Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Weak job numbers last week are not indicative of overall strength of economy. US economy firing on all cylinders which will cause further inflation. US Fed in very tough position - high debt loads make it hard to raise interest rates. US Fed can't cut rates either, as will increase inflation. Higher jobs numbers and inflation will continue to fuel inflation. Expecting hard economic landing - just not sure when. Inverted yield curve is setting records on length. Recent earnings with tech, not very strong. Strength in economy is very narrow (tech). Warren Buffett trimming Apple indicative of strength. 

Great dividend in US dollars. Conservative equity exposure with great defensive position. Would recommend buying, especially for Canadian snowbirds in USA. 

Consists of banks, utilities, some energy names creates a safe dividend option. If interest rates fall, will be good for stock. XDI probably a better name (has quality names in fund). 

Alternative income becoming more important for investor portfolios. Alternative investment conferences planned for Toronto in coming weeks will be indicative of sentiment in private equity and private credit. Public debt is not creating enough yield to keep up with inflation. Investors must find better options in the private markets. Top sovereign wealth funds (CPPIB) have directed investment to private markets. 90% of investment universe is located in private markets. VPC is a good option to get exposure to private markets in the USA. VPC comes with volatility in public markets - so would still recommend traditional private investments. 

US corporate earnings strong last week - tech contributing majority of growth. 5% grow with tech sector (~1% without tech). Markets have been stable with higher than expected earnings. Recent US Treasury announcement a concern, with rising debt levels. US bonds selling off slightly which creates uncertainty. Old US Fed bonds maturing will require new issuance of debt - very eye popping. More bond raises will draw capital of out other sectors of economy (harder for companies to raise capital from investors).  

Good option for US bond investors. Would be a great buy if economy tanks. 

Covered call gives extra income, but reduces capital gains. If bullish - would recommend an equity ETF without dividends. This option is good for dividend investors looking for income. Overall, a good product - just a question of investor preference. 

Alexander Hamilton (first US Treasury Secretary) suggested prudent use of leverage was good for society. However, politicians have abused debt in order to buy votes. Rising debt levels in the USA a major concern. Every recession in the past 50 years has followed with record debt levels. Current deficit comprised of 6% of GDP is set to rise. Fiscal outlook for US Fed is in terrible shape. Approximately $1 Trillion of debt expected to be raised by the US. US Fed competing with private companies for capital - investors will give their capital to government - which reduces amount leftover for entrepreneurs etc. Higher inflation will also require increased interest rates, which will increase the costs of servicing debt (money that could be invested elsewhere). Overall, is bad state to be in with colossal debt levels. 

Peak of earnings season this week - earnings  are tracking higher than consensus (concentrated in large tech names). Geopolitical risk, and interest rates main concern for falling markets last week. Rising cost of money (potentially) is concerning for investors. Without "Mag 7" names - not much earnings growth in markets. Energy companies performing well, but broader markets not as strong. 

Structure of ETF (leverage involved) major driver of performance. Can very volatile. Would recommend investors study product extensively. Is not a growth strategy - good for yield (~6.8%). Risky product due to use of leverage. 

Good way to get exposure to TSX broader market. Will track TSX index with low management fees. Good for long term investors. 

Rising interest rates putting pressure on stock. Company uses substantial debt. Analyst estimates very broad. Would recommend waiting to buy when share price falls. Share price not low enough. Good company, with stable earnings - just not priced correctly. 

Good yield with covered call strategy. Currency exposure a concern, but likes Canadian banking sector. Expecting strong earnings going forward. Housing pressure with renewing mortgages a concern, but overall a good product for long term investors. 

Bullish trend good for momentum investors. Valuation is not too high (relative to tech), and has quality earnings. Fundamentally expects company to continue to perform. As long as trend continues, will be a good investment. 

Believes market entering into correction territory. Investors should look to old market "highs" to see previous support levels. 4800 price seems to be the previous level which the market was at. Trend lines also important for investors to study in order to determine where S&P 500 may find support. If US Fed decides not to cut interest rates, markets could fall below 4800. Would recommend buying around the 4500-4800 S&P 500 price level. If US Treasury decides to fund debt payments with debt instruments, bank stocks will sell off. A lot of market directions will depend on US Fed actions. Catastrophic fiscal position (large amounts of debt) a major concern.