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December 31, 2018
Market. We so oversold that the bullish percent index reached the lowest level in twenty years last week for both Canada and the US. These levels give us a benchmark as to where we are going into 2019. In July 2002 a low level was set and then the S&P went up 24%. In 2008 it went up 27% after such a level. In Canada the TSX in 2002 went up 10% right after a bullish percent index low, and similar levels in the years listed above. After this next correction, it is a multi-year low. As an investor you want to hold off until this low coming this summer or late fall. Traders can have some fun in the meantime. This is just a 4-year spike down on the bull market. We've seen most of the correction. It is a strange market but you can take advantage by owning specific securities in the short term. The US index has completed a double top pattern in the last two weeks. It means commodity stock prices will start moving higher. Gold is strong until mid-Dec. until the end of Feb. and that has clicked in. Copper normally bottoms this time of year and then goes higher until May of each year. Crude oil bottoms the third week in January. You need to play the seasons, but remember that the seasons do end.
General Market Comment
December 31, 2018
Market. We so oversold that the bullish percent index reached the lowest level in twenty years last week for both Canada and the US. These levels give us a benchmark as to where we are going into 2019. In July 2002 a low level was set and then the S&P went up 24%. In 2008 it went up 27% after such a level. In Canada the TSX in 2002 went up 10% right after a bullish percent index low, and similar levels in the years listed above. After this next correction, it is a multi-year low. As an investor you want to hold off until this low coming this summer or late fall. Traders can have some fun in the meantime. This is just a 4-year spike down on the bull market. We've seen most of the correction. It is a strange market but you can take advantage by owning specific securities in the short term. The US index has completed a double top pattern in the last two weeks. It means commodity stock prices will start moving higher. Gold is strong until mid-Dec. until the end of Feb. and that has clicked in. Copper normally bottoms this time of year and then goes higher until May of each year. Crude oil bottoms the third week in January. You need to play the seasons, but remember that the seasons do end.
Don Vialoux
Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM
N/A
N/A
December 31, 2018
Were ETFs exacerbating the selling in December? ETFs are a greater percentage of trading activity in markets. Between Christmas and New year, volumes are low and concentrated on retail investors. ETFs have a greater influence during this period of time. It ends next week so don’t be too concerned. Indiscriminant selling due to ETF sales is concerning and was so recently when a lot of computer trading took place. It exacerbated the downside but now it is going to exacerbate the upside going into 2019.
General Market Comment
December 31, 2018
Were ETFs exacerbating the selling in December? ETFs are a greater percentage of trading activity in markets. Between Christmas and New year, volumes are low and concentrated on retail investors. ETFs have a greater influence during this period of time. It ends next week so don’t be too concerned. Indiscriminant selling due to ETF sales is concerning and was so recently when a lot of computer trading took place. It exacerbated the downside but now it is going to exacerbate the upside going into 2019.
Don Vialoux
Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM
N/A
N/A
December 31, 2018
Outlook for oil into the summer. Crude oil has a history of bottoming in the middle of January until May. This kind of volatility on the down side means increased volatility on the upside later. Crude prices are trying to bottom. They should then turn up.
General Market Comment
December 31, 2018
Outlook for oil into the summer. Crude oil has a history of bottoming in the middle of January until May. This kind of volatility on the down side means increased volatility on the upside later. Crude prices are trying to bottom. They should then turn up.
Don Vialoux
Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM
N/A
N/A
December 31, 2018
How far will we go down in the S&P? He sees the S&P going up in the first quarter and then below the previous low following that and it will then be a multiyear low for the index. It will be a new floor of support. It will then slowly move higher.
General Market Comment
December 31, 2018
How far will we go down in the S&P? He sees the S&P going up in the first quarter and then below the previous low following that and it will then be a multiyear low for the index. It will be a new floor of support. It will then slowly move higher.
Don Vialoux
Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM
WAIT
WAIT
December 31, 2018
Canadian Bank Stocks. A good time to buy in? Historically the bank stocks in Canada reach a low in January and then move higher into April. Currently they are in a downtrend but within the next month the sector will bottom. There is longer term support at current levels to the downside. Risk is minimal. Dividend yields could go higher from current levels.
General Market Comment
December 31, 2018
Canadian Bank Stocks. A good time to buy in? Historically the bank stocks in Canada reach a low in January and then move higher into April. Currently they are in a downtrend but within the next month the sector will bottom. There is longer term support at current levels to the downside. Risk is minimal. Dividend yields could go higher from current levels.
Don Vialoux
Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM
N/A
N/A
December 31, 2018
Educational Segment. There is going to be another leg lower. The Dow normally does this in a pre-election year: The first quarter goes up significantly. It is the second strongest quarter of the 4 year cycle (5.2%). There was the shutdown of the government which they will get rid of. During the last 18 periods after shut down 9 of them have seen the market not go higher. Negotiations with China are important because if they reach a trade agreement it will have a big impact on markets. Fourth quarter earnings reports from the S&P are expected to be up 12%.
General Market Comment
December 31, 2018
Educational Segment. There is going to be another leg lower. The Dow normally does this in a pre-election year: The first quarter goes up significantly. It is the second strongest quarter of the 4 year cycle (5.2%). There was the shutdown of the government which they will get rid of. During the last 18 periods after shut down 9 of them have seen the market not go higher. Negotiations with China are important because if they reach a trade agreement it will have a big impact on markets. Fourth quarter earnings reports from the S&P are expected to be up 12%.
Don Vialoux
Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM
N/A
N/A
December 31, 2018
Market. He has been short most of the year and in the last week went net long. There is less downside risk for the markets now. There are potential catalytic events that could send them to the upside. This is far from over in terms of a bear market because we haven’t got all the bad news yet. It is after a 10 year run-up in the markets. A lot of the tail winds have gone. It is a trading market. Look for beaten up companies at low multiples with good earnings with low trading risks, such as FDX-N. We've seen the best in earnings for the next year. He thinks they could go negative for the next year. It is too soon to sound the bell that the bottom is in.
General Market Comment
December 31, 2018
Market. He has been short most of the year and in the last week went net long. There is less downside risk for the markets now. There are potential catalytic events that could send them to the upside. This is far from over in terms of a bear market because we haven’t got all the bad news yet. It is after a 10 year run-up in the markets. A lot of the tail winds have gone. It is a trading market. Look for beaten up companies at low multiples with good earnings with low trading risks, such as FDX-N. We've seen the best in earnings for the next year. He thinks they could go negative for the next year. It is too soon to sound the bell that the bottom is in.
John Zechner
Chairman, J. Zechner & Assoc