Energy has taken a hit recently, but the outlook is looking better in the coming years. There are positive signals that are improving the future of the oil and gas sector, and the energy sector has made gains recently, rising 0.6%. Furthermore, oil prices are climbing once again, and the differential between Canadian and international oil prices are falling. If you can stomach some volatility, this could be a good position to hold longer term to get a healthy return.
⚡ Energy: Oil and Natural Gas
TransCanada Corp (TRP-T)
A major energy company out of Calgary that operates infrastructure in North America.They’ve increased dividends recently. It carries lower risk as a business since 95% of their revenues are regulated or from long-term contracts. The stock could go up greatly with the approval of the Keystone project, if it were to happen.
TC Energy vs. Enbridge. He'd own TC Energy. They'll both move the same amount. He's shy of Enbridge because their growth strategy was based on something that didn't exist, always issuing equity and hiking dividends. Doesn't like Enbridge.
Husky Energy (HSE-T)
One of Canada’s largest integrated energy companies. It moves with oil prices. The stock has been experiencing higher highs and lows. Recently they stepped away from taking over MEG-T which surprised many investors. They have beat their earnings, and have an excellent balance sheet. For an energy stock, this is very defensive.
HSE will move with the oil price. You can buy it here and trade it when oil spikes. HSE walked away from the Meg Energy deal, which surprised many. Maybe it will happen later.
Imperial Oil (IMO-T)
Canada’s second-biggest integrated oil company. They are financially strong, and it could be a good time to get in, as their valuation has been reaching historic lows. Fundamentally, the company is very good, but concerns over the sector have beaten it down, making for an attractive buying opportunity.
Exxon owns 69% of this. There have been some recent project cost overruns. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this company. Pipeline issues may be influencing investor sentiment on how their production is going to get to market. At these levels he is looking at it harder.
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T)
A company that specializes in production of synthetic crude from oil sands. They have a lot of growth potentially and are a low cost operator. They’ve been generating a lot of free cash flow. A premiere holding in Canadian energy.
(A Top Pick Oct 24/18, Down 4%) He'd still buy it today. Not as much torque as in other oil names, but SU is widely held and pays a safe 4% yield. It's the top energy company in Canada, both upstream and downstream. Their refining profits will improve going forward.
Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
An integrated oil company. They’re moving more oil by rail and the price is good. They have good exposure to WCS differentials, and the new CEO is repositioning the company. A good choice for those looking to get exposure in a large cap Canadian stock.
(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Up 15%) Pretty solid quarter the other day. Benefited from curtailment in Alberta. WCS differential affected them. If the differential holds, the profitability explodes. Out of the name now, and into CNQ which has a healthier balance sheet. Could move into the high teens from here.
Gibson Energy (GEI-T)
A supplier to the oil and gas industry. They are more of a pipeline company, with a refocusing on infrastructure. If oil continues to rise, this company will go up with it.
This is not performing as poorly as the crude oil complex, because it does not have exposure to production. The short term chart is neutral. It probably attracts a lot of dividend seekers. The longer-term chart shows an overhead supply from 2013 to 2015, but is now struggling. There should be resistance at $16-$17 and…
Encana Corp (ECA-T)
A producer, transporter and marketer for natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. They represent the entire Canadian energy patch. They bought a U.S. company last year and a combination of successfully integrating this company, and a rise in oil prices will push this stock up. They are experiencing strong volume now.
Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU-T)
An independent natural gas producer. They are considering adding to their dividends or to buy back stocks, as they look forward to having more cash flow. Their balance sheet is good, and they have good managers. They are moving more liquid natural gas and building facilities.
Too big to be taken over, except by a major, and it's quite independent, so that's a very low chance. Pure gas play, well run, profitable, has growth. Chart is pretty good for an energy stock. But valuations are still extremely low. It's in upper 5% of names, but whole group is out of favour.…
Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T)
An oil and gas exploration, development and production company. They have great cash flow and they are expected to increase dividends next week. They are a flexible company that is well managed. They’v been focusing their operations on upgrading and refining oil in the last few years.
It is always a buy close to book value. In the low $30s it makes sense. They are buying back their stock aggressively. This will be an astute investment if we get back to $70-$100 oil. The stock has upside. They are generating a lot of free cash flow.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK-N)
An American petroleum and natural gas exploration and production company. They’re shares rose by 10% yesterday as the company beat profits as they move towards oil and away from gas. They recently acquired another company and are expected to produce more crude oil in 2019.
If you own, you could try to sell some Calls. He would personally sell “out of the money” as he is bullish on oil stocks. He would like to own them long-term. Instead of buying the stock, you could have bought a long-term “in the money” Call to replace the stock. This would be more…
Continental Resources (CLR-N)
A U.S. shale producer. They expect oilfield service costs to remain low due to weaker oil prices, but if you are bull-is on oil, this could be a good contrarian play. Their shale field output hit a record during third quarter 2018, and are expected to continue rise as they complete more wells.
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG-N)
An independent oil and gas company engaged in development, exploitation and exploration. Their natural gas pipeline in the states has been given another chance with approval from the courts. They’ announced a quarterly profit helped by natural gas prices and increased production.
Sitting on 25 years of drilling inventory in the Marsalis shale play. This is a play that in the past 4 years has grown from a very low production base to a current production of 13,000,000,000 ft.³ a day, which is equivalent to all of Canada. This is a reason longer-term that he is a…
Chevron Texaco (CVX-N)
They manage subsidiaries that engage in integrated energy and chemicals operations. They’ve been matching estimates in the recent quarters and are in the middle of receiving bids for assets in the British North Sea.
He is a big believer in this. Thinks the dividend is sustainable. They have earned 10%, 12%, 8% consistently over time in that range. He thinks a lower return is priced into the stock right now. The lower return they are earning at the moment should rebound in the long run. Feels the dividend is…
EOG Resources Inc (EOG-N)
A petroleum and natural gas exploration company. They are expecting to see a fourth quarter profit boost from oil and gas hedging. They are a shale oil producer that has weathered well the oil price drop. They topped profit estimates last year.
Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI-N)
The largest energy infrastructure company in North America. Strong performance in its pipeline and terminal business helped their profits surge last quarter. They’re also working on building ports in Texas, as US oil export booms.
He likes the longer-term growth prospects. Feels that you can really bank on mid-single digit cash flow growth and dividend growth. It has energy infrastructure assets throughout the US and is a relatively large player. It came under pressure when commodity prices sold off so there are some sentimental related risks, unless there is a…
Noble Energy Inc. (NBL-N)
An independent energy company in crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. They’ve lowered their capital expense in response to a drop in crude oil prices and are aiming to return over $500 million to shareholders by 2020.
A good Short? This is in the service side of the business. Global consumption of crude and natural gas is going to continue to expand regardless of whether we have a mild recession or not. Don't get overly bearish.
Southwestern Energy (SWN-N)
An energy company in natural gas and oil exploration, development and production. They sold their Fayetteville shale asset last year in a deal valued at about $1.87B.
Very bullish outlook on gas and this will give you great exposure to gas. Well run and a tremendous track record in production growth and reserve growth. Both shale gas and conventional gas exposure. Potential take-out candidate.
Exxon Mobil (XOM-N)
An American multinational oil and gas corporation. They recently found another giant gas reservoir in Cyprus. Their reserves are up 23% from US shale. They’vealso outperformed estimates for Q4.
(A Top Pick June 9/17. Down 5.01%.) He would stick with this. It ties in with his theme that energy has been under a lot of pressure because of concerns about excessive supply, but that is actually shutting down further exploration production. It is just a matter of time before energy gets its footing, and…