Market Update:

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US rose 2.2% in April, coming in line with market expectations, indicating rate cut may eventually come as inflation gets back to the target level. In addition, the US inflation eases as the consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% in April, in line with expectation but down from 3.5% last month, marking the smallest increase since 2021. The Canadian dollar was 73.5 cents USD. The U.S. S&P500 ended the week up 1.2%, while the TSX was up 0.3%.

It was a mixed week of greens and reds. Materials rose 2.6%, while financials and technology gained 0.5% each. Consumer discretionary edged up by 0.2%. Industrials slid by 1.3%, while energy and real estate gave up 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively. Consume staple ended the week flat. The most heavily traded shares by volume were Tilray Brands, Fission Uranium, and Bitfarms.
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Last minute push extended markets to record highs on Friday (May 17). Next week will present upcoming earnings, and will be indicative of economy. Many companies outside of "Big Tech" are reporting record earnings - which means strength in economy is extending past tech. Retail blue chip stocks like Target & Walmart are looking strong as well. NVIDIA earnings report next will is what everybody is waiting for. Indicates strength in generative A.I. & accelerated computing. Chips from NVIDIA are stronger than anything on the market - so in some ways, company deserves valuation. However, expect volatility from NVIDIA - would advise investors to "own" the stock rather than trade it. Bottom line is that lots of upcoming earnings coming up. 

Remains bullish on markets. Markets have had consistent gains since October 2023. Markets appear to be strengthening outside of big tech. Companies with high dividends tend not to growth as much - would rather slow & steady dividend growth (to keep up with inflation. With rising interest rates, important to screen companies that are sensitive to this. Energy, materials & industrial sector's are presenting large amounts of opportunity (Price/Cash Flow very low). 

The longer the bond term, the longer the duration, and the more exposure to interest rates moving up and down. A longer-term bond will likely outperform in a falling rate environment. Not averse to this plan, but better opportunities even at 3.5-4% mid-term bonds. 

You can also get 6-7% on some equities, but it does depend on your time horizon and when you might need the money. If your timeline is 3+ years, a company like ENB or POW would be a better place.

Company Highlight: Aritzia (ATZ)

ATZ operates as an apparel company that focuses on building brand and style rather than just trends. ATZ has gained significant traction and loyalty among consumers in recent years, especially among the young demographic due to its effective social media strategies by leveraging social media (mainly TikTok and Instagram) and influencer strategies. the company demonstrates great execution by not only resuming sales growth, and store expansion but also managing inventory in a more efficient manner. Investors now expect the worst is now behind the company, ATZ is trading at a fair multiple, and we think the company could potentially see a re-rating by the market if ATZ could demonstrate solid execution and resume its previous growth trajectory of double-digits.
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Stock market feels strange as many stocks rising that don't usually correlate. All major stock indexes are at record highs which is defying conventional wisdom. Many investors and pundits are vexed as to the reason behind market strength. Currently "the bears" are very wrong, as strength in markets keeps going. For example, commodities and utilities are rising at the same time. Another rule of thumb - FANG has strength while other sectors fall - is not coming true. It appears many groups of investors are converging (tech/growth, hard assets/value). However, many investors are skeptical - believe consumers will tap out eventually. If interest rates are cut - will further boost economy. Bottom line is that the bull market is an amazing phase (even if investors are wrong). 

Probably the latter. What moves markets is things that aren't known, and this is really known. The Canadian yield curve is inverted, instead of up and to the right. This is because the Canadian economy is not robust, and we are so indebted. Lots of people were caught the wrong way on the direction of interest rates on renewals.

It will hurt the Canadian economy. But not the stock market in general, because it's tethered to global growth and what's happening in the US. A lot of Canadian companies can do very well under that framework.