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Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Brooke Thackray commented about whether IWM-N, EMN-N, TJX-N, CTC.A-T, PPL-T, GE-N, BIR-T, NTR-T, OTEX-T, ASA-N, UPS-N, XRT-N, FHD-T, AD-T, PWF-T, POW-T, SBUX-Q, KEY-T, ZUB-T, TFII-T, ARE-T, ZZZD-T, AMZN-Q, HHL-T, ZZZD-T, ZJO-T, XSP-T, XUS-T are stocks to buy or sell.
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Unknown
COMMENT
XUS-T Vs. XSP-T. They are S&P exposure, hedged and unhedged. It is a currency call. He thinks the Canadian $ will weaken into the next recession as it has in past recessions. $0.70 is within reach. The closer to 78 cents, you want that hedging. He will add back below that to his US exposure and it will be unhedged.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
XUS-T Vs. XSP-T. They are S&P exposure, hedged and unhedged. It is a currency call. He thinks the Canadian $ will weaken into the next recession as it has in past recessions. $0.70 is within reach. The closer to 78 cents, you want that hedging. He will add back below that to his US exposure and it will be unhedged.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
It is smaller oil and gas plays. Junior oils. 25% Canada and the rest is US. Compared to US large cap ETFs like IYE-N: As the price of oil is going down, both fell but small caps fell more than larger caps. He is okay with smaller caps. It is not investible yet.
STRONG BUY
ZZZD-T plays the ZWU-T, ZWC-T and so on so it is actively managed, aiming for a 4% yield See today's educational segment.
E.T.F.'s
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Number one Black Swan Worry. A black swan is supposed to be something no one is thinking about. Trump's end of term would be one. But over the last few years we doubled the debt in the world without creating growth. The US and China have horrible fiscal positions – Japan also. This is the catalyst for bad economics over the next few years. This would be the Black Swan: a credit problem.
Unknown
BUY
It is the healthcare leaders strategy ETF, actively managed with a covered call overlay. He sees a yield of about 9% but the holdings yield 3-4% so the rest is from the options strategy. The yield is sustainable if the managers know what they are doing. He likes the exposure and what they are trying to do.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
Their core business of boxing and shipping stuff is not making money. This is not why you buy AMZN-Q. It is because they are a disruptor. Buy it when it gets beaten silly. He would not touch it today. Below $1000 it might be a buy.
specialty stores
STRONG BUY
In a registered account, the distribution has no tax treatment. In RIFF situations it is treated as all income. 20% is Canadian exposed and gets the benefit of the dividend tax credit. There is a component of income as well as dividend yield from the fund.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
Educational Segment. Sleep at night. ZZZD-T was launched. A study of pension fund data yielded that returns were from asset allocation. It is not what securities you pick, but asset allocation that drives returns. Over the last year there is no return in the fund. The total world ETF and Canadian ETF performances are worse. He has been adding to exposure when it was dropping. He moved into ETFs with lower downside. He caught most of the upside. He won the Lipper award for best risk adjusted return. www.ZZZPorfolios.com.
Unknown
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Market. This is a little bit of a bounce. The market was oversold. This is a key time because we are going into earnings season after having terrible economic reports. When you have negative news and the market rallies that is good. But C-N today came out missing on earnings with revenue up. Seasonally this is a good time to be in the market but we are jostling back and forth. The TSX has been advancing nicely since the beginning of 2019. We have to get through 15,300 which is the resistance level. He thinks we will see some muddling around for the next few months.
Unknown
BUY
We are off our highs. Our lows are higher and that is good. Seasonally it is a good time. This is the time of year they do well and technically they look good.
contractors
BUY
A logistics company. This is the time of year the transportation sector will do well. We saw it pull back with the rest of the market. We are still at the April level, support. This is positive as we are entering the seasonal period for this stock.
Transportation
BUY
US equal weight banks hedged to CAD$. This is a fairly good trade over the next three months. Banks do well into mid-April. Over the next few months get the strongest months for the CAD$. It is a good trade.
E.T.F.'s
WEAK BUY
If you find the commodity price going up then investors feel the pipeline is worth more. He prefers IPL-T because they are building that plant and will diversify their assets. It may hurt until a little further down the road. They are both setting up well because the energy sector is positive from February going into April. (Analysts’ price target is $38.00)
oil / gas
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Market. The ZZZD-T ETF was launched today and Larry opened the TSX in celebration. This trade war with China started a year ago. Emerging markets have been under-performing until the last couple of months and now are reacting to anticipation of good news. This will motivate the US and China but will not resolve the theft of IP. Ultimately he thinks the recession is still coming. We had a lot of downgrades in earnings projections and that was why we had a down turn in December. Earnings will not turn down yet but will in the future. Except for the effect of tax cuts, earnings are not growing. The S&P is around fair value and so should stabilize for a while.