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Opinions Table


Signal Opinion Expert
N/A
General Market Comment 

December 14, 2017

Are Canadian banks safe? He likes TD (TD-T) for its growing US exposure. Thinks they are going to get better results and the dividends are all safe. Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) is the 3rd on his list that he owns, and they are expanding their US exposure as well. Also has the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) which gives you an entry into central America and Chile, giving you offshore banking. These would give you a diversification that really reduces the risk in the event the Canadian situation turns a bit sour.

Are Canadian banks safe? He likes TD (TD-T) for its growing US exposure. Thinks they are going to get better results and the dividends are all safe. Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) is the 3rd on his list that he owns, and they are expanding their US exposure as well. Also has the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) which gives you an entry into central America and Chile, giving you offshore banking. These would give you a diversification that really reduces the risk in the event the Canadian situation turns a bit sour.

Unknown
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 14, 2017

How do you assess the NAFTA agreement if the US pulls out? This is a very political situation. One of the main themes of Pres. Trump was to tear up NAFTA. So far, he’s followed through on just about anything he said he was going to do. Doesn't feel he can tear up NAFTA, but can set the scene if negotiations fail, which he thinks is going to happen. What happens after that is critical. If we pull back to the old Canadian/US free trade deal, we are almost back to square one, i.e., we don't really get hurt that much. From a market standpoint, if NAFTA gets washed out we could see our markets get hit from a psychological standpoint. That would be a buying opportunity, because when the dust settles, Trump's real target is Mexico, not Canada. He can't believe Trump would blow a hole in the US automotive industry just to satisfy a political promise.

How do you assess the NAFTA agreement if the US pulls out? This is a very political situation. One of the main themes of Pres. Trump was to tear up NAFTA. So far, he’s followed through on just about anything he said he was going to do. Doesn't feel he can tear up NAFTA, but can set the scene if negotiations fail, which he thinks is going to happen. What happens after that is critical. If we pull back to the old Canadian/US free trade deal, we are almost back to square one, i.e., we don't really get hurt that much. From a market standpoint, if NAFTA gets washed out we could see our markets get hit from a psychological standpoint. That would be a buying opportunity, because when the dust settles, Trump's real target is Mexico, not Canada. He can't believe Trump would blow a hole in the US automotive industry just to satisfy a political promise.

Unknown
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

COMMENT
Alaris Royalty(AD-T) 

December 14, 2017

You have to have a lot of faith as to where you are getting the royalty income.  You have to have a lot of confidence in what they are investing in.  Some of them have not worked out and some have been spectacular.  He has a small holding.

Financial Services

You have to have a lot of faith as to where you are getting the royalty income.  You have to have a lot of confidence in what they are investing in.  Some of them have not worked out and some have been spectacular.  He has a small holding.

Financial Services
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$19.070
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK
Allergan PLC.(AGN-N) 

December 14, 2017

They are the maker of Botox.  They have a drug for dry eye syndrome that will come off patent but his analysis of the case for losing all revenue from the drug has them still doing well.  They have a good drug pipeline.  (Analysts’ target: $225.00).

Consumer Products

They are the maker of Botox.  They have a drug for dry eye syndrome that will come off patent but his analysis of the case for losing all revenue from the drug has them still doing well.  They have a good drug pipeline.  (Analysts’ target: $225.00).

Consumer Products
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$170.940
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

December 14, 2017

He likes the name.  There is the uncertainty of the acquisition in the US.  They are going through the process of getting state approval.  They are down to one district.  It will probably come in March or April.  Some announced divestitures will probably be a catalyst for the stock.

oil/gas

He likes the name.  There is the uncertainty of the acquisition in the US.  They are going through the process of getting state approval.  They are down to one district.  It will probably come in March or April.  Some announced divestitures will probably be a catalyst for the stock.

oil/gas
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$29.200
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

December 14, 2017

Doesn't tend to be a super exciting stock, but the yield is fantastic. Has it in his portfolios to generate a steady cash flow and increases in the dividend over time. The dominant telco in Canada. They continue to show imagination in the things they do. This is a "buy and hold" situation.

telephone utilities

Doesn't tend to be a super exciting stock, but the yield is fantastic. Has it in his portfolios to generate a steady cash flow and increases in the dividend over time. The dominant telco in Canada. They continue to show imagination in the things they do. This is a "buy and hold" situation.

telephone utilities
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$61.690
Owned Owned
Yes

WEAK BUY

Almost 10% dividend.  It specializes in children’s content and woman’s content.  They have too much debt but are paying it down.  Dividend coverage is getting a bit close.  There is a large holding by Shaw so you never know when they will sell more of it.

entertainment services

Almost 10% dividend.  It specializes in children’s content and woman’s content.  They have too much debt but are paying it down.  Dividend coverage is getting a bit close.  There is a large holding by Shaw so you never know when they will sell more of it.

entertainment services
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$11.580
Owned Owned
No

HOLD

Former darling of many investors.  They still pay a dividend but it was reduced.  The company was quite acquisitive over the years.  At times they may have grown too fast.  They have decent properties.  They don’t have the best balance sheet but at these valuations it is cheap.  Hang on to it to see if you get a recovery.

