Earning Reports to Watch (Feb 04-08)

Stores may or may not be impacted by Ontario government rolling out more retail locations. The Pellers stepped down from the board, possibly planning a bid to privatize the company but he's not really sure.

Has had a huge run and is not sure he would be courageous enough to get onboard at this point. Management has done a remarkable job of building this. He would look for a little lower entry point.

Affinity for a product is different from investing in a stock. Don't touch until gets above $13.50. Stock seems to be pausing and could continue dropping, which would be confirmed by a drop below $12, and then you should get out. Thinly traded is a problem, as you don't want to buy a stock you…

He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in the consumer staples…

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Debt becoming a concern. Delivery and take-out only sources of sales. Special dividend paid this quarter. Dividend reinstated at a lower rate.

Good proxy for health of consumers in Canada. Luxury item that is discretionary. Hard to excited about this style of business. Not seeing major spending from average population. Better options for investors out there. 

He is not covering them right now. He is looking for extraordinary stocks priced for growth. This one is OK but there are better places to be.

Is fairly illiquid, but profitable and pays a 6.6% dividend. Price targets are high, so there's a runway ahead. But two-thirds of the business is concentrated in Canada, and a big risk is if song royalties rise. It's profitable though. He's watching it.

(A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 12%)Convertible 8% 2022 bonds He owned the Yellow senior bonds, but then moved into these convertibles. Most of their revenues are in digital, but that has struggled. New management has cut costs a lot until free cash flow now stands around $100 million this year. Their EBITDA margins are…

(A Top Pick Jul 27/17, Down 6%) Volatile. It's come down a lot, but there's a lot of upside ahead. Well-managed. They can make accretive acqusitions. Their problems integrating some businesses are behind them and they now have a strong runway ahead.

(A Top Pick Sep 19/24, Down 1.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with FTT has triggered its stop at $38.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. 

It’s under review by the government whether the takeover will take place. You’re dealing with regulatory uncertainty right now. If you bought it before the takeover, unless you’re in tune with what will happen, he wouldn’t own the stock any longer. The price is fair.

(A Top Pick Feb 27/23, Down 28%)Disappointing growth in EV equipment. Rolled over and he got stopped out. Wasn't making higher highs and higher lows, no longer in an uptrend. In your portfolio, you have to quickly carve out the ones that aren't working before they hurt you.

Always likes to have a pick for people looking for income. Gives you a bit of opportunity for growth and income for a very long  time. Very diversified, global. Payout ratio is quite reasonable, so a safety play for income. Yield is 4.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $52.06)

Chart appears to be range bound. Would recommend a small position, or watching for leg ups. 

BBU vs. BN Own BN, because it's the mothership; everything flows to them. BN has been under pressure for owning office real estate, which is very undervalued and will take time to resolve. They own a big stake in BAM, which is the gem in this lot, because BAM collects healthy fees which flow to…

Very strong Canadian company that doesn't get enough attention from the markets. Last quarter starting to prove business prospects. Landing gear in very high demand within airline sector. Trading at discount to other names in the sector. Very high barriers to entry within the business. Margins continue to expand - will be good for cash…

Cobalt is attractive but this is not a cheap producer, because they're in Canada and not Russia or Congo.

This has been quite erratic and trading in quite a wide range. He’s been seeing contraction in breadth in forest companies, so is a little cautious on this area. If he had to focus in one space, it would be on lumber which looks attractive. You can use a basket of them through the ETF…

Homebuilding stocks in the US have been going straight up, but Canadian forestry stocks have been going the other way. WFG has done the best in holding its share price.IFP and CFP have really started to bottom on the charts. He hasn't done enough digging to know who has a better earnings profile. But looking…

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research CFX has been on a steady downtrend. Revenue has been in decline over the last two years, free cash flow has gone negative and it has been operating at a net loss since 2019. Debt has been increasing as well and net debt is now…

Close to a bottom, but too early still before an upturn. Swing factor for earnings will be commodity price for potash, and he doesn't see this coming back to sustained supply/demand balance in the medium term. BHP's new production will add ~10% more supply, keeping prices under pressure.

