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Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether GLD-N, FM-N, INDA-US, AC-T, XIU-T, HXT-T, GDX-N, ZBK-T, ZUB-T, TQQQ-Q, ZQQ-T, EMLC-N, ZLC-T, ZIC-T, USO-N, ZEB-T, ZWB-T, ZWU-T, SPY-N, VXX-N are stocks to buy or sell.

N/A

Educational Segment. (A Commentary)

02/04/2020
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Educational Segment. Market. He suggested last week that the rally was more about a rebalance between bonds and stocks on a quarterly basis. That is now clearly what it was. Part of the legislation in the US says that any corporations that are going to need help from the government are going to have a restriction on share buy backs or dividend issuing until the loan is paid off. He showed a chart of expected dividends from the S&P and how three months ago they would go up steadily. Now they will take a dip and then climb back to what they are now in about a decade. His sleep at night portfolio (ZZZD-T) sank with others until about a week ago and then rose and has lost less than his other comparisons YTD.
Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
N/A
Unknown
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COMMENT

iPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-Term(VXX-N)

02/04/2020
iPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-Term

Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$47.360
Unknown
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COMMENT

SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY-N)

02/04/2020
SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$251.830
Unknown
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WATCH

BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF(ZWU-T)

02/04/2020
BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF
There is more volatility to come. The government of Canada wants to minimize the energy industry. There is a serious push for climate change. You'll get a lot more support in the US than in Canada, but you have to consider the tax implications if it is a cash account instead of a registered account. The current situation will require cuts from every nation.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$10.790
Unknown
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COMMENT

BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF(ZWB-T)

02/04/2020
BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF

ZWB-T vs. ZEB-T. If your view on the banks is sideways to down a little bit, then ZWB-T is the better holding but if you are bullish on the banks then you don’t want the covered calls. He prefers ZEB-T right now because he wants all the price capture upside when the banks recover.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$13.550
Unknown
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COMMENT

BMO EQUAL WEIGHT BANKS INDEX ETF(ZEB-T)

02/04/2020
BMO EQUAL WEIGHT BANKS INDEX ETF

ZWB-T vs. ZEB-T. If your view on the banks is sideways to down a little bit, then ZWB-T is the better holding but if you are bullish on the banks then you don’t want the covered calls. He prefers ZEB-T right now because he wants all the price capture upside when the banks recover.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$21.620
Unknown
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COMMENT

EFTs Selling Holdings. (A Commentary)

02/04/2020
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
EFTs Selling Holdings. 95% of units bought and sold of an ETF involve one unit holder selling to another. Ultimately when the market maker is accumulating positions and does not want to hold them, they are forced to sell them. Other than this 5% of transactions, there is no impact on the underlying shares.
Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
N/A
Unknown
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DON'T BUY

U.S. Oil Fund E.T.F.(USO-N)

02/04/2020
U.S. Oil Fund E.T.F.
The first oil futures contract today (the front month) is trading below the back month contract, which is 'contango'. The opposite case is 'backwardation'. Inside the ETF they own the front month and then on the transition day, about a week before, they sell the front month and buy the back month. If the front month is lower than the back month and the price of oil does not rise in the second month then you will lose that forward carry. If you don't understand these mechanics then you are at a serious disadvantage with this product.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$5.110
Unknown
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COMMENT

BMO Mid-Term US IG Corp Bond Index(ZIC-T)

02/04/2020
BMO Mid-Term US IG Corp Bond Index
ZLC-T & ZIC-T. You have a little bit of credit risk in corporate. When you want safety the best bet is government, not corporate as you get exposure to corporate earnings. Do you want it for the yield or for the protection? Don't sell either one at the moment.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$19.930
Unknown
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COMMENT

BMO Long Corporate Bond ETF(ZLC-T)

02/04/2020
BMO Long Corporate Bond ETF
ZLC-T & ZIC-T. You have a little bit of credit risk in corporate. When you want safety the best bet is government, not corporate as you get exposure to corporate earnings. Do you want it for the yield or for the protection? Don't sell either one at the moment.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$17.290
Unknown
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COMMENT

Buffered ETFs – It seems they got dragged down with everything else. (A Commentary)

02/04/2020
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Buffered ETFs – It seems they got dragged down with everything else. Go to the innovator website to see their videos. You are long the underlying, and then it buys a put and pays for it with a put at a lower strike and then a call at an upper strike. It is done at a zero cost to the ETF. The protection plays out over an entire calendar year. During an aggressive sell-off, you get a little short volatility. At the end of the year, if the market is within the range of buffered support you will not lose any money, but if it is lower like it is now, then you will have a loss. He likes the strategy and he uses them in private portfolios.
Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
N/A
Owned
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PARTIAL BUY

VanEck Vectors J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF(EMLC-N)

02/04/2020
VanEck Vectors J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF
It is a basket of emerging market countries including some challenged ones. We are going through a shock period now. They are government bonds trading in the local currencies so you have interest rate risk as well as currency risk. He has been adding to them over the last year and a half. You have to wait until the strength gets back into the emerging currencies. You get paid a good yield and the volatility is way less than emerging market volatility.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$27.550
Owned
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DON'T BUY

Japanese tech gaming companies. (A Commentary)

02/04/2020
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Japanese tech gaming companies. He has not looked through it nor through the sector because it does not appeal to him to invest in longer term. There has been a lot of speculation on companies that benefit from people staying at home more. He can't tell you whether these companies in Japan are better than those here.
Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
N/A
No
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COMMENT

BMO NASDAQ 100 HEDGED TO CAD INDEX ETF(ZQQ-T)

02/04/2020
BMO NASDAQ 100 HEDGED TO CAD INDEX ETF

ZQQ-T vs. TQQQ-N. The question is if you buy it with a currency hedge or the US version. If you are holding for the next few years, the Canadian dollar will be stronger down the road. He would prefer the ZQQ-T version but today is not the day to buy. In the next market decline he thinks some of the tech stocks will get hit.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
$55.190
Unknown
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COMMENT

ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ-Q)

02/04/2020
ProShares UltraPro QQQ

ZQQ-T vs. TQQQ-N. The question is if you buy it with a currency hedge or the US version. If you are holding for the next few years, the Canadian dollar will be stronger down the road. He would prefer the ZQQ-T version but today is not the day to buy. In the next market decline he thinks some of the tech stocks will get hit.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
N/A
Unknown
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