oil/gas

Former darling of many investors.  They still pay a dividend but it was reduced.  The company was quite acquisitive over the years.  At times they may have grown too fast.  They have decent properties.  They don’t have the best balance sheet but at these valuations it is cheap.  Hang on to it to see if you get a recovery.

oil/gas
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$8.490
Owned Owned
Unknown

WATCH
Capital Power(CPX-T) 

December 14, 2017

Just won a 20 year project n Alberta for a wind project.  Some of their assets are being transitioned from coal.  He is studying this company because the electricity market in this province will become more robust as coal is taken off line.  He is doing more work in it.  Electricity prices in the province may recover as they shut down coal.

electrical utilities

Just won a 20 year project n Alberta for a wind project.  Some of their assets are being transitioned from coal.  He is studying this company because the electricity market in this province will become more robust as coal is taken off line.  He is doing more work in it.  Electricity prices in the province may recover as they shut down coal.

electrical utilities
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$24.530
Owned Owned
No

BUY

Hard liquor and some wines.  Very good brands.  He has looked at it and likes it at times but they are too highly valued at times. It one shareholder has too much so it is not liquid enough for him.  As cannabis becomes more main stream, they may want to invest in it in some way.

breweries/beverages

Hard liquor and some wines.  Very good brands.  He has looked at it and likes it at times but they are too highly valued at times. It one shareholder has too much so it is not liquid enough for him.  As cannabis becomes more main stream, they may want to invest in it in some way.

breweries/beverages
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$21.540
Owned Owned
Unknown

WAIT
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

December 14, 2017

Watching this with interest. Sold his holdings not too long ago, as it seemed to be drifting down. The Fox acquisition may change the equation. It did very well for him until it started going sideways in the last year or so. The jury is out and we are going to have to wait and see. Thinks they are going to be head to head with Netflix as soon as the dust settles.

entertainment services

Watching this with interest. Sold his holdings not too long ago, as it seemed to be drifting down. The Fox acquisition may change the equation. It did very well for him until it started going sideways in the last year or so. The jury is out and we are going to have to wait and see. Thinks they are going to be head to head with Netflix as soon as the dust settles.

entertainment services
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$110.570
Owned Owned
No

DON'T BUY
Empire Company (A)(EMP.A-T) 

December 14, 2017

A year ago they went through a restructuring and then a big acquisition in Safeway.  They were left with a banner that had few discount brands in Western Canada, then tinkered with their loyalty program and that upset consumers.  Last quarter the results were not liked.  He used to have it but now prefers WN-T or L-T. 

food stores

A year ago they went through a restructuring and then a big acquisition in Safeway.  They were left with a banner that had few discount brands in Western Canada, then tinkered with their loyalty program and that upset consumers.  Last quarter the results were not liked.  He used to have it but now prefers WN-T or L-T. 

food stores
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$23.830
Owned Owned
No

WAIT
Empire Company (A)(EMP.A-T) 

December 14, 2017

This has been acting quite well recently, and doesn't know if this is a bottom or a top. It’s a good company. They made a mess of their acquisition in Alberta and have a plan to fix things. The multiple is extremely high. There’s been a lot of anticipation that this turnaround is going to happen more quickly than he thinks is possible. Looking into 2018 the stock looks fully priced. He isn’t a fan of the grocery business. Wait to see how well they do in turning things around in Alberta.

food stores

This has been acting quite well recently, and doesn't know if this is a bottom or a top. It’s a good company. They made a mess of their acquisition in Alberta and have a plan to fix things. The multiple is extremely high. There’s been a lot of anticipation that this turnaround is going to happen more quickly than he thinks is possible. Looking into 2018 the stock looks fully priced. He isn’t a fan of the grocery business. Wait to see how well they do in turning things around in Alberta.

food stores
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$23.830
Owned Owned
Unknown

DON'T BUY
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

December 14, 2017

Why is there such a disconnect between the flat earnings trend in the last 4 years, the high rising debt levels, and that they have an extremely generous dividend policy? A lot of people are asking the same question. This one is not on his "favourites" list at all. The political situation for this company and TransCanada (TRP-T) is that the politics of the world have become very negative for large pipelines. He thought this company's Northern Gateway was doomed from the start. They are not paying enough attention to the political aspects and the political environment. He would not recommend this.

oil/gas pipelines

Why is there such a disconnect between the flat earnings trend in the last 4 years, the high rising debt levels, and that they have an extremely generous dividend policy? A lot of people are asking the same question. This one is not on his "favourites" list at all. The political situation for this company and TransCanada (TRP-T) is that the politics of the world have become very negative for large pipelines. He thought this company's Northern Gateway was doomed from the start. They are not paying enough attention to the political aspects and the political environment. He would not recommend this.

oil/gas pipelines
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$49.320
Owned Owned
Unknown

HOLD

They recently raised equity.  It gives you a 6.9% dividend rate with modest growth.  He’d like to see the government change the rules regarding these equities.

