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April 11, 2019
Market. The announcement on Brexit that it is kicked out to the end of the year and then there are constructive comments on the US / China trade relations, which are the two biggest clouds over markets. The big test now is what the earnings will look like. Next week we will know if the market was overextended when it went down in December. We have to see decent earnings for markets to continue going up. Guidance is key and the markets might be somewhat forgiving. JPM-N is not performing as well as the US market. He has fully exited the US banks. He sees the earnings environment tougher because of flattening yield curve. Interest rates have collapsed over the last three months that that is not good for banks. Canadian banks such as CM-T could be down 10% because of slowing credit growth in Canada. You have to time it right in getting out of this trade.
Market. The announcement on Brexit that it is kicked out to the end of the year and then there are constructive comments on the US / China trade relations, which are the two biggest clouds over markets. The big test now is what the earnings will look like. Next week we will know if the market was overextended when it went down in December. We have to see decent earnings for markets to continue going up. Guidance is key and the markets might be somewhat forgiving. JPM-N is not performing as well as the US market. He has fully exited the US banks. He sees the earnings environment tougher because of flattening yield curve. Interest rates have collapsed over the last three months that that is not good for banks. Canadian banks such as CM-T could be down 10% because of slowing credit growth in Canada. You have to time it right in getting out of this trade.
Bryden Teich
Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 11, 2019
Utilities. Pure plays like FTS-T have performed very well because interest rates have come down so much. You get a pretty stable yield but he has focused on energy utility pipelines because there is better value. ALA-T is on his list to consider and he would look at it.
Utilities. Pure plays like FTS-T have performed very well because interest rates have come down so much. You get a pretty stable yield but he has focused on energy utility pipelines because there is better value. ALA-T is on his list to consider and he would look at it.
Bryden Teich
Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 11, 2019
What a difference 90 days makes. Boxing Day was despair, then it radically pivoted in January as the Fed went from hawkish to neutral. Beware that this can't last. Don't be carried away by fear or greed. The recovery has taken him by surprise. Remember than markets bottom with a W pattern not a V, so the market will retest its lows before finally making a once-and-for-all recovery. This cycle is long in the tooth, but market cycles don't run on a clock. There could be a soft landing like the late-1990's and could avoid an abrupt end. He's balanced between US and Canadian stocks.
What a difference 90 days makes. Boxing Day was despair, then it radically pivoted in January as the Fed went from hawkish to neutral. Beware that this can't last. Don't be carried away by fear or greed. The recovery has taken him by surprise. Remember than markets bottom with a W pattern not a V, so the market will retest its lows before finally making a once-and-for-all recovery. This cycle is long in the tooth, but market cycles don't run on a clock. There could be a soft landing like the late-1990's and could avoid an abrupt end. He's balanced between US and Canadian stocks.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council