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Today, Brian Madden commented about whether MFC-T, TD-T, NTR-T, DOO-T, SU-T, CNR-T, OTEX-T, BAM.A-T, L-T, PXT-T, DOL-T, IFC-T, CTC-T, PWF-T, POW-T, IPL-T, SHOP-T, QSR-T are stocks to buy or sell.

COMMENT
We're locked in a tug of war between a slowing economy and expectations for lower interest rates. US Fed Chair Powell meets with the Senate this week. Canadian oil stocks aren't attracting investors, because there is too much product that can't get out. Yes, some oil stocks are paying a high yield, but these may be too good to be true and unsustainable.
Unknown
BUY
It's a secular growth business with organic growth driven by same-store sales growth led by Popeye's and Burger King. Tim Horton's is accelerating after a tough 2018. They're expanding in Canada and abroad, namely Popeye's and Burger King. Third, they grow by acquisitions, backed by 3G Capital. They are good operators. It pays a 3% dividend and are buying back stock.
food services
PARTIAL SELL
Shopify Inc.

Could someone like Amazon take it over? Take some money off the table if you've held this for a while. He sold some shares a year ago, but continues to blaze higher. But its valuation is in nosebleed territory. He doubts that the lead shareholder will allow SHOP to be sold. Amazon is a candidate, possibly, but he doesn't feel it will happen.

0
BUY
Inter Pipeline
Good for a retiree needing income? He sold his stake a few quarters ago. It's a consistent dividend payer and the yield is safe. Yes, it's good for retirees, but there is better share price growth elsewhere. Their new propane facility should add $600 million to EBITDA profit when it comes online at the end of 2021 or 2022.
oil pipelines
DON'T BUY
Power Corp

POW vs. PWF POW has better liquidity so institutional investors prefer it. For growth, though, these are plays on life insurance. The PWF yield is over 6% and tantalizing. They likely won't cut the dividend, but probably will pause dividend growth. There are better stocks in asset management or insurance. He wouldn't buy either for capital appreciation.

mngmnt / diversified
DON'T BUY

POW vs. PWF POW has better liquidity so institutional investors prefer it. For growth, though, these are plays on life insurance. The PWF yield is over 6% and tantalizing. They likely won't cut the dividend, but probably will pause dividend growth. There are better stocks in asset management or insurance. He wouldn't buy either for capital appreciation.

finance / leasing
SELL

Facing a 20% loss. Sell? It's missed earnings in 5 of the last 7 quarters, and it's exposed to the consumer discretionary space, which is vulnerable in a downturn. Also, it's vulnerable to Amazon. Their chart is making lower highs and lows as the TSX is moving the opposite direction. It isn't cheap, trading at 2.4x book value vs. 1.7x historic average. Also, past major downturns fell 60%.

specialty stores
BUY
Intact Financial
It's a growth story with a lower payout ratio than the larger life insurance companies. It's different from the lifecos, because they are the biggest Canadian property and casualty insurer. They've enjoyed significant capital appreciation. Their costs are lower than their peers and they have a strong balance sheet, allowing them to make acquisitions. They recently bought an American company. An excellent CEO. This will continue to grow.
insurance
BUY
Dollarama Inc.
He just bought it last month. It pulled back last year, but have recovered. They enjoy high returns on capital and rapid growth, more than most retailers. They're opening new stores. They're exercised their option to buy Dollar City in Latin America, virgin territory with no competitors in this space; this operation will grow for years to come.
Consumer Products
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Down 7%) They did a failed assets sale last year at the wrong time when oil markets peaked then slid. They received lousy bids. It's still a great growth story with a good drill program. They're operating in Colombia, so they get international pricing, not low Canadian. They are buying back a lot of shares. He's happy holding this for the long term.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
Loblaw Companies Ltd
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 25%) A good return, but complicated, because it involved a spin-off of a REIT. He sold it at profit at $66 in April when the shares looked fully valued.
food stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 19%) A core holding for many years. They dominate in the alternate real asset space, leading in private equity in real estate, renewable energy and infrastructure--businesses that are less efficient with higher returns. They recently bought Oaktree, a California credit manager. They are very well managed by peoeple who heavily own shares.
management / diversified
COMMENT
TRST has been punished this week for violating Heath Canada rules He doesn't own cannabis. The industry is unsettled, unclear where the value will be created and the regulations keep evolving. There's also the issue of corporate governance--who's on the board? He's seen some shady characters on the board of some cannabis companies (not TRST). Also, valuations are astronomical.
Unknown
BUY
Open Text

Their partnership with Google and Mastercard He's followed this many years and once owned it. Their partnership with Google is excellent; Google is number three in the cloud space. This partnership may accelerate OTEX's organic growth which has traditionally been tepid and done through acqusitions. This trades at 14x earnings when the software space is much higher. He likes OTEX.

computer software / processing
HOLD
An excellent business that creates massive value over time. In a downturn, rails will suffer but not as bad as other industrials like, say, automakers. This is the best North American operator with fine assets. Bill Gates' foundation holds 14%, and is the biggest shareholder.
Transportation