oil/gas

They recently raised equity.  It gives you a 6.9% dividend rate with modest growth.  He’d like to see the government change the rules regarding these equities.

oil/gas
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$29.660
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY
Goldcorp Inc(G-T) 

December 14, 2017

Based on seasonal studies, people suggest December is a good time to buy gold.  It is one of the more senior gold stocks.  Sometimes they have a rotation where each one underperforms in subsequent years.  This year however, BitCoin has outperformed.  He thinks this is a good time to buy gold.

precious metals

Based on seasonal studies, people suggest December is a good time to buy gold.  It is one of the more senior gold stocks.  Sometimes they have a rotation where each one underperforms in subsequent years.  This year however, BitCoin has outperformed.  He thinks this is a good time to buy gold.

precious metals
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$15.830
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT

Very dubious about the whole marijuana sector. It's an area where you can sort of put your sign up saying we are now in the marijuana business, and away you go. There are some big legitimate companies that are going to do well, but we really don't know exactly how well they are going to do. He is not sure they will be very profitable.

E.T.F.'s

Very dubious about the whole marijuana sector. It's an area where you can sort of put your sign up saying we are now in the marijuana business, and away you go. There are some big legitimate companies that are going to do well, but we really don't know exactly how well they are going to do. He is not sure they will be very profitable.

E.T.F.'s
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$15.210
Owned Owned
No

BUY

This has been a great performer. He's gotten a little worried about it because it has done so well, and has taken some profits here and there. If you want to get into that area in a diversified way, this has all the Fang stocks and has done exceptionally well. The US economy looks in pretty good shape. The industry, as a whole, will continue to do well as long as the US economy is perking along, and will tend to do better than other segments. Not a bad place to put your money, but he wouldn't overweight it at the present. There might be a further correction sometime in January that will offer a better opportunity.

E.T.F.'s

This has been a great performer. He's gotten a little worried about it because it has done so well, and has taken some profits here and there. If you want to get into that area in a diversified way, this has all the Fang stocks and has done exceptionally well. The US economy looks in pretty good shape. The industry, as a whole, will continue to do well as long as the US economy is perking along, and will tend to do better than other segments. Not a bad place to put your money, but he wouldn't overweight it at the present. There might be a further correction sometime in January that will offer a better opportunity.

E.T.F.'s
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$168.800
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Down 1%.) The whole sector is suffering from the view that somehow energy is going to disappear in the next couple of years, which he doesn't believe at all. The dividend seems to be relatively safe. Has added to his positions.

oil pipelines

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Down 1%.) The whole sector is suffering from the view that somehow energy is going to disappear in the next couple of years, which he doesn't believe at all. The dividend seems to be relatively safe. Has added to his positions.

oil pipelines
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$27.270
Owned Owned
Yes

HOLD
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ-N) 

December 14, 2017

A very large US company.  Pharma, consumer products and medical devices.  Great balance sheet, triple ‘A” rated.  The first two areas are doing well right now, but have done better.  Expect good earnings and cash flow.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical

A very large US company.  Pharma, consumer products and medical devices.  Great balance sheet, triple ‘A” rated.  The first two areas are doing well right now, but have done better.  Expect good earnings and cash flow.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$141.650
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY
Linamar Corp(LNR-T) 

December 14, 2017

They are winning a lot of business from OEMs as they outsource part of the design of engine blocks.  They have another industrial division, Skyjack.  Last year they had a contract that was cancelled. He likes them.  They are really well managed.  It might too early to call an end to car purchases.  He likes this one and thinks it is a good buy right here.

transportation equip & components

They are winning a lot of business from OEMs as they outsource part of the design of engine blocks.  They have another industrial division, Skyjack.  Last year they had a contract that was cancelled. He likes them.  They are really well managed.  It might too early to call an end to car purchases.  He likes this one and thinks it is a good buy right here.

transportation equip & components
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$65.020
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK
Lowes Companies Inc.(LOW-N) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 13/16, Up 24%)  HD-N is the number one player.  He thinks if there is room for improvement here then he would go into this one.  It does not have the premium valuation of HD-N.

misc industrial products

(A Top Pick Oct 13/16, Up 24%)  HD-N is the number one player.  He thinks if there is room for improvement here then he would go into this one.  It does not have the premium valuation of HD-N.

misc industrial products
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$85.580
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK
Maxar Technologies(MAXR-T) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 13/16, Up 8%)  They build a lot of satellites for a lot of defense agencies around the world.  He thinks it will get a valuation more in tune with US satellite companies.  He continues to hold it and likes the prospects.  They bought digital global and so should find it easier to win US contracts.

computer software/processing

(A Top Pick Oct 13/16, Up 8%)  They build a lot of satellites for a lot of defense agencies around the world.  He thinks it will get a valuation more in tune with US satellite companies.  He continues to hold it and likes the prospects.  They bought digital global and so should find it easier to win US contracts.

computer software/processing
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$84.280
Owned Owned
Yes

WEAK BUY
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

December 14, 2017

They have operations around the world.  They are the large asset business in Canada and the US.  The new management was positive for the stock and it had a good run.  He would pick SLF-T over MFC-T, however.  Both are decent investments.

