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April 8, 2019
Market. If you roll back the clock and review predictions for the first part of 2019, it continues to notch down today. The best is in the review mirror. Something not priced into earnings is the relative strength in the US dollar over the year and that should be a headwind as well. The deceleration in the economy is possibly not priced in or maybe there are better earnings coming due to the FED backing off on rate hikes. We are going to get a resolution in trade tensions with China & the US sometime this year. There may be a significant number of tariffs. The resolution will be a bit disappointing. Negative rate policies in Europe are proving to be catastrophic when looking at financial ETFs for Europe, the S&P and Canada.
Market. If you roll back the clock and review predictions for the first part of 2019, it continues to notch down today. The best is in the review mirror. Something not priced into earnings is the relative strength in the US dollar over the year and that should be a headwind as well. The deceleration in the economy is possibly not priced in or maybe there are better earnings coming due to the FED backing off on rate hikes. We are going to get a resolution in trade tensions with China & the US sometime this year. There may be a significant number of tariffs. The resolution will be a bit disappointing. Negative rate policies in Europe are proving to be catastrophic when looking at financial ETFs for Europe, the S&P and Canada.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
April 8, 2019
Fixed Income. We are in a low down phase and not in contraction of the economy. In the next year or two, ZTL-T or TLT-T are ways to play longer term treasuries.
Fixed Income. We are in a low down phase and not in contraction of the economy. In the next year or two, ZTL-T or TLT-T are ways to play longer term treasuries.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
April 8, 2019
Educational Segment. Why has inflation been so soft when we are at full employment? The FED is told to seek full employment and stable inflation. The FED is NOT meeting their goals as of today, however. Both are a little low of target. Labour's share of business profits is going down and so that will prevent inflation. This has been happening for decades. Also, life expectancy has been increasing and so people have to save more during their working years.
Educational Segment. Why has inflation been so soft when we are at full employment? The FED is told to seek full employment and stable inflation. The FED is NOT meeting their goals as of today, however. Both are a little low of target. Labour's share of business profits is going down and so that will prevent inflation. This has been happening for decades. Also, life expectancy has been increasing and so people have to save more during their working years.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
April 8, 2019
Market. He believes that China stimulates their economy. But factories are now getting orders again after pessimism in North America in Q4. We are within 2-3% of last year's highs. The easy money off the recovery has been made. We will see how first quarter earnings are. The economy has to slow down just but the law of large numbers. There will be casualties along the way. We are looking at 3-5% return in the markets for the remainder of the year. We already saw 14% this year. He still likes the US because the focus on new technology is from the US.
Market. He believes that China stimulates their economy. But factories are now getting orders again after pessimism in North America in Q4. We are within 2-3% of last year's highs. The easy money off the recovery has been made. We will see how first quarter earnings are. The economy has to slow down just but the law of large numbers. There will be casualties along the way. We are looking at 3-5% return in the markets for the remainder of the year. We already saw 14% this year. He still likes the US because the focus on new technology is from the US.
Bruce Murray
CEO & Chief Investment Officer, The Murray Wealth Group
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 8, 2019
People were hasty in calling a recesssion within the year. Only part of the curve was inverted recently. We're in a slow-growth economy, an interesting time with no meaningful inflation despite lots of stimulus the past decade. We just have to keep rates low to keep the economy going--he isn't worried. Bonds are now paying 2% like inflation, so that means zero returns. To build wealth, you have to buy stocks. So much exposure in equity can you tolerate? Your risk level? Dividend players are not bond proxies to him, though. He believes in total return whether it's in a growth or defensive stock. Canada: He tries not to get too worried in a macro sense about trade (talks), though he's mindful of it.
People were hasty in calling a recesssion within the year. Only part of the curve was inverted recently. We're in a slow-growth economy, an interesting time with no meaningful inflation despite lots of stimulus the past decade. We just have to keep rates low to keep the economy going--he isn't worried. Bonds are now paying 2% like inflation, so that means zero returns. To build wealth, you have to buy stocks. So much exposure in equity can you tolerate? Your risk level? Dividend players are not bond proxies to him, though. He believes in total return whether it's in a growth or defensive stock. Canada: He tries not to get too worried in a macro sense about trade (talks), though he's mindful of it.
John DeGoey
Portfolio Manager, Industrial Alliance Securities
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 8, 2019
Is doubling up a way to avoid capital gains tax? He's unsure about the question, but most people use capital losses to offset gains. Or you don't sell the stocks (which will defer the tax). Or flow-through limited partnerships are another method, but they are riskier and not for everyone. A lot of junior minors and oils use this instrument.
Is doubling up a way to avoid capital gains tax? He's unsure about the question, but most people use capital losses to offset gains. Or you don't sell the stocks (which will defer the tax). Or flow-through limited partnerships are another method, but they are riskier and not for everyone. A lot of junior minors and oils use this instrument.
John DeGoey
Portfolio Manager, Industrial Alliance Securities
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 8, 2019
Is there a geographic allocation recommended for ETFs or just buy a single ETF? His portfolios hold 8 or 12 products, mostly ETFs. That's all you really need. You can build a totally diversified portfolio for a small account ($250K). 25 stocks doesn't match 8 ETFs in diversity and it takes on much more risk. Instead of stocks, spend the extra 25-30 basis points to get ETF that give you global exposure and reduce risk. Also, use ETFs to gain exposure around the world and reduce Canadian bias.
Is there a geographic allocation recommended for ETFs or just buy a single ETF? His portfolios hold 8 or 12 products, mostly ETFs. That's all you really need. You can build a totally diversified portfolio for a small account ($250K). 25 stocks doesn't match 8 ETFs in diversity and it takes on much more risk. Instead of stocks, spend the extra 25-30 basis points to get ETF that give you global exposure and reduce risk. Also, use ETFs to gain exposure around the world and reduce Canadian bias.
John DeGoey
Portfolio Manager, Industrial Alliance Securities