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Toys will always sell, 8 Toy Stocks to Buy in 2019

Melisa R. H. Posted On June 25, 2019
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Toys will always sell, but the toy industry faces serious headwinds. Toys are a highly cyclical business and, despite the S&P hitting all-time highs this week, an economic downturn is expected down the line.

Add to this the ongoing threat of tariffs in the US-China trade war which has prompted CEOs, including Hasbro’s, to lobby Trump to reconsider his tariffs.

It’s also been more than a year after the liquidation of giant retailer, Toys ‘R’ Us, which had a seismic impact on toy manufacturers, Hasbro and Mattel.

Here are the top toymakers and sellers:

🎠 Toys
Canada Stocks

Spin Master Corp (TOY-T)

SpinMaster has been a growing strongly since going public in 2015, renown for innovation and in establishing a global brand, but the Canadian toymaker has been struggling lately. The street respects its management, but expects the stock to go sideways for a while.

Spin Master Corp (TOY-T) — Stockchase
Spin Master Corp (TOY-T) — Stockchase

Opinion about TOY-T: A definite series of lower highs and lower lows. Continues to languish, downtrend remains in place. Value trap. Unless something changes, just avoid. So many other good places to put your $$ to work.

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Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd (CTC-T)

Yes, the Canadian icon sells toys, lots of them, branding this department the Kids’ Zone. The stock itself is facing various headwinds from e-commerce and leverage from recent acquisitions that the company is still digesting. The recent pullback may offer a buying opportunity, though long-term prospects remain positive.

Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd (CTC-T) — Stockchase
Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd (CTC-T) — Stockchase

Opinion about CTC-T: Traditional bricks and mortar business that will face competition from eCommerce. Undifferentiated shopping experience that is not enjoyable. Discretionary product offering makes it difficult to retain customers. Would not recommend investing at this time. Housing slowdown in Canada will also be hard on the business. 

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Indigo Books & Music Inc. (IDG-T)

Canada’s dominant bookseller also offers a robust toy section, but Indigo has taken a hit after missing its earnings in the last four quarters.

Indigo Books & Music Inc. (IDG-T) — Stockchase
Indigo Books & Music Inc. (IDG-T) — Stockchase

Opinion about IDG-T: Has had a huge run and is not sure he would be courageous enough to get onboard at this point. Management has done a remarkable job of building this. He would look for a little lower entry point.

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Fairfax Financial (FFH-T)

Canada’s Berkshire-Hathaway has endured some big swings in its chart, but investors continue to bet on Prem Watsa’s investing acumen to steer his company to calmer waters with fresh investments in BlackBerry, India and even Toys ‘R’ Us (Canada).

Fairfax Financial (FFH-T) — Stockchase
Fairfax Financial (FFH-T) — Stockchase

Opinion about FFH-T: What explains its tremendous performance? Good operational management long term. Stock's more than doubled in the last year and a half, and he'd have to dig to find out why. Value, instead of growth, has been in favour for the last 6 months or so. Its counterpart, BRK.B, has also done well…

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US Stocks

Mattel (MAT-Q)

Still one of America’s largest toymakers, Mattel has been struggling for the past few years in the face of e-commerce. Losing retailer Toys ‘R’ Us didn’t help. The latest CEO has yet to right this ship, while some investors hope for a buyout to end this company’s woes.

Mattel (MAT-Q) — Stockchase
Mattel (MAT-Q) — Stockchase

Opinion about MAT-Q: They had a mixed quarter: a slight revenue miss, but a strong earnings beat due to great gross margins. However, management lowered the revenue outlook, raised gross margins outlook and left the earnings guidance unchanged.

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Hasbro Inc (HAS-Q)

In contrast to Mattel, Hasbro’s stock price has climbed over the past five years, despite Toys ‘R’ Us’ exit in early 2018. Business is so good that Hasbro even opened a movie studio along the lines of Marvel. However, Hasbro faces higher costs in the face of Trump’s tariffs in the face of the ongoing US-China trade war.

Hasbro Inc (HAS-Q) — Stockchase
Hasbro Inc (HAS-Q) — Stockchase

Opinion about HAS-Q: Hasbro, Inc. engages in the provision of children and family leisure time products and services with a portfolio of brands and entertainment properties. The firm's brands of toys include Power Rangers, Magic: The Gathering, Monopoly, My Little Pony, Nerf, Play-Doh and Transformers. It operates through the following segments: Consumer Products, Wizards of…

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Home Depot (HD-N)

As the grown-ups buy tools, the kids play with toys at Home Depot. This sector has some insulation from e-commerce, so the stock continues to do well as homeowners renovate their houses in this late inning of the economic cycle.

Home Depot (HD-N) — Stockchase
Home Depot (HD-N) — Stockchase

Opinion about HD-N: He wouldn't buy at this point, consumer is still very weak. YOY organic growth is negative. Still trades at a fairly hefty premium compared to the market and to its own historical levels. He'd wait till consumer and housing are stronger.

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Big Lots Inc (BIG-N)

A big-box retailer like Costco and Wal-Mart, Big Lots has locations in the U.S., though it failed to break into Canada. Despite beating earnings the last two quarters and underoing a store remodeling campaign, Big Lots stock (and sales) has been struggling since peaking in January 2018.

Big Lots Inc (BIG-N) — Stockchase
Big Lots Inc (BIG-N) — Stockchase

Opinion about BIG-N: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. BIG's small size ($141M) and debt ($2.3B) and losses ($180M last year) do make it very financially risky. Bloomberg calculates a 'default risk ratio' and it is 27.3%, about as high as we see on a company that has yet to restructure.…

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