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Signal Opinion Expert

2017-11-21

TOP PICK
Hoya Corporation (7741-JP)

The world’s low-cost producer of eyeglass lenses. Thinks this will benefit from the merger of Luxottica/Essilor merger, because he thinks the market share will be in play. They made them at very low cost in Thailand. The Thailand floods hit them, so they built the 2nd plant in the Philippines, an extremely low-cost place to make things. Very high-quality products made in a low-cost environment. This is also a monopoly producer of glass substrate for hard disks, and believes they dominate 2.5”. There are still 3.5” platters to be converted to glass, which is a huge opportunity. Dividend yield of 1.3%. (Analysts’ price target is ¥6,530.)

Healthcare
David Fingold

VP and Portfolio Manager, Dynamic Funds

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-21

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Investing. If he doesn’t like the look of a sector, he stays out of it. There used to be the phenomena where people thought that if you picked the best house on a bad block, you’d be okay. For most of his career, that was true, but it is becoming less and less of an appropriate way of looking at things. Everybody remembers the banks and insurance companies having a difficult time during the global financial crisis. It created a tremendous opportunity within real estate, but he noticed his real estate companies were getting hurt on days when other financials were getting hurt, then he realized real estate was part of the financials. Today credit spreads are very narrow, the economy is growing very nicely, so if looking for an underperformer in an outperforming sector, is the market telling you that it is going to do poorly the next time the market corrects? Also, a lot of that is incredibly time sensitive. To him, 3-5 years is what counts. 

David Fingold

VP and Portfolio Manager, Dynamic Funds

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-11-21

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market. North American equity markets made new all-time highs in 2013, the 1st time since the 90s. We rallied 2 years into 2015 and corrected globally. Since February 2016, the market has been slowly making its way higher. We had begun a long reflation of equities in 2016. We have a synchronized growth going on globally, and equities are really an attractive asset class when you have the beginnings of reflation. It can go on for a long time. The hardest thing in a bull market is to stay in your winning positions. Everybody worries, which is good. Looking at the 3 years that came after the first major correction in a bull market of the 50s, there was a rally for 3 years with no volatility. In the rally after the first major correction in 1984 for the 80s and 90s bull market, you had 3 years with no major correction. Since February 2016, we’ve been getting 3%-4% corrections. Another correction is not coming, as there are people with cash sitting waiting for it. In the next 12 months you are going to see a real correction, and then you’ll probably get another 3-4 years of good markets. Regarding cyclicals, flows out of bonds has barely begun. (They’ve been flowing into bonds for over 40 years.) It is relatively early. US banks are trading at 1X BV, and they traded at 2X-3X in the past, and BV is growing.

David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-11-21

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Price to Book ratio? The value you pay for an asset in the event there was a problem. When looking at US banks trading at 1X or 1.5X BV, you are not paying that much for the assets you are getting.

David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-11-21

BUY
Apple (AAPL-Q)

An inexpensive company. Filled with cash, but has lots of interesting catalysts. Their recent iPhone 10 is really interesting, as it gives them the only true integrated platform for augmented reality, which could turn out to be much bigger than people think. Margins are strong when looking at services, and is growing very rapidly.

electrical/electronic
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $173.140
Owned: Yes

2017-11-21

BUY
Applied Materials (AMAT-Q)

There are 4 key structural themes in technology. Cloud-based computing, software as a service, the Internet of Things. This makes equipment that makes semiconductors. Estimates are that the average house will have 17 connected devices over the next 3 years. From early to the middle of October, the market started to consolidate. While the percentage of stocks in uptrends didn’t deteriorate, it went from 78% of stocks with positive weekly price momentum down to 30%. In the last 3 days, the leadership groups have re-accelerated, broke out and made new highs. This company fits right into that camp.

electrical/electronic
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $58.800
Owned: Yes

2017-11-21

COMMENT
Amazon.com (AMZN-Q)

It’s not too late to get into this. As long as we are in a decent market and as long as this continues to beat estimates, it should continue to participate. The leader in a Bull market tends to be a leader to the very end. You are likely to see the weaklings roll over first. Right now, breadth is expanding and weaklings are not rolling over. Stay in the leading stock as they have a tremendous advantage.

