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MASI is a $5.4B company, which has declined ~32% year-to-date and 31% on a one-year basis. It missed on both sales and estimates in its recent quarter, and management noted it was displeased with results. Reduced guidance was led by assumptions of impatient volumes not returning to levels that management expected and it is not receiving some of the new large orders it anticipated. It trades at a 2.5X forward sales and 27.8X forward earnings multiple, which are both below its 10-year average. Relative to some of its peers, it trades at a cheaper P/E and price-to-sales valuation, but its forward sales and growth estimates are also weak relative to peers. We are not big fans of its negative momentum and poor guidance from management - we would prefer to see a shift in momentum with sales orders before getting more comfortable with the name.
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PZA is a $457.9M company that pays a 6.4% yield. Its performance has been quite resilient over the last few years, and it now trades at a 14.6X forward earnings multiple. PZA operates as a royalty company that collects stable royalty earnings from the franchisee and pays out almost all of its cash flow as distributions. Its balance sheet is decent, with net debt of $39.8M, strong profit margins, and recent sales growth of ~13%. Going forward its sales and earnings are expected to grow in the high-single digits this year, and then ~3% to 5% thereafter, along with inflation. Although growth is not that fast, it is stable, and predictable in earnings and distribution payments. Overall, we like this name for income purposes.
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We would view SYZ as a possible take out, if the stock cannot regain some of its former valuation mutliples. Its transition from 'income' to 'growth' was not easy, but investors are supporting it now. It is trading very close to recent highs and is up 26% YTD so short term momentum is good. But it may still take awhile to get to the old highs. Even not considering its high dividend from before, earnings per share, even with high growth, is expected at 26c next year. That is still well below its range of 45c to 50c in the 2018 to 2020 period. But if SYZ can string together a few years of strong growth it will have a chance to get north of $10 or $11 down the road.
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Have the correct investment expectations:
Risks widely vary across investment markets and products. Be wary of implied rates of return that sound too good to be true, because they probably are, at best, very high risk or, at worst, complete scams. Many investors get attracted to high yields: some derivative products have current yields of 15 per cent or more. But past and current returns are not the same as future returns.
A realistic long-term return for stock investors might be in the eight-per-cent range. For a bond investor, five per cent or so. Don’t chase returns. Don’t envy someone bragging about 20-per-cent returns — they are not you, and they might be taking on huge risks.
But if things do work out for you as an investor, don’t get greedy. If one of your stocks has soared, that’s great, but it likely now represents a big portion of your net worth. As such, any future disappointment in that stock is going to be far more painful. In addition to maintaining realistic expectations, we would also maintain portfolio balance and discipline — always.
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It's frustrating, because shares are declining, but it trades at a low multiple and is profitable. Hold on.