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Opinions Table


Signal Opinion Expert
N/A
General Market Comment 

December 15, 2017

Market. Technology will continue to be a big driving sector. We've seen a lithium bubble and all sorts of speculative trends in some of the really small junior companies. It's a dichotomy kind of market with large companies doing well, some of the crazy stuff doing well, but some stuff in the middle nobody cares about. People are still worried and still have the recession belief in their brain. Executive confidence is pretty high right now. A rise in interest rates is a given and this is fully reflected in the market right. There are no issues unless the Fed does something crazy. Everyone is talking about synchronized global growth, and that is occurring. It is really time for someone to pay attention to the resource market. There have been lots of takeovers and lots of shortages of production capacity. As you get expansion of capacity demand, then you have to get some sort of slingshot effect in resources. Thinks that sector is going to do better.

Market. Technology will continue to be a big driving sector. We've seen a lithium bubble and all sorts of speculative trends in some of the really small junior companies. It's a dichotomy kind of market with large companies doing well, some of the crazy stuff doing well, but some stuff in the middle nobody cares about. People are still worried and still have the recession belief in their brain. Executive confidence is pretty high right now. A rise in interest rates is a given and this is fully reflected in the market right. There are no issues unless the Fed does something crazy. Everyone is talking about synchronized global growth, and that is occurring. It is really time for someone to pay attention to the resource market. There have been lots of takeovers and lots of shortages of production capacity. As you get expansion of capacity demand, then you have to get some sort of slingshot effect in resources. Thinks that sector is going to do better.

Unknown
Peter Hodson

CEO & Head of Research, 5i Research Inc....

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 15, 2017

Marijuana? An emerging industry, and you cannot value these compConstellation Brands has come in, and we know that other companies will come in as they want a piece of this market. It's probably not because Canada will be huge, but it is when other countries go the legal route. Expects there will be a lot of consolidation. This is going to be crazy, and then you get July and people will realize it is not going to be quite as exciting as what they thought. You can probably trade these until the 1st quarter after legalization, and that is when the party ends.anies. It's all based on what might happen. If every single person in Canada bought $100 worth of weed a year, it is still only a $4 billion market. But if you look at the market cap and what people are expecting; the market cap and potential is just ridiculous. Because of that, he is very, very cautious. The other side is that there will be more consolidation in the industry. 

Marijuana? An emerging industry, and you cannot value these compConstellation Brands has come in, and we know that other companies will come in as they want a piece of this market. It's probably not because Canada will be huge, but it is when other countries go the legal route. Expects there will be a lot of consolidation. This is going to be crazy, and then you get July and people will realize it is not going to be quite as exciting as what they thought. You can probably trade these until the 1st quarter after legalization, and that is when the party ends.anies. It's all based on what might happen. If every single person in Canada bought $100 worth of weed a year, it is still only a $4 billion market. But if you look at the market cap and what people are expecting; the market cap and potential is just ridiculous. Because of that, he is very, very cautious. The other side is that there will be more consolidation in the industry. 

Unknown
Peter Hodson

CEO & Head of Research, 5i Research Inc....

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 15, 2017

Market. He’s been very Long this market for a while, and for asset allocation model 70/30 to fixed income, he is right on the edge in terms of his swing for 90% equity. Stocks are expensive, but are not expensive relative to bonds, apartment buildings, a lot of different private equity alternatives. If you can find a stock with a 11 or 12 PE with a 4% dividend and visibility growing at 10% and EPS, there is still lots of opportunity. As a protection strategy, he is using the options market to squeeze out yield on both sides, using Calls or puts.

Market. He’s been very Long this market for a while, and for asset allocation model 70/30 to fixed income, he is right on the edge in terms of his swing for 90% equity. Stocks are expensive, but are not expensive relative to bonds, apartment buildings, a lot of different private equity alternatives. If you can find a stock with a 11 or 12 PE with a 4% dividend and visibility growing at 10% and EPS, there is still lots of opportunity. As a protection strategy, he is using the options market to squeeze out yield on both sides, using Calls or puts.

Unknown
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 15, 2017

Dividend paying stock to provide an income? He would start with one or 2 banks and 1 or 2 insurance companies. There are some really good industrials that still look good, such as a Magna (MG-T). A lot of people are looking for the high dividend paying stocks, that are good to be owning in this environment. He would suggest a Russell Metals (RUS-T) with about a 5% dividend, which is strengthening from metal prices.

Dividend paying stock to provide an income? He would start with one or 2 banks and 1 or 2 insurance companies. There are some really good industrials that still look good, such as a Magna (MG-T). A lot of people are looking for the high dividend paying stocks, that are good to be owning in this environment. He would suggest a Russell Metals (RUS-T) with about a 5% dividend, which is strengthening from metal prices.

