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COMMENT
COMMENT
April 10, 2019
Market Outlook Operating earnings for the S&P500 companies have been revised down for each of the last four quarters. This means analyst estimates are falling looking forward over time. It does not mean the end of the world. He would say the market is mixed with Brexit, being offset by better trade issues with China. He would build your portfolio from a place of conservatism. He is about 55% equities. He likes global medical devices and US software and mobile payments. He also thinks emerging markets are okay. The Fed Reserve is not full fledged dove, so he would be cautious.
Market Outlook Operating earnings for the S&P500 companies have been revised down for each of the last four quarters. This means analyst estimates are falling looking forward over time. It does not mean the end of the world. He would say the market is mixed with Brexit, being offset by better trade issues with China. He would build your portfolio from a place of conservatism. He is about 55% equities. He likes global medical devices and US software and mobile payments. He also thinks emerging markets are okay. The Fed Reserve is not full fledged dove, so he would be cautious.
Cameron Hurst
Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 10, 2019
Short Canadian Banks? The Big Short theorist is showing concern for Canadian banks, and he thinks you should pay attention to this. However, he believes Canada's oligopoly in the Canadian bank space makes it difficult for the same credit cycle melt down to happen here. It is difficult to short this.
Short Canadian Banks? The Big Short theorist is showing concern for Canadian banks, and he thinks you should pay attention to this. However, he believes Canada's oligopoly in the Canadian bank space makes it difficult for the same credit cycle melt down to happen here. It is difficult to short this.
Cameron Hurst
Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 10, 2019
PEG ratio? This is the industry PE ratio expressed as a ratio the industry growth rate. You can't trade on it though. It helps justify higher PE ratios for high growth sectors.
PEG ratio? This is the industry PE ratio expressed as a ratio the industry growth rate. You can't trade on it though. It helps justify higher PE ratios for high growth sectors.
Cameron Hurst
Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 10, 2019
The markets year to date are back to fall-2018 highs at 14-15%. Going forward she needs to see a resolution in the China-US trade war and if there isn't, there'll be a pull back. Also, some of the economic data in Canada and the US shows weakness, but the December swoon has recovered in terms of business and consumer confidence. That's positive--they'll spend. From the FED today they said they won't raise interest rates this year. Lastly, with Q1 earnings coming, the S&P consensus is that YOY earnings will be down 2.5% but they may actually be better than that. Trade remains a negative overhang. We need positive profit growth this year to keep going. For 2019, she expects only 3.5-4% overall YOY earnings growth for Q1, but 2018 was strong given tax cuts. She doesn't find super value in the current market and is building cash. We might see a pullback, which will be a buying opportunity.
The markets year to date are back to fall-2018 highs at 14-15%. Going forward she needs to see a resolution in the China-US trade war and if there isn't, there'll be a pull back. Also, some of the economic data in Canada and the US shows weakness, but the December swoon has recovered in terms of business and consumer confidence. That's positive--they'll spend. From the FED today they said they won't raise interest rates this year. Lastly, with Q1 earnings coming, the S&P consensus is that YOY earnings will be down 2.5% but they may actually be better than that. Trade remains a negative overhang. We need positive profit growth this year to keep going. For 2019, she expects only 3.5-4% overall YOY earnings growth for Q1, but 2018 was strong given tax cuts. She doesn't find super value in the current market and is building cash. We might see a pullback, which will be a buying opportunity.
Christine Poole
CEO & Managing Director, GlobeInvest Capital Management