specialty stores
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $1139.490
Owned: Unknown

2017-11-21

PAST TOP PICK
Bank of America (BAC-N)

(A Top Pick Dec 13/16. Up 20%.) We are still very early in a revaluation of US banks. Trading at 1X Book. BV is growing, so there could be an expansion of the multiple of BV. Tax reform would be good for this bank. 85% of its revenues come from the US.

banks
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $26.730
Owned: Yes

2017-11-21

TOP PICK
Bank of America (BAC-N)

When in a strong market and there is clear leadership, there is no reason to jump from one boxcar to another. If the things causing structural change are continuing to strengthen, that is a good reason to stay in position. There are 4 key things that are going to move this higher. 1.) Rising interest rates. 2.) Deregulation. 3.) Cost cutting. (Have cut $10 billion of expenses since 2010.) 4.) Economic growth is accelerating, which helps grow business. Raised their dividend 60% last year, and it is going to increase again this year. Financials can be revalued, multiples can expand and earnings can get better, for 5 to 7 years. Dividend yield of 1.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $29.)

banks
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $26.730
Owned: Yes

2017-11-21

PAST TOP PICK
Belimo Holding AG (BEAN-SW)

(A Top Pick March 27/17. Up 33%.) Makes intelligent building controls. If you install their controls on a commercial building, the energy savings pays back the cost and under 12 months.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
David Fingold

VP and Portfolio Manager, Dynamic Funds

Price: $0.000
Owned: Yes

2017-11-21

COMMENT
Baytex Energy Corp (BTE-T)

Energy is tough. When it rolled over in 2014, there was a 66% decline. At $26 a barrel, oil reversed and there was a one-year rally, quite similar to what happens when a bubble bursts. The difficulty is that the industry has changed. When the price goes up, production can come on pretty quickly with fracing. Look at these as trades, not some structural long-term bull market. If you are going to invest in oil, you want to buy one that has been able to get better while everybody else has been struggling. The 150-day moving average on this one is falling. He would pick a point below the price it is trading at now, such as $3.50, and use that as a Stop/Loss.

oil/gas
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $3.820
Owned: No

2017-11-21

BUY
China Technology Gugenheim (CQQQ-N)

One of his big themes has been China. The conception is that the market opportunity is pretty big. As a piece of a portfolio, he sees no reason why you can’t have a piece of this.

E.T.F.'s
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $66.850
Owned: No

2017-11-21

DON'T BUY
Credit Suisse Group (CS-N)

This has issues on multiple levels. They’ve had to raise capital twice in the last 12-18 months. He has a real issue with financial institutions where there is a question about capital. Looking at their lines of business, they are particularly concentrated in fixed income, relative to their peers. Not sure of being a huge fan of the high-yield area. The RNBS (mortgage-backed bonds?) space needs a very particular catalyst. RNBS is well below normal because of the function of Dodd Frank requiring banks to have skin in the game when they issue mortgages.

Financial Services
David Fingold

VP and Portfolio Manager, Dynamic Funds

Price: $16.400
Owned: Unknown

2017-11-21

COMMENT
Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T)

An equity which has a tendency to do well when resource stocks in Canada are not. Has done well because they it is perhaps the 1 out of 10 Canadian companies which is actually a good company. It’s always on his Watch List. They are producing very attractive returns and in some areas, are best in class.

Consumer Products
David Fingold

VP and Portfolio Manager, Dynamic Funds

Price: $158.700
Owned: Unknown

2017-11-21

BUY on WEAKNESS
Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T)

One that got away from him. He likes companies that are good and getting better, and this is one of them. The price chart seems to gap higher about every 3 months. He’s been very cautious on retail, but this has been a really good foil against the group. It tends to rally around the earnings period and then consolidates after. In the short run, it’s a little extended and a little stretched away from the 50-day moving average, so there is a little risk. A good company. As a long-term hold, this is good.

Consumer Products
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Management

Price: $158.700
Owned: No

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