Latest Stock Buy or Sell?

Bond returns have been terrible. It won't give investors what you hoped for. Need to look elsewhere. A big challenge. Could trade here.

From day to day, it will be very choppy. Volatility is telling him we are in a bear market. Not down 20% yet, but over the next 6 months, we will see the US stock market below 20% its peak. Canadian market is a different situation with exposure to energy and commodities. Won't see such a large correction. However, TSX didn't get as much of the upside.

It's been the worse start of the year for the NASDAQ. S&P500 and bonds are also having a bad start. Typical portfolios are not doing well this year. We will probably get a bit of a trading rally.

We will probably get 50 basis point increase this week. They want the overnight rate to 2-2.5% as fast as they can. Then they will pause and re-assess. First quarter GDP results were negative. Although consumption was fine, the Feds will still look at it to decide how much to tighten.

Inflation. Things should moderate eventually. Some of the big accelerators such as rents and car prices should slow. Wage pressure will be sticky. We could see base rate of inflation stick in the 3-4% range. It will be different and more difficult on a policy basis to stimulate.

There is 1.7 trillion in repos. There is money out there to suck up the bonds that are being sold into the market. Over the last month, tax receipts have come in much higher than expected. Funding needs for treasuries will be less than expected.

Job market. Still a decent jobs report. Saw a downtick in labour demand. It is still expanding but right on the line. The Fed may be tightening aggressively could mean a recession.