Market. Since we got super oversold back on Christmas Eve, we bounced up. Base metals look good; energy, base metals and technology look really good. Around the 24th we saw a further rollover of the US$. It will support emerging markets amongst others. We should move ahead strongly at the end of January. The base metals move inverse to the US$ so as it is breaking down, we expect base metals to go up. He expects a multi-year bear market in the US$. The 10-year US note is falling with the price of oil. These yields should now continue higher.
He just bought CP-T in the last couple of days. There is a little up-tick after Dec 24th. He would buy it now. If it breaks below the $90 range then it may come down further. The risk/reward is pretty low. He would pick it up now
As it declined he would not go long. It would be a case of getting out quick enough. It is trying to base now, since Dec 24th. It needs to get above the $16-17 range. They reduced their dividend, which the market expected. He uses a drip on this.
A base has not formed yet. It has a pretty significant downtrend. It will have a lot of resistance between $32-33 and until it chews threw that you will probably not get a base.
The banks did not have their strong seasonal period recently and he reduced his holdings to just BMO-T. We are at a magic level here. It is banging into resistance right now. If we get above $105 it will be clear sailing to $110. BMO-T or TD-T are the best banks and CM-T is pretty good. We should have a second period of seasonality starting near the end of January until April.
It came back and tested the $40 range. We are trying to get above $45 and we are stuck at resistance. He put in a stop around $44. It will probably drift sideways until the $48 range. He would look to buy at $40 if it pulled back.
US$. The billions of repatriation dollars are probably ending? There was a bit rush of money coming back in so we could start to see a fall in the US$ rate. The Canadian dollar has rebounded since Christmas. We will run into resistance around $0.76. You will probably see a continuation of the strength in the Canadian dollar. Resistance would be at $0.80.
Don’t worry that it is not participating. It will be impacted by rates and a rush to safety. If it was bought recently it has declined a little bit. It is a little over extended. It will probably stick in the current range. BCE-T will be impacted by rates. $51 - $67 will be the range it is stuck in.
All their real estate is operated reasonably. Commercial is holding up a bit better than residential. It had a nice little run while people got nervous with markets. The October drop might have scared some investors. Hold this one for income.
Utilities vs. Telcos. Which Sector? He would look at a basket of them. XUT-T is a utility ETF. For Telcos he would get a basket directly because of the ETF's volume. In case rates go much higher he would not get a large position.
(A Top Pick Feb 16/18, Down 23%) The biggest drop was the summer through to today when we normally have an uptick. It will probably have a pretty big catch up. A year out investors will be quite happy they stuck with it.
(A Top Pick Feb 16/18, Up 13%) There have been some pretty big swings. It is only a matter of time before it breaks out of the trend and moves further up.
(A Top Pick Feb 16/18, Down 11%) It's going to have some resistance about $100. He thinks it is a quality bank and soon we should see a challenge of the previous high at $120.
Another sector where people are not sure what to make of it. A bunch of people were laid off in New Brunswick because they could not get supply. From a technical basis, where it is is very significant. He would expect a bounce here. If we get through $8 it would look like $10 and then $12.