Is SpaceX Overvalued at $1.75 Trillion?
Yes, SpaceX (SPCX-Q) is overvalued on every independent valuation model published before its June 12, 2026 IPO. SpaceX is priced at $135 per share, near $1.75 trillion. Morningstar values it at $63, and NYU’s Aswath Damodaran near $100. Both sit below the offer price.
Is SpaceX Overvalued at its $1.75 Trillion IPO Price?
SpaceX is overvalued by the math of every independent fair-value estimate, which all land below the $135 offer price. The gap is not small. Morningstar pegs fair value at $63 per share, roughly 53% below the offer (Morningstar, June 2026).
Independent analysts cluster well under $135. The table below shows where each lands.
| Source | Fair value per share | Implied valuation |
| SpaceX IPO offer price | $135 | About $1.75 trillion |
| Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) | About $100 | About $1.3 trillion |
| Doug Kass (Seabreeze Partners) | About $70 | About 50% discount |
| Morningstar (base case) | $63 | About $780 billion |
| Independent S-1 model (Traders Agency) | $42 base, $84 bull | Below offer in all cases |
No published independent model supports the $135 price. The spread implies that $450 billion to $970 billion of the IPO valuation reflects a Musk premium, scarcity, and future optionality (New Market Pitch, June 2026).
What Price-to-Sales Multiple Does $1.75 Trillion Imply?
A $1.75 trillion valuation puts SpaceX near 90 to 95 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, one of the highest price-to-sales ratios in US market history. Short-seller Jim Chanos calculates 90 times sales at the $135 price (Stocktwits, June 2026).
That multiple dwarfs other Musk-linked and mega-cap names. Chanos notes Tesla (TSLA-Q) trades near 14 times sales. SpaceX also carries a $4.9 billion net loss for 2025, so a price-to-earnings ratio does not exist yet.
“Chanos says the $1.75 trillion valuation rests on hopes and dreams.”
Jim Chanos, via Stocktwits (2026)
MarketWatch argues the price leaves virtually zero room for error. A 90-times-sales multiple prices in years of flawless execution before the first public earnings print.
What Does the Bear Case Say?
The bear case holds that SpaceX prices in too much unproven technology, especially in AI, and that Starlink’s market is far smaller than the prospectus claims. Morningstar’s discounted cash flow model values SpaceX at $780 billion, about 48% below its prior $1.5 trillion private mark (CNBC, June 2026).
Morningstar’s specific objections are sharp. The firm calls xAI a material threat of value destruction with an indeterminate economic moat. SpaceX claims a Starlink total addressable market of $1.6 trillion. Morningstar estimates $129 billion is more realistic, citing technical limits and weak competitiveness in dense urban telecom.
Morningstar calls the valuation extremely speculative, driven by untested AI technologies.
Michael Field, Chief Equity Strategist, Morningstar (2026)
Morningstar adds that investors will likely buy SpaceX cheaper after the IPO. That view frames the $135 debut as a poor entry point, not a fair one.
What Does the Bull Case Say?
The bull case values SpaceX as a vertically integrated space infrastructure platform, not a rocket company. Bulls point to reusable launch dominance, Starlink’s 9 million-plus subscribers, Starship, defense contracts, and orbital compute. Oppenheimer frames the opportunity at $10 trillion (Stocktwits, June 2026).
The strongest bull anchor is SpaceX’s launch moat. SpaceX conducts more annual rocket launches than the rest of the world combined. Reusable boosters cut cost per kilogram to orbit far below legacy rivals, which compounds Starlink’s unit economics.
Even a measured bull lands below the offer, though. Aswath Damodaran, the NYU Stern professor known as the Dean of Valuation, values SpaceX near $1.3 trillion, or about $100 per share (Inc., June 2026). Damodaran calls valuing xAI at the implied level a stretch beyond plausible.
Morningstar’s own moonshot scenario reaches $1.97 trillion, or $154 per share. That outcome requires SpaceX to solve unsolved engineering problems, which Morningstar does not expect before 2028.
Why is the IPO Oversubscribed if it is Overvalued?
The IPO is oversubscribed because the day-one price is set by supply and demand, not by fair value. SpaceX floats only about 7% of its shares, and the 30% retail allocation is already several times oversubscribed. Scarcity plus a Musk premium drives the demand.