Unknown
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

COMMENT
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

December 15, 2017

Trading at a very reasonable valuation. Tim Cook has been a great custodian for the business. They haven't really done anything super bold. They have so much cash, trading at a reasonable valuation. Tech land still has very reasonable multiples and this company is very reasonable within that. Thinks there is still more to go.

electrical/electronic

Trading at a very reasonable valuation. Tim Cook has been a great custodian for the business. They haven't really done anything super bold. They have so much cash, trading at a reasonable valuation. Tech land still has very reasonable multiples and this company is very reasonable within that. Thinks there is still more to go.

electrical/electronic
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$173.970
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

December 15, 2017

He would put this in the so-so category. This year one of their largest investments got taken out. They made another investment, but also have 3 or 4 investee companies that are not doing so well. They are starting to deal with that, but investors are basically saying they are going to look at this company when all their problems are solved. Investors are also worried about the 8.5% dividend. He doesn't think it will be capped, but wouldn't call it 100% safe either. A very well-run company that is going through a problematic period of time. They earn 15%-16% royalties on their investment, and you don't get that type of return without some risk. Unfortunately, they hit 3 or 4 problems all in a short period of time.

oil/gas

He would put this in the so-so category. This year one of their largest investments got taken out. They made another investment, but also have 3 or 4 investee companies that are not doing so well. They are starting to deal with that, but investors are basically saying they are going to look at this company when all their problems are solved. Investors are also worried about the 8.5% dividend. He doesn't think it will be capped, but wouldn't call it 100% safe either. A very well-run company that is going through a problematic period of time. They earn 15%-16% royalties on their investment, and you don't get that type of return without some risk. Unfortunately, they hit 3 or 4 problems all in a short period of time.

oil/gas
Peter Hodson

CEO & Head of Research, 5i Research Inc....

PricePrice
$29.040
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

December 15, 2017

Doesn't cover this one actively. They did a deal in the US that looks accretive. He prefers Penbina (PPL-T) which has a much better growth rate and a clearer thesis. The payout ratio, it is something like 5% of free cash flow, and he thinks you are going to be fine in terms of the dividend.

oil/gas

Doesn't cover this one actively. They did a deal in the US that looks accretive. He prefers Penbina (PPL-T) which has a much better growth rate and a clearer thesis. The payout ratio, it is something like 5% of free cash flow, and he thinks you are going to be fine in terms of the dividend.

oil/gas
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$29.040
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT
Arc Resources Ltd(ARX-T) 

December 15, 2017

This has just fallen apart with ECO prices, with Henry hub falling. The markets have been so good that portfolio managers are just taking losers and dumping them as tax loss selling targets. Thinks there will be a pop between now and the 3rd week of January. The bad news is that the dividend has a 142% effective payout ratio, so it is not safe. The balance sheet is not ironclad.

oil/gas

This has just fallen apart with ECO prices, with Henry hub falling. The markets have been so good that portfolio managers are just taking losers and dumping them as tax loss selling targets. Thinks there will be a pop between now and the 3rd week of January. The bad news is that the dividend has a 142% effective payout ratio, so it is not safe. The balance sheet is not ironclad.

oil/gas
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$13.880
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

December 15, 2017

Still trading at close to tangible BV of around 1X. On a PE basis, it is a little more expensive than Toronto Dominion (TD-T), maybe around 14X versus 12X. With rising interest rates, a slightly better net interest margin, a rebounding America, and the corporate tax plan, this company really stands to benefit. This one is going higher.

banks

Still trading at close to tangible BV of around 1X. On a PE basis, it is a little more expensive than Toronto Dominion (TD-T), maybe around 14X versus 12X. With rising interest rates, a slightly better net interest margin, a rebounding America, and the corporate tax plan, this company really stands to benefit. This one is going higher.

banks
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$29.040
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT
Bombardier Inc (B)(BBD.B-T) 

December 15, 2017

Thinks this has finally turned the corner. It is definitely risky. New management continues to deliver on goals and milestones. He believes that the sum of the parts valuation is at $3.75 and that the C series is worth another $.72. He is modelling 30% EBITDA growth 2017-2020, and it is trading at a reasonable valuation of 9.2, versus its peers of 11.6. A good risk/reward story.

transportation equip & components

Thinks this has finally turned the corner. It is definitely risky. New management continues to deliver on goals and milestones. He believes that the sum of the parts valuation is at $3.75 and that the C series is worth another $.72. He is modelling 30% EBITDA growth 2017-2020, and it is trading at a reasonable valuation of 9.2, versus its peers of 11.6. A good risk/reward story.

transportation equip & components
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$3.070
Owned Owned
Unknown

HOLD

This stock never gets cheap. He expects them to grow their cash flow 6%-11% annually from contract inflation and margin expansion and development. They want to grow their dividend 5% annually. The only thing is, it is very expensive, trading at a 5.9% 2018 pre-cash yield.