insurance

They have operations around the world.  They are the large asset business in Canada and the US.  The new management was positive for the stock and it had a good run.  He would pick SLF-T over MFC-T, however.  Both are decent investments.

insurance
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$26.390
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK
Norbord Inc(OSB-T) 

December 14, 2017

Oriented strand board. He’s looking for ways to get a piece of the action in US housing, which still has a decade of catching up to do. Their big problem is getting people who know how to nail a board together. The industry is really short of skilled labour, and there is a shortage of new houses and new construction. A company like this, which produces a product very similar to plywood, is very good. Sees a rising dividend in this. Dividend yield of 5.7%. (Analysts' price target is $50.50.)

household goods

Oriented strand board. He’s looking for ways to get a piece of the action in US housing, which still has a decade of catching up to do. Their big problem is getting people who know how to nail a board together. The industry is really short of skilled labour, and there is a shortage of new houses and new construction. A company like this, which produces a product very similar to plywood, is very good. Sees a rising dividend in this. Dividend yield of 5.7%. (Analysts' price target is $50.50.)

household goods
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$42.380
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY
Pembina Pipeline Corp(PPL-T) 

December 14, 2017

These are local Alberta pipelines, and not facing the same kind of political headwinds the big pipeline companies seem to be experiencing. Feels the dividend is relatively safe and management is good. Despite problematic oil prices, new capacity continues to come on from the oil sands. If you want to buy for the dividend, it is a good, safe investment. He is not as negative on the oil/gas sector as some people are.

pipelines

These are local Alberta pipelines, and not facing the same kind of political headwinds the big pipeline companies seem to be experiencing. Feels the dividend is relatively safe and management is good. Despite problematic oil prices, new capacity continues to come on from the oil sands. If you want to buy for the dividend, it is a good, safe investment. He is not as negative on the oil/gas sector as some people are.

pipelines
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$44.770
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY
Scholastic Corp.(SCHL-Q) 

December 14, 2017

He owns it in a smaller cap fund.  They are the largest printer of children’s content in the world.  They have great real estate in Manhattan.  They reported last night and EPS and revenue were down a bit.  But a better metric is price to cash flow and he likes it.  They have no debt.  In a couple of years this company could be taken out by a larger entity.

communications/media

He owns it in a smaller cap fund.  They are the largest printer of children’s content in the world.  They have great real estate in Manhattan.  They reported last night and EPS and revenue were down a bit.  But a better metric is price to cash flow and he likes it.  They have no debt.  In a couple of years this company could be taken out by a larger entity.

communications/media
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$40.350
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 94%.) Took his positions out at around $122 when he felt it was becoming a target by activists. It has yet to make any earnings. If it sold back under $100, he would have another hard look at it.

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 94%.) Took his positions out at around $122 when he felt it was becoming a target by activists. It has yet to make any earnings. If it sold back under $100, he would have another hard look at it.

0
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$131.590
Owned Owned
No

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 13/16, Up 19%)  There is concern about how much they have to spend to build out the Wind network.  He decided to take his profits.

Cable

(A Top Pick Oct 13/16, Up 19%)  There is concern about how much they have to spend to build out the Wind network.  He decided to take his profits.

Cable
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$29.490
Owned Owned
No

TOP PICK
Sun Life Financial Inc(SLF-T) 

December 14, 2017

They have done really well in Asia over the last 5 years.  They have grown it at 30%.  He sees good growth there.  They have done a great job of getting away from capital heavy businesses into capital light businesses.  12 times earnings, good valuation and a very solid company.  (Analysts’ target: $54.00).

insurance

They have done really well in Asia over the last 5 years.  They have grown it at 30%.  He sees good growth there.  They have done a great job of getting away from capital heavy businesses into capital light businesses.  12 times earnings, good valuation and a very solid company.  (Analysts’ target: $54.00).

insurance
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$51.750
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK
Sun Life Financial Inc(SLF-T) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 6%.) A good safe dividend payer. Has added to some positions. A well-run company. It will do well in a good economic environment.

insurance

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 6%.) A good safe dividend payer. Has added to some positions. A well-run company. It will do well in a good economic environment.

insurance
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$51.750
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK
Stanley Works, The(SWK-N) 

December 14, 2017

They have power tools, fasteners and security divisions, less than 18 times earnings and a good balance sheet.  They invested in Craftsman from Sears.  55% of revenues are from the US and the rest are from outside.  They raised the dividend for 50 years.  (Analysts’ target: $183.00).

misc industrial products

They have power tools, fasteners and security divisions, less than 18 times earnings and a good balance sheet.  They invested in Craftsman from Sears.  55% of revenues are from the US and the rest are from outside.  They raised the dividend for 50 years.  (Analysts’ target: $183.00).

misc industrial products
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$164.940
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY on WEAKNESS

The company is transforming itself from traditional printing like the Global and Mail, getting into socialized packaging.  He thinks it is a decent strategy.  The analyst community in the US does not know how to value this company.  He would add on any pull back.