This is the distinction most coverage misses. Valuation governs long-run returns. Order flow governs the open. A stock can be overvalued on a discounted cash flow basis and still rise on listing day.
A known forced-buying event reinforces the near-term bid. A Nasdaq rule effective May 1, 2026 lets a top-40 listing enter the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days. SpaceX would join around July 6, 2026, triggering an estimated $22 billion to $27 billion in index fund buying (etf.com, June 2026).
Markets front-run known inclusions. So part of that demand may price into SPCX before July 6. The near-term setup is a momentum and supply trade, not a fundamentals trade.
How Does SpaceX Compare to Other Mega-cap stocks?
At 90-plus times sales, SpaceX carries a richer multiple than Nvidia, Tesla, or any current mega-cap on a price-to-sales basis. The comparison exposes how much future growth the $135 price assumes.
| Company | Price-to-sales (approx.) | Profitable today |
| SpaceX (SPCX-Q) | 90x to 95x (2025 sales) | No, $4.9B net loss |
| Nvidia (NVDA-Q) | About 22x | Yes |
| Tesla (TSLA-Q) | About 14x | Yes |
Nvidia grew data-center revenue at triple-digit rates while already profitable. SpaceX must reach similar growth and turn its $4.9 billion loss into sustained profit to grow into a 90-times-sales multiple. The bar is higher than any recent mega-cap IPO has cleared.
For context, SpaceX at $1.75 trillion would rank among the ten most valuable public companies on day one. Companies near that level, such as Meta and Berkshire Hathaway, took decades of public-market operations to get there.
When Does the Valuation Actually Matter for Investors?
Valuation matters most after the IPO hype fades, typically within the first 90 days and at the first earnings print. First-day pops on hyped tech IPOs frequently retrace 20% to 40% within three months (Gotrade, 2026).
History favors patience over the open. IPOs from 2012 to 2021 averaged a 23.6% first-day gain but only a 10.6% three-year return, per University of Florida professor Jay Ritter. The pop is real. The durable return often is not.
The defensible read: SpaceX is a real business with a genuine launch moat, but the $135 price is overvalued on every independent model. Morningstar expects better entry points after listing. SpaceX reports its first public quarter near early November 2026, which gives one full quarter of audited financials. Treat SPCX as a small, high-volatility position sized for a drawdown, not a core holding bought at any price.
FAQ About SpaceX and its Valuation
Some questions you may have about valuation are answered here:
Is SpaceX overvalued at $1.75 trillion?
Yes, on independent valuation models. SpaceX prices at $135 per share, near $1.75 trillion. Morningstar values it at $63, Doug Kass near $70, and Aswath Damodaran near $100. Every published independent estimate sits below the $135 offer. The gap reflects a Musk premium, a 7% float scarcity, and unproven AI and Starship technology priced in upfront.
What is SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio at the IPO?
SpaceX trades near 90 to 95 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion at the $135 offer price. Jim Chanos calculates 90 times sales. That multiple is one of the highest in US market history. For comparison, Tesla trades near 14 times sales and Nvidia near 22 times sales, and both are already profitable.
What does Morningstar value SpaceX at?
Morningstar’s discounted cash flow model values SpaceX at $780 billion, or $63 per share, roughly 53% below the $135 offer. Morningstar calls the IPO significantly overvalued and expects investors to find better entry points after listing. Its optimistic moonshot scenario reaches $1.97 trillion, but only if SpaceX solves engineering problems not expected before 2028.
Why is SpaceX still expected to rise on day one if it is overvalued?
Day-one price reflects supply and demand, not fair value. SpaceX floats only about 7% of shares, and the 30% retail allocation is oversubscribed. A Nasdaq-100 inclusion around July 6, 2026 adds an estimated $22 billion to $27 billion in forced index buying. Scarcity and momentum can lift SPCX short term despite the valuation gap.
Is SpaceX profitable?
No. SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 on $18.7 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year. Most revenue comes from Starlink satellite internet. Heavy spending on Starship, satellite deployment, and AI compute drives the loss. The absence of profit means SPCX cannot be valued on a price-to-earnings basis at the IPO.
When should investors reassess SpaceX’s valuation?
Investors get the first audited public-company financials at the first earnings print, expected near early November 2026. First-day IPO pops on hyped tech names often retrace 20% to 40% within 90 days. Waiting for one full quarter of disclosed results gives a clearer read than buying at a volatile open on June 12.
