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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
We're in a sketchy environment and uncharted territory in this post-Covid world. You either fight the Fed or don't believe them. The data supports a soft landing more than most believe.
COMMENT
Due to technical difficulties this show was not available on August 29, 2022
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The Importance of Investing Even in the Tough Times. We can see that while both the US and Canadian dollars have averaged a low annual rate of inflation over the past 34 years (2.6% and 2.1%, respectively), these small erosions to purchasing power make a substantial difference over the long term. The same principle is applied to investing – while the TSX only returned a 3.1% annual real return and the S&P 500 a 5.5% annual real return over the past 34 years, this has amounted to a 6X (~$3.0 / $0.5) and 15X (~$6.0 / $0.4) out performance, respectively, above the dollar. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Rates will go significantly higher to control inflation. They will likely go too high and lead to a recession, then start to decline. Actually the economy is probably in a recession now. As to large tech stocks, they have lots of free cash flow but could see earnings numbers come down and multiples may be higher than people think. We have been seeing a massive correction in risk premium.
COMMENT
By now, we're all sick of inflation and maybe we're willing to let Jay Powell administer some strong measures. His speech last Friday was aggressive and brilliant, because it pushed rates up 0.25% on his words alone. Powell wants to instill fear in spending. He's supposed to be stern so that he cools down the economy. He's in a tough spot because employment is still high, but he has to do something. But he must avoid a wage-price spiral that would feed itself. Wages need to stop rising before he stops raising rates. Companies that pay dividends and have sound balance sheets will do well. Companies that do not, that lose money, better sell them.
COMMENT
An historic analogue for the current market, based on research by technical analyst Larry Williams The 2000 DJ was an analog for 2018; both years were ugly with 2000 being the Dotcom Collapse with end-2018 seeing Powell hikes rates to stamp out nascent inflation. 2009 for 2020: markets collapsed in Q1, found a floor in March, then rebounded both years, during the Great Recession and Covid respectively. 2010 for 2021: similar charts though 2013 is a better fit. Push that forward to 2022 which could look like 2014; after running up in June/July, markets took a big hit in August, then rallied again through the end of the year (except a short, sharp pullback in October--be ready for that!--but that was caused by an Ebola scare). Therefore, the outlook for the rest of the year--especially November and December--is positive.
COMMENT
Believes US Federal reserve will make upcoming rate decision based on economic data from the past 6 months. Thinks US Fed will be able to reduce inflation to 2% in the upcoming year. Housing sales and credit lending has decreased. Earnings in Q2 were solid, and was surprised how strong they were. Energy will contribute most of the S&P growth in earnings.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The Effects of Inflation. Inflation, by definition, can be described both by as an erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar, or as an increase in the price of goods and services. By investing in the financial markets, individuals can earn a return over the long-term that is above the rate of inflation, and thereby having a low time preference and increasing their wealth after the effects of inflation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Powell's hawkish comments today The job market remains strong and other economic data has been strong. There was no reason for Powell to be dovish at all. He needs to send a clear message that the Fed will fight inflation. Sounds like the Fed will keep interest rates high for a long time. A soft landing remains possible.
COMMENT
Powell's hawkish comments today Clearly, Powell was forceful in saying the Fed will stifle demand. There's been so much free money in markets, so Powell had to say what he said today--will keep rates up to beat inflation.
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Powell's hawkish comments today The last thing the market needs is to expect a dovish pivot by the Fed. He expects more tough talk from the Fed. So, a definite recession in Europe within 12 months and a 50% chance in the U.S. There have been 9 instances since 1945 when a recession was the cure for inflation.
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He's not surprised with Powell's hawkish comments today that have triggered a market sell-off. No surprise to anyone that he will be data-dependent.
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He's never seen a market down nearly 3% because it expected something. A lot didn't expect such a hawkish statement. There's been free money around the world for a long period like an addiction. There has been some delusional thinking. The market got to 18x--expensive at any time.
COMMENT
Canadian June job vacancies. Usually when we get a recession there are significant job losses, which pushes things down even further. With so many vacancies already, if we get an economic slowdown, there will be more losses but any recession would probably be a very mild one.
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