Utilities

This stock never gets cheap. He expects them to grow their cash flow 6%-11% annually from contract inflation and margin expansion and development. They want to grow their dividend 5% annually. The only thing is, it is very expensive, trading at a 5.9% 2018 pre-cash yield.

Utilities
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$44.240
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
Birchcliff Energy Ltd.(BIR-T) 

December 15, 2017

Average down? As a general rule, he doesn't ever like averaging down. Mathematically, it has been proven it’s not a good strategy. You have a situation where investors are not liking the company. There are always other investors that are going to throw in the towel after you’ve averaged down. This is interesting, because the company was up for sale in the $8-$9 range many years ago, and is actually quite a well-run gas company that continues to hit new lows, and we are in the middle of tax loss right now, and he thinks there is an opportunity. Wouldn't be really too worried if you bought more, as long as your position limit is within reason. A great company, but in the wrong sector. If you have a few years, it is probably safe to Buy.

oil/gas

Average down? As a general rule, he doesn't ever like averaging down. Mathematically, it has been proven it’s not a good strategy. You have a situation where investors are not liking the company. There are always other investors that are going to throw in the towel after you’ve averaged down. This is interesting, because the company was up for sale in the $8-$9 range many years ago, and is actually quite a well-run gas company that continues to hit new lows, and we are in the middle of tax loss right now, and he thinks there is an opportunity. Wouldn't be really too worried if you bought more, as long as your position limit is within reason. A great company, but in the wrong sector. If you have a few years, it is probably safe to Buy.

oil/gas
Peter Hodson

CEO & Head of Research, 5i Research Inc....

PricePrice
$3.890
Owned Owned
Unknown

PAST TOP PICK
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS-T) 

December 15, 2017

(A Top Pick Dec 9/16. Up 11%.) Had thought the banks were a good deal because of a rebound in the economy in front of us. Also felt that this had the best mix at the time. They’re also trading at an attractive valuation. All these things are still there. Still a buy.

banks

(A Top Pick Dec 9/16. Up 11%.) Had thought the banks were a good deal because of a rebound in the economy in front of us. Also felt that this had the best mix at the time. They’re also trading at an attractive valuation. All these things are still there. Still a buy.

banks
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$82.160
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Has done a great job in winning municipality bus contracts. The stock really, really ramped up, and then investors paused a little, and said now that you've got the orders, show us you can make money. They've had 2 good quarters in terms of profitability, so they've proven they can take an order and make money off of it. Now it is just a situation of replacing orders they have, growing their backlog and winning new business. A nice little company in the early stages of growth, but it also means that if anything goes wrong, the very, very high expectations will be wrong and the stock will be volatile if there are any problems.

Transportation

Has done a great job in winning municipality bus contracts. The stock really, really ramped up, and then investors paused a little, and said now that you've got the orders, show us you can make money. They've had 2 good quarters in terms of profitability, so they've proven they can take an order and make money off of it. Now it is just a situation of replacing orders they have, growing their backlog and winning new business. A nice little company in the early stages of growth, but it also means that if anything goes wrong, the very, very high expectations will be wrong and the stock will be volatile if there are any problems.

Transportation
Peter Hodson

CEO & Head of Research, 5i Research Inc....

PricePrice
$2.090
Owned Owned
Unknown

PAST TOP PICK
Cara Operations Ltd.(CARA-T) 

December 15, 2017

(A Top Pick Dec 9/16. Up 3%.) This really hasn't come to fruition yet. He chose it for its discounted valuation. Trading at around 9X versus same restaurant peers that are trading around 15X that have growth. It has been impacted by minimum wage hikes. He is looking for 3% restaurant sales growth over 2018 from a rebound in Calgary and the strong Québec. A very good name to be owning.

food services

(A Top Pick Dec 9/16. Up 3%.) This really hasn't come to fruition yet. He chose it for its discounted valuation. Trading at around 9X versus same restaurant peers that are trading around 15X that have growth. It has been impacted by minimum wage hikes. He is looking for 3% restaurant sales growth over 2018 from a rebound in Calgary and the strong Québec. A very good name to be owning.

food services
Greg Newman

Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Manage...

PricePrice
$25.780
Owned Owned
Yes

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