N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Market. He wanted to wear a red gold shirt! Everybody he golfed with over the last 6 years said Tiger would not come back. The US banks have had a choppy set of results. JPM-N had positive results. GS-N had some issues on the trading side. We are very late on the cycle. You don’t want to be overweight on the banks. Financial services don’t do well if the next phase of the cycle is slow down and eventual recession. The only question is when, but you won’t see it in the data. When volatility is up, banks should be doing better, but it means that GS-N may have made some bad bets.
Unknown
BUY
It's an enhanced money market fund. The coupon distribution is actually higher than the yield to maturity so the price comes down. The price stabilized and he started buying it. There are no capital gains, however.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
REITs in Canada. The yield is attractive but they are risky at the moment. When we go into a slow down, real estate is one of the last sectors to be hit. Money loves the yield. But ultimately when the economy turns down and rents are at risk, these turn down.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Bonds. VAB-T, ZAG-T, XBB-T. There is great diversification but you have a lot of credit. He would buy a broad government bond ETF at this point.
Unknown
WEAK BUY
ZWA-T vs. ZWS-T. ZWA-T is the Dow 30 with a covered call overlay. ZWS-T is a broader ETF with 50 holdings, much more diversified and just the DOW index and it also has a covered call overlay. He would prefer ZWS-T. He is looking at buying a lot more of this one.
0
WEAK BUY
ZWA-T vs. ZWS-T. ZWA-T is the Dow 30 with a covered call overlay. ZWS-T is a broader ETF with 50 holdings, much more diversified and just the DOW index and it also has a covered call overlay. He would prefer ZWS-T. He is looking at buying a lot more of this one.
E.T.F.'s
N/A
Increase in Gasoline prices. The price is in US$ so as the Canadian dollar weakens, we buy oil at a higher rate. If we were able to get all our gas from Canadian oil, we would have carbon taxes etc.
Unknown
WEAK BUY
Visa Inc.
Look back 25 years or more. It went from $150 to $120 approximately late last year. In '08 it went from $25 to $12 in the recession. He thinks it should be in most portfolios. They would go down as much as the broad markets but it will likely outperform in the long run.
other services
N/A
Educational Segment. Retirement ages. We have this massive unfunded liability. The liability is that as we age, the government owes benefits. If the US does not change what they promise, by about 2035, they will have to borrow money just to pay the interest on their debt. Canada is much better off than this, we have the Canada Pension Plan. But now we have many less people in a working age range, vs. past the retirement age, than when the program was created.
Unknown
N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Market. PMIs around the world have been down for 10 straight months, but have now turned. He thinks people will be quite surprised in earnings season. Base metals are one group that has showed strength, along with energy, and technology; and China is looking good. The low was at the end of December. Base metals are a good proxy for global growth. The US dollar is rolling over and this benefits the debt of emerging economies. As long as the US dollar keeps going down it means the pro-global growth trade is in effect.
Unknown
HOLD
BlackBerry
It has shown a propensity to go up but is stuck sideways. There is resistance about $12.75. We did get through $12, though. It should not go straight up as it chews threw previous highs to just above $16.
electrical / electronic
WATCH
Twitter, Inc
We have some resistance where we are now ($36). If it gets through it will move quickly.
0
DON'T BUY
The next interesting place is about $112 and then $120. There have been better places to put your money. He prefers other financials than banks, where you will be stuck in a band.
banks
HOLD
Netflix Inc.
They took a bit of a hit as DIS-N comes on stream. They have a huge leg up on Disney however and NFLX-Q has pretty big expansion plans in place. The market wants to hold in around the 200 day moving average. Until we break through $338 there is not too much to worry about. It is just starting to show some weakness relative to the S&P. Short term, some indicators are getting over sold so we may see an upturn.
Technology
HOLD
It has a seasonality that kicked in just after the new year. It is probably going to run into resistance at $92 even if seasonality gets extended. If we see the US$ weaken further we will probably see the seasonality extend.
E.T.F.'s