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The key theme is the apathy towards oil stocks here and around the world. Oil prices rally one day by 4%, but the stock climb only 1%. But oil falls 6-8% on a macro headline or Trump tweet. The volatilty is soul-sucking. The oil price is up 22% this year, but oil stocks are flat or down 20-40%. A huge disconnect. Based on this disparity, oil stocks are trading all their lowest levels ever. Many oil stocks are trading at a 20-30% discount to a company's liquidation value. How did we get here? ESG concerns, capital flight and Trudeau won't build pipelines. Bottom line: there are no buyers of oil stocks. However, the pressure on oil companies to use their free cash flow (15-30%) is growing to buyback shares to fill this vacuum. He is championing this to all Canadian oil companies. That would jolt this coma. We are in uncharted waters with oil stocks. These oil companies are, in fact, more profitable today than when oil was at $75, because the companies have gotten leaner and more profitable. There is a massive disconnect between this reality and investor perception. The situation is horrible, frustrating. Inevitably (he doesn't know when), money will flow back into this sector, as history tells us. One positive is pipeline optimization, which increases capacity by 100,000s of barrels a day. The opportunity is there and eventually a catalyst will come to unlock this value. Meanwhile, oil investors must endure volatility.

Will it rebound 40% this year? Canadian institutional buyers have shunned this; US hedge funds prefer it. They recently bought Newfield--ECA is know for its technical expertise and will find cost efficiencies in a poorly run company. They are confident they have squeezed out $1 million savings per well, and should have 30-40 wells in production to show the market that they have seriously improved production. They report July 31.

In this environment, there's no reason to invest in small-cap energy stocks. No market for it. Oil investors buy only the biggest companies and consider mid- and small-caps too risky. The sector would have to rally a lot to change this flow.

WCP is trading at a high 18% free cash flow. He's advocated to the CEO to do share buybacks. They check off all the boxes. They pay a healthy, sustainable yield of 8%. He likes it and owns a fair bit. In Calgary, oil companies are widely talking about what to do with their free cash flow, perhaps buyback shares.

The weighting of energy on the TSX from the low-30s% to 18% and SU makes up a big part of that 18%. SU has been the go-to Canadian oil stock. You can make money on SU, but there are less risky stocks out there.

Why buy a highly levered nat gas stock that may have contravened debt covenants? You're not being paid for that level or risk. There's no reason to own this.

The CEO believes their 9.6% yield is sustainable. They will cut capex and defer growth to protect the balance sheet. So, the yield is safe, but don't expect growth.

(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 40%) They need to pay down debt. They trade at a 37% free cash flow yield. It's the biggest name in his fund. Their biggest knock is their balance sheet, 4x debt-to-cash flow. They should NOT be buying back stocks, but instead pay down debt. He expects them to arrive at an industry level of 2-2.5x cash-to-debt flow in two years, and by then could pay a 35% dividend or privatize three years after that point. A high-quality name. Through pipelines and rails, next year they can ship 66% of their oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. He expects a killer quarter coming up.

(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 58%) It remains a core holding, but it's fallen off the radar of investors. Investors aren't buying Canadian oil. Trades at 30% free cash flow yield. He expects 2x debt-to-cash flow in the second half of 2019. By then, they should heavily buyback shares.

Bills C-48 and C-69 and the future of Canadian pipelines Bill C-48 would've impacted only Northern Gateway, which was dead anyway, and so doesn't impact the Transmountain pipeline. Bill C-48 is another question that he's throroughly researched. He met with Enbridge and the upshot was that they feel they can never build another pipeline after this bill because they'd have to spend $500 million-$1 billion of shareholders money just to determine whether they can build or not. Currently and in the neart future, Transcanada and Enbridge can move 400,000 more barrels per day not by building new pipelines, but making existing ones more efficient. Crude by rail is the most expensive and most dangerous method to move oil, but we are pressured by environmental groups. Yes, investors are frustrated, but oil stocks are already discounted for the worst. Two scenarios emerge: a positive catalyst triggers international money to flow back into oil, or if we don't then oil stocks can turn into share buyback machines.