publishing/printing

The company is transforming itself from traditional printing like the Global and Mail, getting into socialized packaging.  He thinks it is a decent strategy.  The analyst community in the US does not know how to value this company.  He would add on any pull back.

publishing/printing
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$26.090
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

December 14, 2017

Has been a fan of this bank, particularly with their US expansion, but was disappointed, thinking the US side was not throwing off the kind of returns he originally expected. Recently, the numbers on the Canadian side were indifferent, but very good on the US side. This is a way to buy into the US market. (Analysts' price target is $70.50.)

banks

Has been a fan of this bank, particularly with their US expansion, but was disappointed, thinking the US side was not throwing off the kind of returns he originally expected. Recently, the numbers on the Canadian side were indifferent, but very good on the US side. This is a way to buy into the US market. (Analysts' price target is $70.50.)

banks
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$71.700
Owned Owned
Yes

DON'T BUY
Trinidad Drilling Ltd(TDG-T) 

December 14, 2017

Drilling rigs in Canada and the US. It is trading cheaply, below book value.  A lot of analysts are not bullish on day rates for rigs.  That could change.  The best rigs with the best crews will be put to use.  He would prefer PD-T.

oil/gas field services

Drilling rigs in Canada and the US. It is trading cheaply, below book value.  A lot of analysts are not bullish on day rates for rigs.  That could change.  The best rigs with the best crews will be put to use.  He would prefer PD-T.

oil/gas field services
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$1.480
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT

Has held this in the past and did very well with it, but wants to be a little more convinced metal prices are really on a discernible uptrend. With the world economic numbers looking better, that is a distinct possibility. Presently it is a bit pricey. To him, it is still in the risk areas that is outside of what he could readily accept.

precious metals

Has held this in the past and did very well with it, but wants to be a little more convinced metal prices are really on a discernible uptrend. With the world economic numbers looking better, that is a distinct possibility. Presently it is a bit pricey. To him, it is still in the risk areas that is outside of what he could readily accept.

precious metals
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$29.860
Owned Owned
No

WEAK BUY
TransCanada Corp(TRP-T) 

December 14, 2017

The pipeline space is quite stable.  Their plans are quite good.  He could only own so many names in the space.  He prefers PPL-T because they are diversified more into the mid-stream and infrastructure spaces.

oil/gas pipelines

The pipeline space is quite stable.  Their plans are quite good.  He could only own so many names in the space.  He prefers PPL-T because they are diversified more into the mid-stream and infrastructure spaces.

oil/gas pipelines
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$61.810
Owned Owned
No

DON'T BUY
United Parcel Services(UPS-N) 

December 14, 2017

This is their busy time.  It is not as compelling now.  Their peak date is in a few days.  Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year.  They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates.  It could lead to higher costs also.  Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well.  It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business.  At some point Ecommerce growth will slow.  At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.

Transportation

This is their busy time.  It is not as compelling now.  Their peak date is in a few days.  Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year.  They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates.  It could lead to higher costs also.  Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well.  It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business.  At some point Ecommerce growth will slow.  At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.

Transportation
Michael Simpson, CFA

Senior Vice-President, Sentry Investments...

PricePrice
$116.840
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
Valeant Pharmaceuticals(VRX-T) 

December 14, 2017

He’s always very cautious with fallen angels. It almost takes a miracle to bring them back to life. The company has a huge debt. They still have some assets that are worthwhile, but are trying to work their way out of a very difficult situation. A long, hard road ahead before this company gets out of the woods.

Consumer Products

He’s always very cautious with fallen angels. It almost takes a miracle to bring them back to life. The company has a huge debt. They still have some assets that are worthwhile, but are trying to work their way out of a very difficult situation. A long, hard road ahead before this company gets out of the woods.

Consumer Products
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$25.110
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK

In the past, he’s tended to focus more on the BMO Low Volatility Cdn Eqty (ZLB-T) on the Canadian side, but it lacks exposure to commodities. If you want exposure to the commodity side, this is one way to do it.

E.T.F.'s

In the past, he’s tended to focus more on the BMO Low Volatility Cdn Eqty (ZLB-T) on the Canadian side, but it lacks exposure to commodities. If you want exposure to the commodity side, this is one way to do it.

E.T.F.'s
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$25.480
Owned Owned
Yes

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2017

Market. Believes we began a re-evaluation of the equity asset class in 2013. 2013 was when we took out the highs of the bull market of the 1990s, and it was the first major global developed market to take out all time highs. That was and has been the leader ever since. Bull markets tend to last 15-18 years with interruptions. Since 2013, multiples have steadily been improving since people became more comfortable with the future. We had the first serious correction in 2015 and beginning of 2016, and that was a reset starting a 2nd cyclical rally. We’re about 2 years into that and probably have another year in front of us in the cyclical rally. The secular re-evaluation of the equities goes on for another 10-12 years. Earnings are going up, so we pay for that. The quality of the earnings is getting better. We have revenue growth as opposed to just cost cutting. The average company in the S&P 500 is yielding just over 6% on its capital, so you are getting paid about 3% excess return to buy stocks, compared to bonds. You're getting paid well to take risks. Expects that a year from now we will get a significant correction, but we have another year to get pretty significant returns before it happens. Once you have that correction out of the way, then you have another 3-4 years in front of you.

