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March 11, 2019
Market. Saudi Arabia is really serious about clamping down on supply but the US is looking to become the biggest energy producer in the world. You can't forecast in this area. The Euro central bank has come out with a very gloomy outlook. They are changing leadership this fall and the past/present leaders are of completely different viewpoints. This is toxic for the banks. DB-N is now lower than the 2008 lows of the financial crisis. Growth is not strong in the world and the only reason for growth in the last decade has been negative interest rates and a massive accumulation of debt in the world. Fiscal and monetary policies are NOT working.
Market. Saudi Arabia is really serious about clamping down on supply but the US is looking to become the biggest energy producer in the world. You can't forecast in this area. The Euro central bank has come out with a very gloomy outlook. They are changing leadership this fall and the past/present leaders are of completely different viewpoints. This is toxic for the banks. DB-N is now lower than the 2008 lows of the financial crisis. Growth is not strong in the world and the only reason for growth in the last decade has been negative interest rates and a massive accumulation of debt in the world. Fiscal and monetary policies are NOT working.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
HOLD
HOLD
March 11, 2019
Bonds vs. Canadian Bank Equities. The risk in bonds to stocks is night and day. We are late in the cycle. This is the longest expansion we have had in equity markets. Now is not the time to move from Bonds to Equities. He thinks bonds will do well next year. Interest rates will stay low for decades to come. After the next recession Canadian Banks will be a phenomenal buy.
Bonds vs. Canadian Bank Equities. The risk in bonds to stocks is night and day. We are late in the cycle. This is the longest expansion we have had in equity markets. Now is not the time to move from Bonds to Equities. He thinks bonds will do well next year. Interest rates will stay low for decades to come. After the next recession Canadian Banks will be a phenomenal buy.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
March 11, 2019
How long should you watch a new ETF until it gets to an appropriate level of liquidity before buying? The key thing is the viability of the fund. Usually within a year if the fund does not have $30-50 Million in assets than it won't be making a lot of money. BMo does not have that concern. When new ETFs come out, they have lots of runway. Usually ETFs have the liquidity of the underlying holdings.
How long should you watch a new ETF until it gets to an appropriate level of liquidity before buying? The key thing is the viability of the fund. Usually within a year if the fund does not have $30-50 Million in assets than it won't be making a lot of money. BMo does not have that concern. When new ETFs come out, they have lots of runway. Usually ETFs have the liquidity of the underlying holdings.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
March 11, 2019
Educational Segment. The Energy Sector. The TSX is 18% energy. The world is 5% and the US is 5.85%. Canada has a big bet on energy. It is 39% of the index in Norway. The energy sector in 2012 was 26.2% in Canada and a little over 10% in the rest of the world. It means that sector has been under performing and he does not see any change. In 2011 the US shale fracking boom started. It has been a struggle ever since for oil prices. He believes that oil is going to be centered around $50 for a long time to come. US pipelines are the place to be as they will be full for years and years to come. Canada will under perform because our governments don't like pipelines.
Educational Segment. The Energy Sector. The TSX is 18% energy. The world is 5% and the US is 5.85%. Canada has a big bet on energy. It is 39% of the index in Norway. The energy sector in 2012 was 26.2% in Canada and a little over 10% in the rest of the world. It means that sector has been under performing and he does not see any change. In 2011 the US shale fracking boom started. It has been a struggle ever since for oil prices. He believes that oil is going to be centered around $50 for a long time to come. US pipelines are the place to be as they will be full for years and years to come. Canada will under perform because our governments don't like pipelines.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
March 11, 2019
Market. Recession fears were overdone last December. Recessions don't happen as much as they used to in a service based economy. In the US they have only ever seen the economy go 10 years without recession, but in other countries around the world, the UK for example, has gone 15; Australia is in their 28th year of economic expansion.
Market. Recession fears were overdone last December. Recessions don't happen as much as they used to in a service based economy. In the US they have only ever seen the economy go 10 years without recession, but in other countries around the world, the UK for example, has gone 15; Australia is in their 28th year of economic expansion.
Teal Linde
Portfolio Manager & Publisher, Linde Equity Report, Linde Equity Report
N/A
N/A
March 11, 2019
Uranium has been a very tough place to be. Don't buy the companies. He would just buy the Uranium participation units (UPC-T). At some point it is going to rise.
Uranium has been a very tough place to be. Don't buy the companies. He would just buy the Uranium participation units (UPC-T). At some point it is going to rise.
Teal Linde
Portfolio Manager & Publisher, Linde Equity Report, Linde Equity Report
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 11, 2019
We shouldn't be fooled with the current big bouce off December sell-off. We are creating a top now and then become choppy, but we're at the top of the range now. The first stop in a pullback would be 24,000 on the Dow, then 21,000 is the BIG drop-off, but he does not expect that. The Dow may fall 1,000-1,500 then will regroup. He would take profits now. Reward yourself with some victories. Boeing was down 5% today after the Ethiopian crash yesterday. He expected a deeper pullback for Boeing actually, though the company isn't out of the woodwork yet. Apple was up 3.5% today, and tech also had a big day today. Tech still looks great. Apple is underperforming compared to peers. SNC Lavalin: buy it now after being beat up. It's oversold because of politics.
We shouldn't be fooled with the current big bouce off December sell-off. We are creating a top now and then become choppy, but we're at the top of the range now. The first stop in a pullback would be 24,000 on the Dow, then 21,000 is the BIG drop-off, but he does not expect that. The Dow may fall 1,000-1,500 then will regroup. He would take profits now. Reward yourself with some victories. Boeing was down 5% today after the Ethiopian crash yesterday. He expected a deeper pullback for Boeing actually, though the company isn't out of the woodwork yet. Apple was up 3.5% today, and tech also had a big day today. Tech still looks great. Apple is underperforming compared to peers. SNC Lavalin: buy it now after being beat up. It's oversold because of politics.
Elliott Fishman
Director of U.S. and international equity trading, Trading Services Group, Scotia Wealth