Market Outlook. Always optimistic on oil, he still thinks the global balance is still tight. He is becoming more bullish this past week as there is concern of growing Iranian constraints. Exports could fall by 700,000 bpd -- this could push OPEC to peak capacity. With no safety cushion, issues in Libya, Venezuela and others could keep markets very tight. He expects Alberta curtailment to last into 2020. Valuations are at their lowest levels in his 16 years in the business. Free cash-flow can be used by companies to buyback large quantities of shares. You could see companies privatize themselves. His base outlook is $60 WTI and $17.50 WTS differentials. The market is simply not operating efficiently right now. A great time to buy.
A big condensate company that has struggled to execute. The market is waiting for them to deleverage. He would not buy them today. If you are bullish condensate, he would Nuvista or Kelt.
A mid-cap oil producer. They have struggled because they are too small -- energy funds are trading the big boys. Yield 7.0% and the payout ratio is fine. He would not buy it -- there are better options out there.
They have 40% exposure offshore. Their acquisition of Spartan has not yet taken hold. It trades on a premium multiple and it does not have the portfolio or cash flow yield he is looking for. The payout ratio is 90%. Yield 7%
They have done a good job paying down debt. Free cash-flow is being used to buy back shares -- he likes that. He favours Canadian mid-caps or US Permian producers.
Peyto vs Torc. He is not fond of Peyto -- production is flat and the balance sheet is not great. They also focus on natural gas -- an area he sees little opportunity in that commodity. Torc is a well-run oil producer, with a solid management team. He clearly would prefer Torc.
Peyto vs Torc. He is not fond of Peyto -- production is flat and the balance sheet is not great. They also focus on natural gas -- an area he sees little opportunity in that commodity. Torc is a well-run oil producer, with a solid management team. He clearly would prefer Torc.
A small-cap heavy oil producer that has done well. For a large institutional buyer, there is just not enough liquidity. They did increase the dividend and they are buying back stock. Yield 5.8%
Issues in Russia? There is a contamination issue with their oil in Russia. He thinks it will be resolved. They are growing production and buying back stock out of free cash-flow -- he likes that. A well run company, that he took profit with a while ago. He would continue to hold it if you do, but he sees better opportunity for new money.
ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 24%) They are in the Permian, where production is constrained, but improving. The new CEO is strong and the company is trading at 4 times cash flow. He expects to see a large M&A wave to drive up trading multiples to 7 times cash flow, making companies like PE-N seem relatively cheap.
(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 16%) They are predominately in the Permian and Bakken areas. They have about 40 years of inventory. Management is focused on paying down debt.
(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 12%) He is surprised it is not getting more favour than it is. He is seeing good exposure to the Duvernay and Eagleford plays. It is trading at a 25% free cash-flow yield. He thinks they could even privatize themselves by buying back their shares.
It is an ultra-high level quality company that has been impacted by its exposure to natural gas production. It only trades at 3-4 times cash flow, when it used to trade at 8 times. The lack of trading liquidity in the space is holding back valuations. The only knock is that they are outspending cash flow this year. A short term issue. A solid name.