Market. Believes we began a re-evaluation of the equity asset class in 2013. 2013 was when we took out the highs of the bull market of the 1990s, and it was the first major global developed market to take out all time highs. That was and has been the leader ever since. Bull markets tend to last 15-18 years with interruptions. Since 2013, multiples have steadily been improving since people became more comfortable with the future. We had the first serious correction in 2015 and beginning of 2016, and that was a reset starting a 2nd cyclical rally. We’re about 2 years into that and probably have another year in front of us in the cyclical rally. The secular re-evaluation of the equities goes on for another 10-12 years. Earnings are going up, so we pay for that. The quality of the earnings is getting better. We have revenue growth as opposed to just cost cutting. The average company in the S&P 500 is yielding just over 6% on its capital, so you are getting paid about 3% excess return to buy stocks, compared to bonds. You're getting paid well to take risks. Expects that a year from now we will get a significant correction, but we have another year to get pretty significant returns before it happens. Once you have that correction out of the way, then you have another 3-4 years in front of you.

Unknown
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2017

Bitcoins. He looked at this from an interest standpoint 4 or 5 years ago in the early stages, and has done a fair bit of work on blockchain, but who would've known that there would have been this kind of parabolic move. Anecdotally, some people are saying that when they go to sell their Bitcoins, it can be hard to actually realize the cash. The plumbing is really very early stage, but is slowly being built and he will see what it will build into. Blockchain technology, as it applies to a whole bunch of different industries, might be really, really interesting.

Bitcoins. He looked at this from an interest standpoint 4 or 5 years ago in the early stages, and has done a fair bit of work on blockchain, but who would've known that there would have been this kind of parabolic move. Anecdotally, some people are saying that when they go to sell their Bitcoins, it can be hard to actually realize the cash. The plumbing is really very early stage, but is slowly being built and he will see what it will build into. Blockchain technology, as it applies to a whole bunch of different industries, might be really, really interesting.

Unknown
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2017

Lighten up on ETF fang stocks to put more into US financials? There is a question as to whether we are seeing money rotate from tech into some financials, which are a beneficiary of rising rates. We are in a reflationary cycle that benefits banks and the banks have a long path in front of them for revaluation. You want to own both. It is a great pairing to have the growth attached to the fangs, and at the same time have a significant position in the financials.

Lighten up on ETF fang stocks to put more into US financials? There is a question as to whether we are seeing money rotate from tech into some financials, which are a beneficiary of rising rates. We are in a reflationary cycle that benefits banks and the banks have a long path in front of them for revaluation. You want to own both. It is a great pairing to have the growth attached to the fangs, and at the same time have a significant position in the financials.

Unknown
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2017

Market. We are into tax loss selling which will put pressure on the upside going forward. People are becoming very wary of valuation levels. Since 2008, we haven't had any really significant setback in the markets. The underlying geopolitical factors are still at work. There are tensions in Europe but have been most predominant since 2008 with the debts of Italy, Portugal, Spain, etc. That ultimately led to the BREXIT vote. There are also tensions in Asia. The US itself is a big unknown right now because of NAFTA, which has been of particular concern in Canada. Despite that, the market has continued pushing ahead. He is in higher levels of cash than he was a year ago. That's about the only thing a prudent investor can do at this time.

Market. We are into tax loss selling which will put pressure on the upside going forward. People are becoming very wary of valuation levels. Since 2008, we haven't had any really significant setback in the markets. The underlying geopolitical factors are still at work. There are tensions in Europe but have been most predominant since 2008 with the debts of Italy, Portugal, Spain, etc. That ultimately led to the BREXIT vote. There are also tensions in Asia. The US itself is a big unknown right now because of NAFTA, which has been of particular concern in Canada. Despite that, the market has continued pushing ahead. He is in higher levels of cash than he was a year ago. That's about the only thing a prudent investor can do at this time.

Unknown
Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

TOP PICK
Alaris Royalty(AD-T) 

December 13, 2017

Invests in a diversified range of private companies in North America. A number of their investee companies ran into problems, and at the same time, they got into a dispute with the CRA. It's been a long work-out with a number of these companies, and a few are still outstanding, but most things are beginning to settle and stabilize. Some of the investments have been renegotiated and are beginning to contribute to cash flow again. The main point is that they are beginning to deploy capital again in a very significant way. This has limited downside, but great potential upside. Dividend yield of 8.6%. (Analysts' price target is $23.)

Financial Services

Invests in a diversified range of private companies in North America. A number of their investee companies ran into problems, and at the same time, they got into a dispute with the CRA. It's been a long work-out with a number of these companies, and a few are still outstanding, but most things are beginning to settle and stabilize. Some of the investments have been renegotiated and are beginning to contribute to cash flow again. The main point is that they are beginning to deploy capital again in a very significant way. This has limited downside, but great potential upside. Dividend yield of 8.6%. (Analysts' price target is $23.)

