Energy has taken a hit recently, but the outlook is looking better in the coming years. There are positive signals that are improving the future of the oil and gas sector, and the energy sector has made gains recently, rising 0.6%. Furthermore, oil prices are climbing once again, and the differential between Canadian and international oil prices are falling. If you can stomach some volatility, this could be a good position to hold longer term to get a healthy return.
⚡ Energy: Oil and Natural Gas
TransCanada Corp (TRP-T)
A major energy company out of Calgary that operates infrastructure in North America.They’ve increased dividends recently. It carries lower risk as a business since 95% of their revenues are regulated or from long-term contracts. The stock could go up greatly with the approval of the Keystone project, if it were to happen.
Keystone XL seems like an never ending project and he thinks it is a coin toss. Presidential candidate Biden is on record saying he will kill it. The TRP shares price are not reflecting any value from the pipeline project, he thinks. He is under weight energy at this point, however, he considers this an…
Husky Energy (HSE-T)
One of Canada’s largest integrated energy companies. It moves with oil prices. The stock has been experiencing higher highs and lows. Recently they stepped away from taking over MEG-T which surprised many investors. They have beat their earnings, and have an excellent balance sheet. For an energy stock, this is very defensive.
ATH vs HSE vs MEG? The clear stand out is MEG, who is 55% hedged at $59 oil prices. ATH has a high cost project with Hangingstone and is burning cash, although they have enough liquidity for the next 9 months. He would never own HSE, because of their ESG issues. All bets are off…
Imperial Oil (IMO-T)
Canada’s second-biggest integrated oil company. They are financially strong, and it could be a good time to get in, as their valuation has been reaching historic lows. Fundamentally, the company is very good, but concerns over the sector have beaten it down, making for an attractive buying opportunity.
If you want to wade back into the oil patch this is probably the one with the strongest balance sheet. The advantage is the long life of the oil sands as they don’t need to explore for new oil. Most of the barrels in their reserves will be sold at higher prices. They also have…
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T)
A company that specializes in production of synthetic crude from oil sands. They have a lot of growth potentially and are a low cost operator. They’ve been generating a lot of free cash flow. A premiere holding in Canadian energy.
Which company in the oils sands would he like to buy? All energy companies are going to have a poor year, this year. As the recovery takes hold, demand for energy should increase. SU-T would be one of the better places to be. It is well financed and has a good balance sheet. It is…
Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)
An integrated oil company. They’re moving more oil by rail and the price is good. They have good exposure to WCS differentials, and the new CEO is repositioning the company. A good choice for those looking to get exposure in a large cap Canadian stock.
Their balance isn't bad nor is their debt. Oil production is up, but they are vulnerable to lower oil prices. A WTI/WCS price pullback--which he expects--will push this stock back below $4. So, don't buy now. Long-term, this is better, or add on pullbacks. If you bought in March, you could so some trading.
Gibson Energy (GEI-T)
A supplier to the oil and gas industry. They are more of a pipeline company, with a refocusing on infrastructure. If oil continues to rise, this company will go up with it.
(A Top Pick May 10/19, Down 14%) Shippers were up yesterday, Black Monday, because everyone needs to store their oil like Gibson's. But all these companies suffer counter-party risk with their end customers. GEI has done relatively well against peers. Price momentum and valuation are not bad. Offers a 23% ROE. Trades in line with…
Encana Corp (ECA-T)
A producer, transporter and marketer for natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. They represent the entire Canadian energy patch. They bought a U.S. company last year and a combination of successfully integrating this company, and a rise in oil prices will push this stock up. They are experiencing strong volume now.
Weakness in share price recently is related to their moving HQ into the US. Their strategy for the move is to trigger share buying in the US as they become part of a larger market index, he thinks. There is no guarantee this will happen in the US, so this is a pretty risky strategy.…
Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU-T)
An independent natural gas producer. They are considering adding to their dividends or to buy back stocks, as they look forward to having more cash flow. Their balance sheet is good, and they have good managers. They are moving more liquid natural gas and building facilities.
