Energy has taken a hit recently, but the outlook is looking better in the coming years. There are positive signals that are improving the future of the oil and gas sector, and the energy sector has made gains recently, rising 0.6%. Furthermore, oil prices are climbing once again, and the differential between Canadian and international oil prices are falling. If you can stomach some volatility, this could be a good position to hold longer term to get a healthy return.
⚡ Energy: Oil and Natural Gas
TransCanada Corp (TRP-T)
A major energy company out of Calgary that operates infrastructure in North America.They’ve increased dividends recently. It carries lower risk as a business since 95% of their revenues are regulated or from long-term contracts. The stock could go up greatly with the approval of the Keystone project, if it were to happen.
TRP-T vs. KEY-T. One of the most important data points is beta. He would choose TRP, because it's less correlated to the market. Has more protection on downside risk. Plus, it has higher overall performance. A couple of weeks ago, it was bottoming and relative strength was holding in really well. (Analysts’ price target is…
Husky Energy (HSE-T)
One of Canada’s largest integrated energy companies. It moves with oil prices. The stock has been experiencing higher highs and lows. Recently they stepped away from taking over MEG-T which surprised many investors. They have beat their earnings, and have an excellent balance sheet. For an energy stock, this is very defensive.
They benefit from the wide WCS differential. They just beat their earnings 7%. Excellent balance sheet. 0.3x net debt-to-EBITDA. 79% payout ratio supports their dividend, and trade cheaper than peers. Only caveat is he doesn't so as much growth in 2019. If you need to own oil, this is very defensive.
Imperial Oil (IMO-T)
Canada’s second-biggest integrated oil company. They are financially strong, and it could be a good time to get in, as their valuation has been reaching historic lows. Fundamentally, the company is very good, but concerns over the sector have beaten it down, making for an attractive buying opportunity.
Not too warm on Imperial. Until the political environment in Canada (that is basically anti-energy) changes he wouldn’t invest in Canadian Energy. He would rather invest in energy companies outside of Canada.
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T)
A company that specializes in production of synthetic crude from oil sands. They have a lot of growth potentially and are a low cost operator. They’ve been generating a lot of free cash flow. A premiere holding in Canadian energy.
Will rail benefit? He thinks rail and the new Alberta government will benefit them. Pipelines are safer, but oil needs to move. SU-T is their primarily holding in the energy space. A fully integrated company that benefits from production and refining. Yield 3.5%.
Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
An integrated oil company. They’re moving more oil by rail and the price is good. They have good exposure to WCS differentials, and the new CEO is repositioning the company. A good choice for those looking to get exposure in a large cap Canadian stock.
It has been a tough energy call. He thought it was cheap enough after their acquisition and the stock got hammered, but the rally petered out. He got out. Cash flow is not really there. It is lining up as a short if he sees more weakness.
Gibson Energy (GEI-T)
A supplier to the oil and gas industry. They are more of a pipeline company, with a refocusing on infrastructure. If oil continues to rise, this company will go up with it.
Stumbled a little with the release of Q1. There was probably a bit of miscommunication between the analyst community and management. There are 2 segments to their business, transportation and wholesale. He still likes the company and thinks they are well positioned in terms of pipelining, storage, tankage etc. Current yield is about 8.6%, which…
Encana Corp (ECA-T)
A producer, transporter and marketer for natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. They represent the entire Canadian energy patch. They bought a U.S. company last year and a combination of successfully integrating this company, and a rise in oil prices will push this stock up. They are experiencing strong volume now.
He just bought this. This has fallen, based and is moving up now with higher highs. He's very bullish in commodities now, because it was beaten up and has alredy based. (Analysts’ price target is $9.85)
Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU-T)
An independent natural gas producer. They are considering adding to their dividends or to buy back stocks, as they look forward to having more cash flow. Their balance sheet is good, and they have good managers. They are moving more liquid natural gas and building facilities.
The second largest natural gas producer in Canada. Half of its value is in the infrastructure it owns. It has been a laggard in the market, but its stock is highly correlated to natural gas prices, which is not representative of the fact only 24% of their production is sold into the depressed AECO market.…
Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T)
An oil and gas exploration, development and production company. They have great cash flow and they are expected to increase dividends next week. They are a flexible company that is well managed. They’v been focusing their operations on upgrading and refining oil in the last few years.
There were some short term indicators for selling that came on, so he is looking for a pause here. There is no resistance until $44.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK-N)
An American petroleum and natural gas exploration and production company. They’re shares rose by 10% yesterday as the company beat profits as they move towards oil and away from gas. They recently acquired another company and are expected to produce more crude oil in 2019.
If you own, you could try to sell some Calls. He would personally sell “out of the money” as he is bullish on oil stocks. He would like to own them long-term. Instead of buying the stock, you could have bought a long-term “in the money” Call to replace the stock. This would be more…
Continental Resources (CLR-N)
A U.S. shale producer. They expect oilfield service costs to remain low due to weaker oil prices, but if you are bull-is on oil, this could be a good contrarian play. Their shale field output hit a record during third quarter 2018, and are expected to continue rise as they complete more wells.
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG-N)
An independent oil and gas company engaged in development, exploitation and exploration. Their natural gas pipeline in the states has been given another chance with approval from the courts. They’ announced a quarterly profit helped by natural gas prices and increased production.
Sitting on 25 years of drilling inventory in the Marsalis shale play. This is a play that in the past 4 years has grown from a very low production base to a current production of 13,000,000,000 ft.³ a day, which is equivalent to all of Canada. This is a reason longer-term that he is a…
Chevron Texaco (CVX-N)
They manage subsidiaries that engage in integrated energy and chemicals operations. They’ve been matching estimates in the recent quarters and are in the middle of receiving bids for assets in the British North Sea.
A large integrated company based out of the US. An excellent long-term core holding. She tends to stay with Canadian ones for energy exposure. This company can take advantage of the low point in the cycle to buy assets at attractive prices. As a refiner, they benefit when commodity prices go down. Pretty good dividend…
EOG Resources Inc (EOG-N)
A petroleum and natural gas exploration company. They are expecting to see a fourth quarter profit boost from oil and gas hedging. They are a shale oil producer that has weathered well the oil price drop. They topped profit estimates last year.
Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI-N)
The largest energy infrastructure company in North America. Strong performance in its pipeline and terminal business helped their profits surge last quarter. They’re also working on building ports in Texas, as US oil export booms.
Largest pipeline operator in the US. He likes it in general. He is worried that they are only interested in growing the size of the company. He prefers others.
Noble Energy Inc. (NBL-N)
An independent energy company in crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. They’ve lowered their capital expense in response to a drop in crude oil prices and are aiming to return over $500 million to shareholders by 2020.
A good Short? This is in the service side of the business. Global consumption of crude and natural gas is going to continue to expand regardless of whether we have a mild recession or not. Don't get overly bearish.
Southwestern Energy (SWN-N)
An energy company in natural gas and oil exploration, development and production. They sold their Fayetteville shale asset last year in a deal valued at about $1.87B.
Very bullish outlook on gas and this will give you great exposure to gas. Well run and a tremendous track record in production growth and reserve growth. Both shale gas and conventional gas exposure. Potential take-out candidate.
Exxon Mobil (XOM-N)
An American multinational oil and gas corporation. They recently found another giant gas reservoir in Cyprus. Their reserves are up 23% from US shale. They’vealso outperformed estimates for Q4.
(A Top Pick May 19/16. Down 7.16%.) Sold this earlier this year. Expects we will be range bound in WTI for the rest of the year. This one is okay, but at this stage, it may not have the leverage if oil prices move up.