Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 11, 2017

He doesn’t like falling knives. This one has been a train wreck. They bought Safeway Canada stores about 2-3 years ago, and bungled it spectacularly. They overpaid and over promised. This was at a time when the grocer consumer was becoming more and more price sensitive. Grocery stores have very high operating leverage. As much is their sales are falling, their earnings are falling off a cliff. A big massive beast and is not going to turn around on a dime.

He doesn’t like falling knives. This one has been a train wreck. They bought Safeway Canada stores about 2-3 years ago, and bungled it spectacularly. They overpaid and over promised. This was at a time when the grocer consumer was becoming more and more price sensitive. Grocery stores have very high operating leverage. As much is their sales are falling, their earnings are falling off a cliff. A big massive beast and is not going to turn around on a dime.

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$15.580
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 11, 2017

Canada’s leading outsourcer and IT services company. They got a new CEO in October. A great track record of growing. Organic growth is somewhat tepid, so the company has a history of being a “growth by acquisition” story. This gets a limited trading multiple relative to some of the other more dynamic growth stories in the technology space. Their last large deal was done in 2012, which was a game changer, and was massively accretive to earnings. The company has now almost fully deleveraged their balance sheet, so looks like they are ready to go again. A good, backdoor way to play the rest of the world.

CGI Group (A) (GIB.A-T)
January 11, 2017

Canada’s leading outsourcer and IT services company. They got a new CEO in October. A great track record of growing. Organic growth is somewhat tepid, so the company has a history of being a “growth by acquisition” story. This gets a limited trading multiple relative to some of the other more dynamic growth stories in the technology space. Their last large deal was done in 2012, which was a game changer, and was massively accretive to earnings. The company has now almost fully deleveraged their balance sheet, so looks like they are ready to go again. A good, backdoor way to play the rest of the world.

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$65.270
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 11, 2017

Part of the broader Brookfield family publicly traded entities. He has great respect for management. Big infrastructure, a secular growth area. We will see funds directed to this area from both Canada and the US. Feels there is better exposure through the parent, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.A-T).

Part of the broader Brookfield family publicly traded entities. He has great respect for management. Big infrastructure, a secular growth area. We will see funds directed to this area from both Canada and the US. Feels there is better exposure through the parent, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.A-T).

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$45.340
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 11, 2017

This has been a tremendous growth story over the years. Has some concerns about conventional mutual fund managers as a whole, including this company. Financial services, specifically mutual funds and asset management is a mature industry that is not growing at 2, 3, 5 or 6X GDP growth rates any more. It is becoming more fee competitive. There are costly and disruptive regulatory forces on the horizon. To the extent that management fees will be phased out over time by regulatory action, it is going to prompt a lot of disruption.

IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T)
January 11, 2017

This has been a tremendous growth story over the years. Has some concerns about conventional mutual fund managers as a whole, including this company. Financial services, specifically mutual funds and asset management is a mature industry that is not growing at 2, 3, 5 or 6X GDP growth rates any more. It is becoming more fee competitive. There are costly and disruptive regulatory forces on the horizon. To the extent that management fees will be phased out over time by regulatory action, it is going to prompt a lot of disruption.

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$40.840
Owned
No
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 11, 2017

This has been a tremendous value creator in the Canadian consumer space. The leading convenience store operators in North America. From Québec, they have expanded into the US, Scandinavia and the Baltics, and are poised to make their largest acquisition yet, which should be about 15% accretive to earnings. The founder has aspirations to double the company in size again in the next decade. The industry is still fragmented, and some big chunky assets should still come up on the block in the next couple of years. Dividend yield of 0.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $78.36.)

This has been a tremendous value creator in the Canadian consumer space. The leading convenience store operators in North America. From Québec, they have expanded into the US, Scandinavia and the Baltics, and are poised to make their largest acquisition yet, which should be about 15% accretive to earnings. The founder has aspirations to double the company in size again in the next decade. The industry is still fragmented, and some big chunky assets should still come up on the block in the next couple of years. Dividend yield of 0.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $78.36.)

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$60.100
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 11, 2017

This is the most dynamic tech story in Canada, bar none. It was one of the hottest IPOs in 2015. A dominant platform player, and their solution is e-tailing in a box. Their core market is the small-medium-sized businesses, and the solutions they offer are web development, payment processing, order fulfilment, inventory management, sales promotion, management, shipping and even things like receivables and financing. Revenue grew at 89% in the latest quarter. While not profitable yet, they are making all the right strategic decisions, very reminiscent of what Amazon did in its early days. (Analysts’ price target is $68.42.)

Shopify Inc. (SHOP-T)
January 11, 2017

This is the most dynamic tech story in Canada, bar none. It was one of the hottest IPOs in 2015. A dominant platform player, and their solution is e-tailing in a box. Their core market is the small-medium-sized businesses, and the solutions they offer are web development, payment processing, order fulfilment, inventory management, sales promotion, management, shipping and even things like receivables and financing. Revenue grew at 89% in the latest quarter. While not profitable yet, they are making all the right strategic decisions, very reminiscent of what Amazon did in its early days. (Analysts’ price target is $68.42.)

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$58.720
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 11, 2017

The 35-year run in the bond market is drawing to a close. All insurers are very heavily exposed on their balance sheets and through their general funds to fixed income securities. Whether mortgages, publicly traded bonds, private loans, etc. They’ve managed to claw and scratch and make money in a very repressive interest rate environment for many years. With rates backing up, it should be a tremendous boon to profitability. Trading at 1.25X BV so it is not expensive. Dividend yield of 2.97%. (Analysts’ price target is $24.92.)

Manulife Financial (MFC-T)
January 11, 2017

The 35-year run in the bond market is drawing to a close. All insurers are very heavily exposed on their balance sheets and through their general funds to fixed income securities. Whether mortgages, publicly traded bonds, private loans, etc. They’ve managed to claw and scratch and make money in a very repressive interest rate environment for many years. With rates backing up, it should be a tremendous boon to profitability. Trading at 1.25X BV so it is not expensive. Dividend yield of 2.97%. (Analysts’ price target is $24.92.)

Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$24.880
Owned
Yes