Financial Services
Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$18.990
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK
AGT Food & Ingredients(AGT-T) 

December 13, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 1/17. Down 42%.) It was as though the perfect storm had hit. Because they don't treat their pulses a certain way, they had some problems importing to India until they received the exemption. The company has diversified into the food and ingredients area more. Parts of the business are doing very well. He perceives this as more of a cyclical problem. They have an oversupply in a number of areas that have to work its way through the system, which could happen within the next 6 months to a year. At these prices, this stock could be fairly attractive, although it is a bit higher risk/reward.

agriculture

(A Top Pick Feb 1/17. Down 42%.) It was as though the perfect storm had hit. Because they don't treat their pulses a certain way, they had some problems importing to India until they received the exemption. The company has diversified into the food and ingredients area more. Parts of the business are doing very well. He perceives this as more of a cyclical problem. They have an oversupply in a number of areas that have to work its way through the system, which could happen within the next 6 months to a year. At these prices, this stock could be fairly attractive, although it is a bit higher risk/reward.

agriculture
Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$20.440
Owned Owned
Yes

DON'T BUY
Agrium(AGU-T) 

December 13, 2017

Doesn't think you should get into this right now. He did own it, but when they announced that they were going to integrate with Potash (POT-T), that changed the complexion of the company quite a bit. Doesn't think there will be much in the way of a stock price change until it has been time-tested for a while.

chemicals

Doesn't think you should get into this right now. He did own it, but when they announced that they were going to integrate with Potash (POT-T), that changed the complexion of the company quite a bit. Doesn't think there will be much in the way of a stock price change until it has been time-tested for a while.

chemicals
Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$143.550
Owned Owned
No

BUY
Alibaba Group Holding(BABA-N) 

December 13, 2017

This is right in the heart of e-commerce alongside of Amazon (AMZN-Q). It really is a juggernaut, growing at a tremendous rate. The most recent quarter revenues were up 63% and earnings were up 65%. The Internet stocks have had a tremendous year, especially Internet retail as a whole. It’s one you could have a little piece of to participate in the very important structural theme, which is not slowing down at all.

This is right in the heart of e-commerce alongside of Amazon (AMZN-Q). It really is a juggernaut, growing at a tremendous rate. The most recent quarter revenues were up 63% and earnings were up 65%. The Internet stocks have had a tremendous year, especially Internet retail as a whole. It’s one you could have a little piece of to participate in the very important structural theme, which is not slowing down at all.

0
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$176.470
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

December 13, 2017

There are some structural challenges in wire line telecoms, which historically get tied to interest rates. We have seen the secular long-term low in interest rates in June 2016, and we are unlikely to revisit them. Expect that rates move higher from here. This is not the #1 company he would choose in the group. Prefers Telus (T-T).

telephone utilities

There are some structural challenges in wire line telecoms, which historically get tied to interest rates. We have seen the secular long-term low in interest rates in June 2016, and we are unlikely to revisit them. Expect that rates move higher from here. This is not the #1 company he would choose in the group. Prefers Telus (T-T).

telephone utilities
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$62.800
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
Blackstone Group LP(BX-N) 

December 13, 2017

This is really focused in private equity. He prefers to invest in companies that are in public securities. In 2000, when the stock market rolled over, investors slowly stopped investing in public markets and started making private equity investments because they weren't priced every day, and were not subject to the same kind of compliance and regulations that you were in public companies. In 2013, we began a new bull market in public market equities, so he would rather invest in companies that manage public market equities rather than private equities.

investment companies/funds

This is really focused in private equity. He prefers to invest in companies that are in public securities. In 2000, when the stock market rolled over, investors slowly stopped investing in public markets and started making private equity investments because they weren't priced every day, and were not subject to the same kind of compliance and regulations that you were in public companies. In 2013, we began a new bull market in public market equities, so he would rather invest in companies that manage public market equities rather than private equities.

investment companies/funds
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$31.990
Owned Owned
Unknown

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) The media group has been very tricky and is one he would avoid right now.

entertainment services

(Market Call Minute.) The media group has been very tricky and is one he would avoid right now.

entertainment services
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$11.630
Owned Owned
No

BUY
Cargojet Inc(CJT-T) 

December 13, 2017

He really likes the transport sector as a whole. This company is a great business moving cargo for Air Canada (AC-T). Technically, the stock just recently broke out after having consolidated back to October 2015.

Transportation & Environmental Services

He really likes the transport sector as a whole. This company is a great business moving cargo for Air Canada (AC-T). Technically, the stock just recently broke out after having consolidated back to October 2015.

