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May 13, 2019
Market. The world expected a US/China deal and it was priced in. Now you have to cut about a third or a half of the rally since December. There is some support around 2810 on the S&P but not a lot of support below that. There is more risk than reward in the markets here. There is no potential deal here in the next days or weeks in his mind. Intellectual property rights are going to be the most difficult issue in the negotiations. The airline industry is a capital intensive industry that does not make a lot of money. WestJet is cheap relative to a lot of other players in the sector. A corporate raider is trying to come in to fix things up.
Market. The world expected a US/China deal and it was priced in. Now you have to cut about a third or a half of the rally since December. There is some support around 2810 on the S&P but not a lot of support below that. There is more risk than reward in the markets here. There is no potential deal here in the next days or weeks in his mind. Intellectual property rights are going to be the most difficult issue in the negotiations. The airline industry is a capital intensive industry that does not make a lot of money. WestJet is cheap relative to a lot of other players in the sector. A corporate raider is trying to come in to fix things up.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 13, 2019
BitCoin's future. He thinks it is worth basically zero. You can trade it. You can speculate on it. You can't invest in it, however. One of the solutions in the world to debt is to move to entirely electronic currency. There cannot be independent currencies. Governments will legislate them away. It is an asset and he has no issue with buying it, but it has no value.
BitCoin's future. He thinks it is worth basically zero. You can trade it. You can speculate on it. You can't invest in it, however. One of the solutions in the world to debt is to move to entirely electronic currency. There cannot be independent currencies. Governments will legislate them away. It is an asset and he has no issue with buying it, but it has no value.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
May 13, 2019
Educational Segment. The income statement looks good but the balance sheet does not. There is $7 trillion dollars of corporate debt rated as triple B. 2000 companies. In the next economic downturn, a huge portion of the capital in triple B will move to double B. Look at HYG-N, the high yield bond ETF. The spread over government bonds is expanding quickly. If you are in high yield bonds, beware. This is the biggest risk he has ever seen in them.
Educational Segment. The income statement looks good but the balance sheet does not. There is $7 trillion dollars of corporate debt rated as triple B. 2000 companies. In the next economic downturn, a huge portion of the capital in triple B will move to double B. Look at HYG-N, the high yield bond ETF. The spread over government bonds is expanding quickly. If you are in high yield bonds, beware. This is the biggest risk he has ever seen in them.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
May 13, 2019
Market. There is a lot of commotion in the markets right now. Beware of headline risk. Separate the short term headlines from the long term story about China. The domestic policy in China is more important than trade wars. China started reflating in the middle of last year and it is now showing in the data. The more trade wars flare up, the more China stimulates. It is very positive. China is moving from an export-led economy to a consumer led economy. Investors should not get sideswiped by the trade wars. China should be speeding up in the coming months. The Chinese consumer is the biggest macro story of our time.
Market. There is a lot of commotion in the markets right now. Beware of headline risk. Separate the short term headlines from the long term story about China. The domestic policy in China is more important than trade wars. China started reflating in the middle of last year and it is now showing in the data. The more trade wars flare up, the more China stimulates. It is very positive. China is moving from an export-led economy to a consumer led economy. Investors should not get sideswiped by the trade wars. China should be speeding up in the coming months. The Chinese consumer is the biggest macro story of our time.
Tyler Mordy
President & CIO, Forstrong Global Asset Management
N/A
N/A
May 13, 2019
Effect of a Huawei embargo by Canada? He thinks external dynamics are less important to China than domestic dynamics. Chinese tech companies are insulated from the rest of the world because they have such robust domestic demand.
Effect of a Huawei embargo by Canada? He thinks external dynamics are less important to China than domestic dynamics. Chinese tech companies are insulated from the rest of the world because they have such robust domestic demand.
Tyler Mordy
President & CIO, Forstrong Global Asset Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 13, 2019
Canadian REITs. REITs in general are good in the portfolio but he would not go 'gaga' on them. Canada has had inappropriately low monetary policy. In general Canadian real estate is very expensive. It is an okay building block because of the income potential. XRE-T groups the Canadian REITs. But there are better opportunities around the world.
Canadian REITs. REITs in general are good in the portfolio but he would not go 'gaga' on them. Canada has had inappropriately low monetary policy. In general Canadian real estate is very expensive. It is an okay building block because of the income potential. XRE-T groups the Canadian REITs. But there are better opportunities around the world.
Tyler Mordy
President & CIO, Forstrong Global Asset Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 13, 2019
Markets. He's a longer term investor. The downturn is not a positive, but it's not going to be forever. Tariffs are only a 2.5% hit to US consumers and businesses. Won't drive the economy into a deep recession. Record low unemployment in the US. We don't buy everything from China.
Markets. He's a longer term investor. The downturn is not a positive, but it's not going to be forever. Tariffs are only a 2.5% hit to US consumers and businesses. Won't drive the economy into a deep recession. Record low unemployment in the US. We don't buy everything from China.
John O'Connell, CFA
Chairman and CEO, Davis Rea