(A Top Pick Jun 20/19, Down 26%) It's generating free cash flow and paying down debt. Buy this under $10 for the long term. This is the premier large gas company in Canada with a strong management team who will maximize shareholder value. Managers also own a lot of shares.
Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T)
An oil and gas exploration, development and production company. They have great cash flow and they are expected to increase dividends next week. They are a flexible company that is well managed. They’v been focusing their operations on upgrading and refining oil in the last few years.
We are past the 'best-before' date and core investments in energy are going to be less and less for institutions and individual investors. You want to wait and see what a second COVID wave will look like as we get into the flu season. The futures curve points back to $50 in 2027. There will…
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK-N)
An American petroleum and natural gas exploration and production company. They’re shares rose by 10% yesterday as the company beat profits as they move towards oil and away from gas. They recently acquired another company and are expected to produce more crude oil in 2019.
Probably a name he would hold or avoid, simply because it is so highly levered. A good company. It has some good assets. If you see a sustained bull market in energy, this could be fairly attractive. However he doesn’t think we are going to have a bull market in energy right now, so this…
Continental Resources (CLR-N)
A U.S. shale producer. They expect oilfield service costs to remain low due to weaker oil prices, but if you are bull-is on oil, this could be a good contrarian play. Their shale field output hit a record during third quarter 2018, and are expected to continue rise as they complete more wells.
This was the poster child for the US growth machine. But now they are in one of the worst places. Cut cap X program and will likely have to cut it again. Prefers Canadian oil stocks. Thinks there will still be revisions to CLR-N’s cash flow.
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG-N)
An independent oil and gas company engaged in development, exploitation and exploration. Their natural gas pipeline in the states has been given another chance with approval from the courts. They’ announced a quarterly profit helped by natural gas prices and increased production.
(Top Pick March 10/14, Down 14.12%) They are a lower cost operator. He sold this a couple of months after recommending it. Their challenge has been that their industry has been wildly successful in getting production growth and now there is a severe shortage of pipelines in the region so the price they sell for…
Chevron Texaco (CVX-N)
They manage subsidiaries that engage in integrated energy and chemicals operations. They’ve been matching estimates in the recent quarters and are in the middle of receiving bids for assets in the British North Sea.
Oil Companies. The war between Saudi Arabia and Russia may be a concerted effort to put marginal producers out of business. It is an unpredictable battle.
EOG Resources Inc (EOG-N)
A petroleum and natural gas exploration company. They are expecting to see a fourth quarter profit boost from oil and gas hedging. They are a shale oil producer that has weathered well the oil price drop. They topped profit estimates last year.
Energy is facing its toughest times. If you are bottom feeding, he might still avoid this sector. The companies that will get through the best will be the ones with their costs under control. CPG is a lower cost producer, but he would prefer someone like EOG -- the lowest cost shale producer. He thinks…
Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI-N)
The largest energy infrastructure company in North America. Strong performance in its pipeline and terminal business helped their profits surge last quarter. They’re also working on building ports in Texas, as US oil export booms.
Noble Energy Inc. (NBL-N)
An independent energy company in crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. They’ve lowered their capital expense in response to a drop in crude oil prices and are aiming to return over $500 million to shareholders by 2020.
This all depends on what oil prices are going to do. $50 oil kind of keeps them going, but the costs are much higher than they are getting at the end of the day.
Southwestern Energy (SWN-N)
An energy company in natural gas and oil exploration, development and production. They sold their Fayetteville shale asset last year in a deal valued at about $1.87B.
Very bullish outlook on gas and this will give you great exposure to gas. Well run and a tremendous track record in production growth and reserve growth. Both shale gas and conventional gas exposure. Potential take-out candidate.
Exxon Mobil (XOM-N)
An American multinational oil and gas corporation. They recently found another giant gas reservoir in Cyprus. Their reserves are up 23% from US shale. They’vealso outperformed estimates for Q4.
A play on global oil. The coronavirus has taken out 20% demand because of China, but there will be a bounce-back in oil. Global oil has been a tough slog for the last 5 years. You can probably buy it and collect a nice dividend, but BP has a better payout. Don't expect much capital…