two week production shut down out of an abundance of caution relating to a third-party supplier component. That period has passed now and the stock has rebounded back to where it traded prior to the announcement. We continue to like that it trades at only 9x earnings and 2x book and has a dividend backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. It has been using cash to aggressively retire debt early and buy back shares. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $28, looking to achieve $51 -- upside over 40%. Yield 1.7% (Analysts’ price target is $51.12)

(A Top Pick Jun 02/22, Up 15.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK is progressing well. We now recommend trailing up the stop (from $28) to $34.

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We again reiterate HOG as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings beat expectations and support a robust 27% ROE. We continue to like that it trades at only 9x earnings compared to peers at19x and at 2.5x book. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. It has managed to keep cash reserves level, while buying back shares. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $34.00, looking to achieve $48.50-- upside over 17%. Yield 1.5% (Analysts’ price target is $48.13)

(A Top Pick Dec 22/22, Up 27%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG has achieved its objective at $48.50.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $34) to $42.  If triggered, this would result in a net investment gain of 18%, when combined with this recommendation to cover half.  

(A Top Pick Dec 22/22, Up 10.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with HOG has triggered its stop at $42.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  This will result in a net investment gain of 18%, when combined with our previous recommendation to cover half the position.