Transportation & Environmental Services
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$55.900
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK
Comerica Inc(CMA-N) 

December 13, 2017

This is a $70 billion regional bank. Next year, the CCAR limit will rise up to $200 billion, so this bank will not have to go through that very expensive process. Compliance costs for them are coming down if deregulation hits. This is a big beneficiary of lower tax rates. There is improved commercial lending going on in the US and they benefit from that. 90% of their loans our floating rate loans. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts' price target is $83.)

banks

This is a $70 billion regional bank. Next year, the CCAR limit will rise up to $200 billion, so this bank will not have to go through that very expensive process. Compliance costs for them are coming down if deregulation hits. This is a big beneficiary of lower tax rates. There is improved commercial lending going on in the US and they benefit from that. 90% of their loans our floating rate loans. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts' price target is $83.)

banks
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$84.810
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY
Canadian Natural Rsrcs(CNQ-T) 

December 13, 2017

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T) for a longer outlook for gains? They are almost interchangeable. They are the 2 quality companies in the Canadian oil patch, and the 2 that have been able to purchase assets at good prices, while other companies were down. He owns both, and it is a coin toss as to which would do better in the next couple of years. He would be a buyer of both.

oil/gas

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T) for a longer outlook for gains? They are almost interchangeable. They are the 2 quality companies in the Canadian oil patch, and the 2 that have been able to purchase assets at good prices, while other companies were down. He owns both, and it is a coin toss as to which would do better in the next couple of years. He would be a buyer of both.

oil/gas
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$43.400
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Energy has been a sloppy sector this year, and this has not been one of the stronger holdings. He doesn't like this as an investment. However, it is under pressure with tax loss selling. If he were going to do something with it, he would probably get through year end and see how it begins to trade at the beginning of the year. There will be some bottom fishing at the beginning of the year with people looking for things that were under pressure from tax loss selling. The energy sector can improve a little here. Longer-term, he would be a seller of this.

oil/gas

Energy has been a sloppy sector this year, and this has not been one of the stronger holdings. He doesn't like this as an investment. However, it is under pressure with tax loss selling. If he were going to do something with it, he would probably get through year end and see how it begins to trade at the beginning of the year. There will be some bottom fishing at the beginning of the year with people looking for things that were under pressure from tax loss selling. The energy sector can improve a little here. Longer-term, he would be a seller of this.

oil/gas
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$8.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT

Thinks this is going to do fairly well in 2018. Over the last number of years, it’s managed to restructure its balance sheet. At one time they paid a totally unsustainable dividend. Even in the current market, they figure they can continue to grow cash flow, even at $55 West Texas intermediate pricing. It probably has more drilling opportunities and more land in good areas, then a lot of the competition. It could be worth taking a serious look at.

oil/gas

Thinks this is going to do fairly well in 2018. Over the last number of years, it’s managed to restructure its balance sheet. At one time they paid a totally unsustainable dividend. Even in the current market, they figure they can continue to grow cash flow, even at $55 West Texas intermediate pricing. It probably has more drilling opportunities and more land in good areas, then a lot of the competition. It could be worth taking a serious look at.

oil/gas
Michael Sprung

President, Sprung Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$8.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY
Credit Suisse Group(CS-N) 

December 13, 2017

He is very favourable on banks. He has been more focused in the US than in Europe, but money has been moving into the European market all year long. This was with the view that if the global economy is getting better, there is a little more leverage in the European markets. This bank is performing well. It broke out technically at $16. He believes we are in early stages of reflation around the world. This one is a great brand, and will participate.

Financial Services

He is very favourable on banks. He has been more focused in the US than in Europe, but money has been moving into the European market all year long. This was with the view that if the global economy is getting better, there is a little more leverage in the European markets. This bank is performing well. It broke out technically at $16. He believes we are in early stages of reflation around the world. This one is a great brand, and will participate.

Financial Services
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$17.510
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY
Cisco(CSCO-Q) 

December 13, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) The chart on this looks great and it is in the right theme. Capital spending will be the name of the game next year. This is one he would buy.

electrical/electronic

(Market Call Minute.) The chart on this looks great and it is in the right theme. Capital spending will be the name of the game next year. This is one he would buy.

electrical/electronic
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$38.150
Owned Owned
No

BUY
Descartes(DSG-T) 

December 13, 2017

This is in the logistics business. It has been a very strong performer over the last few years, but has come under pressure over the last few weeks, but pulled right back into the 150-day moving average. Technically it is still okay. He likes the long-term theme. If it broke the 150-day moving average, he would be gone. In the near term, it provides a pretty good entry point.

computer software/processing

This is in the logistics business. It has been a very strong performer over the last few years, but has come under pressure over the last few weeks, but pulled right back into the 150-day moving average. Technically it is still okay. He likes the long-term theme. If it broke the 150-day moving average, he would be gone. In the near term, it provides a pretty good entry point.

computer software/processing
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$36.270
Owned Owned
Unknown

PAST TOP PICK
DowDuPont Inc.(DWDP-N) 

December 13, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 14/17. Up 6%.) He bought this because it was going through this reorganization. They are putting the 2 companies together and then they are going to break them up into 3 pieces. With relatively low feed-cost stocks and an improving economy, the opportunity to grow is there.

chemicals

(A Top Pick Feb 14/17. Up 6%.) He bought this because it was going through this reorganization. They are putting the 2 companies together and then they are going to break them up into 3 pieces. With relatively low feed-cost stocks and an improving economy, the opportunity to grow is there.

chemicals
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$70.560
Owned Owned
Yes

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