Stockchase Panic-Proof Portfolio – July 2026 Update

The performance data and percentage returns cited in this article are accurate as of July 28 and may not reflect subsequent market movements.

As we approach the sixth anniversary of the Panic-Proof Portfolio which began offering Top Picks to its members in August 2020, we asked Stockchase Research Editor, Michael O’Reilly, for an update on the performance of the portfolio over the past 12 months, how the methodology protects against downside price risk, what has been the most successful pick to date, and what are some new developments for the portfolio.    

The Panic-Proof Portfolio has performed very well against the major market indices, right in line with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.  The TSX is up over 29%.  “Considering about 15% of the Panic-Proof Portfolio’s Top Picks have been in money market and cash equivalent ETFs, these are solid returns”, he says.     

“The portfolio performed particularly well in July-August of 2025 as our diversified portfolio had picks that benefited substantially from the precious metals and energy rally.”   

Up to when this was written in late-July, the Panic-Proof Portfolio of Top Picks has provided a 12 month return of 21.3% and has had only three monthly draw downs — the largest being 4.1% in March.  In the same month the NASDAQ, S&P500, and TSX each declined by at least 8.5%.  

Remember when we last updated our members about performance in 2022?  The Panic-Proof Portfolio had demonstrated a marginal 0.8% loss over the year, while the key indices had declined by 8% (TSX), 19% (S&P 500), and 33% (NASDAQ).

“These results show the Panic-Proof Portfolio strategy provides downside protection, yet still benefits from virtually all the market upside”, he suggests. 

How does the portfolio manage down side risk?

O’Reilly sets a “stop-loss” on every Top Pick along with a profit objective and sets an alert for each .  This is in addition to a selection process that focuses on solid fundamentals of cash flow, return on equity, and relative valuation (including Price-Earnings and Price-to-Book).   

The profit objective generally targets a one-year 18% return or higher.  When the stock achieves this objective, O’Reilly recommends taking profit on half of the position.  The stop-loss level is then re-assessed (but never lowered).  The balance of the position is held with no further upside profit trigger  – “thus allowing the winners to run – unless we reiterate it again as a Top Pick, in which case we set another profit target”, he says.   

The stop-loss is a price point at which the entire position should be exited if the stock prices falls below.  It is set using a “Parabolic Stop-And-Reverse” indicator, a method that takes into account the underlying trend of the stock price, and current volatility of the weekly stock price.  The stop of each Top Pick is reviewed regularly and increased (or trailed higher) over time – it is never lowered from its original entry.  

“This ensures capital is preserved in the event of an unforeseen negative change in the overall market direction or within the fundamentals of the company”, says O’Reilly.  “By regularly reviewing the stop level and trailing it higher over time, it also protects capital from being trapped in a stock that is not continuing to advance”, he adds.  Members are updated whenever the stop-loss is reassessed, when the profit target is achieved, or when the stop is triggered.     

He has relied on this same methodology in his many years of personal investing and during his career as a professional commodity analyst and trader.      

What has been the most successful Top Pick thus far? 

“Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM.TO) provided 12 unique Top Pick entry points from when we first identified it to our members in February 2022.  Although we were stopped out for a net 9% loss in May of that year on our first entry, we re-entered again on strong fundamentals at $72.15.  

We reiterated our TOP PICK selection several additional time and reached our profit target five times (the highest target achieved being $334) until we were finally stopped out at $270.00 in March of this year.”  

It has since traded below $190, so the portfolio participated in a healthy portion of rally.  

O’Reilly thinks gold is always a good hedge, and hints he will likely re-establish another Top Pick of AEM (or gold in general) in the near future as long as the fundamentals look good.    

What new developments can we look forward to for the Portfolio?

“I enjoy sharing new ways to think about investing with our members,” he begins.

“For instance, we introduced unique ways to achieve better tax efficiency through the use of Corporate Class ETFs in their Canadian non-registered accounts.  We added low-volatility ETFs that focused on specific geographic regions to reduce portfolio volatility.  We have recently begun to add sector specific ETFs to follow the massive inflows into certain high performing market spaces.  We will continue to add company specific Top Picks that meet our rigorous metrics to help our members during these turbulent market times.  But always using the stop-loss methodology. ”

Any thoughts about the market going forward?

O’Reilly thinks there are growing concerns among analysts about the strength of the global economy, especially in the face of rapidly rising U.S. long term interest rates along with the threat of prolonged inflation.  

He believes unemployment rates, should they rise much higher, could trigger another global recession and with company valuations priced today for near perfect conditions, the market could face price declines not seen for decades — ones that he believes could take 10 years or more to recover from. 

“This has me keenly aware of the need to consistently re-assess the stop-loss levels we have set for our Top Picks.  I am proud to provide our members with timely signals that may help them preserve their hard earned capital just when they need it most and still be aggressive when markets are supportive,” he concluded.

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