Mike Vinokur

Yes, but it's also because markets have gone up so much. It's not about the actual print, but more about the expectation prior to the print and did it meet, exceed, or miss that expectation? That's where you have the emotions that run wild.

We're not looking at valuations in a vacuum. Investors can go to cash, bonds, commodities, real estate, private equity, equities, or other asset classes like collectibles. Cash is no longer trash. You're earning a higher return on cash, there's not this impetus to get out of cash and into something else. 

At the end of the day, asset classes are always competing for participants' money. The question is where is our money going to be treated best on a risk/reward basis?

That's not a stretch. It's like a roller coaster where things start to go down, and then they go down all at once and you didn't see it coming.

Savings rate in US was lofty in 2021 during Covid when we were all shut in, hitting a high of 20-30%. It's been coming down. What's alarming is that savings levels have come down to what they were in 2005-2007. We know what happened after that.

He's not trying to be an alarmist saying a recession is on our doorstep. What you are seeing is companies like those mentioned saying that the consumer is not willing to spend the way they were before. Revenge travel is not as buoyant as it was last summer. So, what does that all mean?

Without a doubt, one of the best investments you could have made. Management is unbelievable. Sound business, wonderful balance sheet. As a value investor, does he really wants to pay 35-40x earnings for the hope that the past will repeat? Much steeper incline at that valuation to repeat the same sort of return.

Great company. Smart to expand into snacks, unlike KO, gives diversification. Executes very well. Issue is valuation, 25+ PE range. As a value investor, not interested. Not sure the Ozempic craze is a threat, need to see ramifications.

Recently sold at slight loss, EPS won't have the growth trajectory he thought. Announcement out of left field that they lost a contract and revenue would decline substantially. Reasonably stable business. Over time, will probably be an OK holding. But now market won't have the same confidence in management to execute, stock will be hobbled. He'd look again on further decline.

Likes recent US acquisitions. Excited about the power business because of AI. A lot more power will be demanded on the grid. Undervalued, time to buy. Yield is 6.5%, with plans to increase 5-6% over next couple of years. 

Dividend very safe. Likes management. Price of nat gas doesn't really matter, it's more about aggregate demand. Renewables too. Population growth story for Canada and US. Nat gas is reasonably clean burning, so demand will continue.

These stocks should catch a bid if market thinks interest rate volatility will come down.

Very good Q1. Likes management and assets. Long-life assets, refining business, downstream and upstream, balance sheet exciting as it keeps achieving its debt metrics. In Q3, going to 100% capital return to shareholders. 

Caveat: on cusp of seasonal weakness for oil and gas, which can continue through June, July, sometimes into August. If you're a long-term investor, buy and don't look at it until next Dec-Jan, and it could be up if O&G markets are steady. If you're more technical, buy during the upcoming lull.

Up till now, one of the best operators. This is a blemish for a year. He's concerned that regulators will want to make a point. TD took reserves but it won't be enough for the potential penalty of $2-2.5B. Remember Wells Fargo. 

Big company, makes a lot of money. Dividend not in jeopardy, but may not be increased anytime soon. May be prevented from further acquisitions. Probably no share buybacks. Plus, we could be in a credit cycle with defaults escalating. 

Have to look at valuation. He's waiting. Likes it and its capital levels. If stock pulled back a bit more, he may take a position.

But that's the opportunity. He shies away from buying expensive stocks, as you're always worried that if the growth stops, you're going  to have a downdraft to the downside. When buying a stock that's reasonably priced, you have a margin of safety (you hope).

He sold a while back. When purchased, he estimated the value at $120-125 or 20% above purchase price. Reported earnings, which were good, but he was concerned about growth going forward. Used it to raise cash.

Lot more upside left.

He got out just below $300. Surprised by management's Q1 commentary, didn't expect capex buildout extension and cost escalation. Free cashflow would not arrive until 2028, and this skewed his valuation. Even though it's fallen, fresh eyes would not make him re-enter, risk/reward just not there.

Absolutely. It may not be a situation where the whole business is in jeopardy. But again, you have to decide where is your capital going to be treated best? Sometimes best to just sell at your stop loss and move on.