Spike today might be due to US hurricane. Whole sector can be volatile. Nice run since July, when homebuilders picked up substantially. Getting above $19 was significant. Big spike today. Don't want to see it break below $15. Will have trouble between $22-25, so might spend some time there chewing through the supply (as people…

It is in the metal fabrication business. They just raised their dividend this year and have dramatically changed their balance sheet for the better, so it is in much better shape than in past cycles. They also have a U.S. operation and have done a great job managing their working capital. Tariffs could hurt them…

He rarely talks about Gold. He thinks it is a strong sector bet. It is been out of favor for so long that mines have closed, productions have closed, mergers and acquisitions happened. Central Banks are now massive buyers of Gold. they want to get out of the US dollar. The Fed is not raising…

Uses their GPS system to figure out where trains are, and to more accurately schedule trains and service vehicles for people working on the rails. Reported on Aug 14 and earnings were down 10%. That was against a 32% increase in sales. In the coming quarter, earnings are expected to be down 75% year-over-year. Great…

It is a well run company. He got out of it. They paid out a lot of special dividends and the stock did well, but he got out because most of the catalysts are out of it.

(A Top Pick May 29/20, Up 55%) Oxygen delivery. Recurring revenue model. Very strong outlook.

They make life easier for large diagnostic test companies. It automates the testing process. They did a final financing. They've been working on this technology for 5 years.

Making changes to be able to invest more in foreign stocks. Wait to see how they do.

Share price on the path to recovery. Scores well on valuation, but held back by price momentum. Trades cheaply. Solid yield. Beat most recent quarter. Housing markets have been incredibly resilient. Could see himself as a buyer as they rotate into financials.

Rich valuation, but can't deny how well it's done. Consistently profitable on combined ratio (premiums in, minus claims and expenses). Huge market share. He owns CB instead.

Owned it a few years ago and cut his losses. Now, cut your losses. This business is struggling as an asset manager, specifically to retain and attract new clients. Also, their key managers, including the CEO, have been leaving. They won't generate much in performance fees, which has been an attraction for investors in the…

Preferred shares. He does invest in some selective preferred shares for some clients with balanced mandates. Unique because BPY.UN used to be a separate, publicly traded company, so you got full transparency. But then Brookfield privatized it, so you don't get the same transparency. But Brookfield has always been a fairly good corporate citizen and…

Both companies have done quite well and both are cheap with secure dividends. It has been a good year for the sector but they may not get the same returns going forward.

CIX vs. BAM Are very different asset managers. CI's balance sheet is not good. Prefers BAM, but shares have risen to a high valuation. Great managers and earnings stream (asset management fees).

(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Up 15.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with IGM has achieved its target at $44.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $35.50) to $39.00.  

SU vs. CNQ He doesn't generally participate in the E&P space, as it's hard to make decisions based on the underlying commodity price. Bigger picture, still huge demand for Canadian oil and gas on world markets. EVs won't take over anytime soon.SU had been an underperformer and a laggard. Management changes have resulted in turning…

Generally not a fan of the Chinese inter-listed companies. He has a Short position in this one. There are better places to be.

Trucking and logistics primarily to the oil and gas industry. Well run. Tough business. When oil does well, this one does very well. Good dividend. You could own it here, but he'd rather own an oil business instead.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research TVK is a unique serial acquirer of energy assets that possesses a solid track record of growing nicely over the years. In the last five years, TVK managed to grow its topline and EBITDA by approximately 23% and 27%, respectively. Since going public in 2013,…

Thinks it can work at $70 oil. Generates 10% FCF yield at $70 oil. Reached final debt targets, so all free cashflow should return to shareholders mostly in form of buybacks. Over the next 5 years, compounding effect should expand FCF yield from 10% to 20%. If oil goes to $80, you go from 14% FCF…

Has become the go-to Canadian natural gas name, and for good reason. Attachie will add to its growth, and incremental FCF will result. Most FCF is being returned to shareholders. Several decades of inventory. Very conservative management and board. Very strong balance sheet. Long-term exposure to rising natural gas prices. He's also bullish on its production…

Golden crosses and death crosses sound good, but he doesn't use them; they're lagging indicators. Next target close to $100, so 20-25% upside. Has price momentum behind it. Recommending to clients.

They sell energy contracts. They have under gone several management changes over the years. He is not a great fan of this business model.

Not easy in the space to find a company that will benefit long term from green trends. This is probably the best way to play. Owns tremendous assets. He owns the parent BN.

A lot of success is tied to Gaz Metro in Québec, but they also have some wind farms that have recently come online in the last year or 2, and giving good returns to the company. Recent earnings were solid and they raised the dividend by 3.7%, and plan to raise it 4% next year.…

He did his deeper dive. He's going to sell on strength. Not willing to sell here, but he's not adding. Very discouraged by the company's recent moves.