Toronto Dominion (TD-T)

The chart shows a downtrend since early 2023 and is testing the bottom at $75. Meanwhile, its peers like Royal are breaking to the upside. He expects a wider market correction to come, too, so you don't want to hold a laggard like this. You could nibble at TD, but he sees more downside.

It's painful getting into trouble with US regulators (fines and restrictions). How long will it take the market to digest the extra oversight? Typically, at least a year; TD could be dead money for a couple of years. He has sold TD shares. You need a long time frame. He wouldn't buy TD now.

Will be in the penalty box for a long time. For comparison, look at the progress of WFC since 2018.

Lowest multiple of the peer group. Lots of negative sentiment has put it under pressure, which might give a bit more upside over the longer term, while still providing you with income.

This is his pick for income-seeking investors. Not a ton of robust growth in Canada, US growth has been curtailed. You don't buy this for growth. You're going to collect your dividend, over 3-5 years you're waiting for some kind of multiple expansion, and your total return should be quite good. Lowest PE multiple of the peer group. Protected dividend, great capital position.

Still a great domestic franchise, and they'll figure things out in the US. One thing they have to consider is exiting the US completely. Canadian banks have all had a history with the biggest underperformer being the next outperformer (think CIBC). Yield is 6%.

She sold some shares after the penalty was announced, because the measures would cap their US growth, an attractive area for growth. Their discounted valuation reflected concerns. They can still grow in Canada. It trades under 10x PE and the dividend is over 5%. If TD can get their act together and grow earnings, she PE could rise.

Sold on the money-laundering news. The fine wasn't the issue; it was the lid on acquisitions and cap on asset growth.

Will underperform for a little while as they deal with issues, but it trades cheaply at 9.5x PE. Question is: Will earnings fall? He likes TD below the current $75 and would have a half-weight position, but there's a chance this dips below $70, then would add more.

It reached its lowest level on Friday in four years but is holding its guidelines. There is an over-reaction to the asset cap in its U.S. component. 9 to 9 1/2 X earnings is too much of a discount. It has the potential to outperform next year.

Earnings disappointed today, withdrawing some guidance. Not looking good from a fundamental perspective. He thinks they're just getting rid of all the bad stuff at this point, a clean sweep for the new CEO. 

Technically, pulled back to the bottom of the range of support, looks like it will hold. Could have a few days of really negative performance. Once things settle down, it will meander around here a bit. Eventually, the negative news will wear off.

The fine of $3B (over $4B CAD) was mostly provisioned for in stages. Focus will be on adjusted EPS. Likes the business, though displeased with breakdown in governance and integrity. Tarnished, but not beyond redemption. Discounted valuation is compelling -- margin of safety, attractive entry point. Cautiously optimistic that the worst of the bad news is behind it.

He's been selling MFC, with most proceeds going here. Sold off on money-laundering fine and asset cap in US. Market's negative on it, but he sees many ways to grow earnings: grow Canadian operations and US commercial. Great opportunity at 10x PE.

Thought the fine was already priced in, so he was surprised by the huge drop once announced. Big issue is that US franchise was on autopilot, without the great returns from the Canadian side. A chance to reboot. Risk management should improve, and the multiple will come back. Acquisitions are restricted. Lots of capital on hand.

Not a high multiple at 1.2x book, 10x PE. Probably can't buy it any cheaper. Yield is over 5%.

He's swing-traded it twice, but not in it now. You always have to decide if there's a reason for it to go back to the top of its range. Fundamental analysis doesn't like the stock anymore because of all its mistakes, even though looks enticing on the technicals. They've stepped aside.

Banks in general are entering a normal level. Concerns about high interest rates and defaults are mostly in the past. Banks are good to hold here if you want some dividend-paying stocks. Can't imagine this one will be stuck in the penalty box forever.