Robert Gill

Yes. He heard a speaker last week, who defined risk as what remains after you've accounted for all the risk you can think of. 

There's quite a bit of risk in the world right now with respect to geopolitical disruption. Conflict in Middle East is escalating instead of abating. The invasion of Ukraine is in its third year now and going strong. US election year, and a lot is riding on those results. 

Canada, relative to the rest of the world right now, is economically and politically stable. Inflation's coming down, so the bite of higher rates is beginning to take effect. At around 16x earnings, valuation multiples of the TSX continue to be very attractive relative to many markets around the world. Whereas the S&P 500 trades at about 22-23x earnings. TSX has a great yield of about 3.1%, compared to the S&P 500 at less than half of that.

He's finding a lot of opportunities in the interest-sensitive stocks, which includes telcos, banks, and utilities. These groups tend to have higher dividend yields so, in a higher rate environment, investors shift funds from these higher-yielding equities to fixed income for the better-perceived risk. This shift has made the higher-dividend payers attractive.

Energy sector continues to be very defensive. High dividend yields by returning cash to shareholders through share buybacks. Energy share prices are supported by the higher price of the commodity, oil.

See his Top Picks.

Lots of moving parts in the global economy. Want to invest in high-quality companies with strong balance sheets. Have a diversified portfolio. For more on portfolio diversification, go to his article for the National Post at goodreid.com.

Globally diversified, with 50% of revenue from US. Profitability is 20% ROE, considerably higher than market average of 12% in Canada, and US average of 14%. More leverage than he's comfortable with. Share price has moved sideways for a couple of years. Virtually no yield, so you need capital appreciation to create alpha. 20x PE, quite expensive for a real estate company. He'd be interested around $120.

Trades at 7x earnings. Very profitable. Yield is 10%.

Volatile profitability, typical for a cyclical commodity company. Profitability stronger in recent years. Well managed balance sheet over the last decade, with minimal debt. Inexpensive valuation, as earnings have moved higher on the back of elevated commodity prices. Upgrades continue to push share price higher. He'd be interested around $20.

Transports oil and gas. Very strong financials, good management making very good investment decisions. Should continue to do well and increase dividend over upcoming quarters. Should continue to benefit from higher oil prices. Buy here, good long-term hold. 16x PE. Yield is 5.7%.

Prefers it to ENB, which has considerably more debt. TRP is more attractively priced, as it's had to move through some issues. 

Diverse customer base. US market represents about 70% of revenue. Profitability above stock market average, and has been for 5-6 years. Balance sheet has more leverage than what he's comfortable with. 20x PE, considerably more expensive than TSX at 16x. Wait for a considerable drop to $170-175. Yield is only 1%.

Largest natural gas producer in Canada. Shares volatile, fluctuating with the shares of nat gas. Now on a rebound. Key to the story is management, has done a good job and owns lots of shares. Balance sheet flush with cash, picked up assets at discount. Profitable at $1.50 gas, and gas is above that. Known for its special dividends. Yield's around 3.5%, often gets close to 10% with the special dividends. Hold now, buy more on weakness.

Business split between IT services and consulting (55% revenue) and systems integration (45%). Public and private. International revenue -- 30% US, 15% Canada, rest from Europe. Recurring revenues from long-term contracts. Investing to expand AI offerings. 

Well run, good track record of operating and acquiring. Impressive allocation of capital. Profitability well above market, strong balance sheet. Small premium to the market, but better quality than market. No dividend, but the growth rate is there. Long-term hold.

Canadian champion. Significant market share around the world. Quality. Would own again at the right price. Impressive profitability, strong balance sheet, good yield of 3%. Valuation is really starting to look attractive. Buy now, enjoy yield, hold it for the long term, get price appreciation as well.

Nice 6.5% dividend yield. Traded down due to softness in Central and South American markets, presenting a buying opportunity. Reversion-to-the-mean investment story. Already up 15% from October 2023, not including dividend. If got back to $95, would be a 46% return plus divvie. Buy now for quality, attractive multiple, high yield, and a margin of safety.

Unfortunate timing that it fell $10 after earnings yesterday. Look at rails to see how economy's doing, as they're a leading indicator. Yesterday's earnings were fairly solid, management reaffirmed 2024 outlook of continuing to see expected improvements in economy. EPS growth expected at 10%, ROC 10-15%.

Strong fundamentals, high profitability, good balance sheet. Slightly higher multiple than market, but it's of higher quality than the market. Buy here on the pullback.

Investors are most concerned with the two issues of succession planning and US regulatory scrutiny. You have to believe that TD is vetting suitable candidates for when the time comes. Money-laundering fine expected to be north of half a billion $$.

Strengthened risk management. Outsourced regulatory support. Overhang is creating buying opportunity at a cheaper multiple than peers. Remains a good, high-quality bank, second-largest in Canada. Trades at 10x, 5% yield.

Most efficient way to move goods. Most environmentally friendly way. Economic moat, as you can't outsource the service they provide to areas of the world where labour tends to be cheaper.

All these fundamentals should exist for the next 10, 20, even 50 years.