COMMENT
Market a year from now. Didn't fully understand the dip, but now we're 2% off the highs. Higher probability to see it breakout to the upside, not the downside. Though we may be in a range for a while. The wait just got longer for a 3.5-4% bond. He's been 0 weight in the interest sensitives (REITs, utilities) for a while. The risk on these has been to the upside, so they've tried to avoid that.
Unknown
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Good operator. Sensible balance sheet. Like the "Home Depot" of healthcare. Difficult to buy on price. Well run. Always at a premium price, as it's a good company.
medical services
COMMENT
Dividend is sustainable, he thinks. Stable, healthy balance sheet on debt to earnings. Would need a major shock to the oil price for there to be a dividend cut. Good operator. With increase in Canadian exposure, stock has suffered on that perception.
oil / gas
COMMENT
Favourite Canadian bank. Hard to choose among them. Tailwind is gone with interest rates not going up. For next nine months will be very resilient. TD dividend is close to 4%, and it's fine to buy, but that's not his favourite right now. See his top picks today. The big 6 have an oligopoly, so he tries never to go down the risk curve on Canadian banks and go outside those 6, he would go global instead.
Unknown
WATCH
Boeing
A case of uncertainty on top of uncertainty. We could have long-term uncertainty with the name. When you buy, you want to look at your entry point. Could see another dip. Put it on the watch list, and look somewhere else for risk/reward.
Transportation
BUY
Microsoft Corp
Very low risk. Fortress balance sheet, which gives it flexibility for acquisitions and the like, which have not been part of its growth strategy. Converted to a software service company. Hard to find reasons not to buy. (Analysts’ price target is $127.00)
computer software / processing
DON'T BUY
LOW vs. HD. He chooses Home Depot instead. Operationally, HD does a fabulous job. Lowes has underperformed. Demographics are working for both. Tailwind of about 5-10% in revenue. Not as susceptible to the Amazon effect. Lowes is a safe place to be, but muted on the growth.
misc industrial products
HOLD
Home Depot
HD vs. LOW. He chooses Home Depot. Operationally, HD does a fabulous job. Lowes has underperformed. Demographics are working for both. Tailwind of about 5-10% in revenue. Not as susceptible to the Amazon effect. Lowes is a safe place to be, but muted on the growth.
specialty stores
DON'T BUY
Arc Resources Ltd
One of the better operators in Alberta. But as underlying price drops, constant pressure on the company. At these levels, as long as you're at 100% payout ratio, you're probably fine. But if oil price dips, they'll have to reduce capex or dividends, and that's not growth. He's not looking at these levels.
oil / gas
COMMENT
Enbridge
It's not over $50 because of rate hikes over the last 3 years. That all changed starting in 2019. They have a lot of debt. They might raise more equity to try to clean up the balance sheet. If interest rates get cut, ENB should go higher.
oil / gas pipelines
DON'T BUY
Shopify Inc.
He was in and out of the stock over the last 5 years. But now it's very expensive. Now you're over 20x sales. Doesn't see the argument that they'd be taken out at this multiple. Growth has slowed a tiny bit. Too rich for him.
0
COMMENT
Walt Disney Co.
Well run, consistent, many arms of profitability. Struggles with ESPN, but going head to head with Netflix, which already has a massive user base. Takes a lot of work to get to those levels, so that's a risk. There's a question mark for him in this area. Good at making content, but what's their skill set for distribution.
entertainment services
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 17/18, Up 26%) Levered up, but you have to look at whether there are good reasons for it. They did it to buy competitors and turned that into profitable growth. He'd stick with it. Loves the name from here. Track record has proven itself.
food stores
PAST TOP PICK
Box, Inc.
(A Top Pick Oct 17/18, Down 2%) Cloud content management. Manages Fortune 500 companies data. Stock dropped on lower growth. He thinks longer term, it's going higher.
Technology
PAST TOP PICK
Banco Santander SA
(A Top Pick Oct 17/18, Down 1%) Tailwind went when Fed slowed on interest hikes. Dissatisfied holding it. Wouldn't panic sell it, but it depends if he finds a better place to park capital.
banks