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December 17, 2018
Market. He thinks the US president has to stop trying to interfere in the FED because is it makes it hard for them to be wholly independent. They are not going to cut interest rates here. Yes, a yearend rally is coming because we always get one. The question is to what level. A five percent rally is the most likely. He expects a very dovish rate hike in interest rates. He is relatively long but not bullish. He is playing a trading bounce. Once we get that bounce, he is back to extreme defense.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2018
Market. He thinks the US president has to stop trying to interfere in the FED because is it makes it hard for them to be wholly independent. They are not going to cut interest rates here. Yes, a yearend rally is coming because we always get one. The question is to what level. A five percent rally is the most likely. He expects a very dovish rate hike in interest rates. He is relatively long but not bullish. He is playing a trading bounce. Once we get that bounce, he is back to extreme defense.
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December 17, 2018
When a corporation has added a lot of debt on the balance sheet and we go into a downturn, credit contraction and expansion is the factor that influences the growth. Extra growth above the 1.5% due to population, in good times, comes from extra borrowing to invest. During bad times we go below that 1.5% growth to make up for it and that is a recession.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2018
When a corporation has added a lot of debt on the balance sheet and we go into a downturn, credit contraction and expansion is the factor that influences the growth. Extra growth above the 1.5% due to population, in good times, comes from extra borrowing to invest. During bad times we go below that 1.5% growth to make up for it and that is a recession.
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December 17, 2018
GIC or a good Bond ETF? You need a way to get out of a GIC. In the next year to a year and a half there will be a phenomenal opportunity to buy equities. In a recession, bonds DO have positive returns. If the FED unwinds the balance sheet, there will be extra supply. There is a case to be made where bond yields don’t go much lower than we have seen.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2018
GIC or a good Bond ETF? You need a way to get out of a GIC. In the next year to a year and a half there will be a phenomenal opportunity to buy equities. In a recession, bonds DO have positive returns. If the FED unwinds the balance sheet, there will be extra supply. There is a case to be made where bond yields don’t go much lower than we have seen.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 17, 2018
Bond funds. He would not buy a conventional bond fund right now. Go to ETFs for core exposure. ZWG-T is the entire Canadian bond market.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2018
Bond funds. He would not buy a conventional bond fund right now. Go to ETFs for core exposure. ZWG-T is the entire Canadian bond market.
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December 17, 2018

Educational Segment. 2018 and Predictions for 2019. He predicted last year that we would get a sell-the-news correction of 5-10%. There is no single asset class this year that is up. Everything year-to-date is now down. His call was right. He forecast Bitcoin was a bubble and when he said that on this show, it was the peak for the year. It has corrected 90% so far from its peak. He thinks there is another 90% still to go. He thinks Bitcoin is going to almost zero. There is more weakness to come in terms of the US$. In terms of US equity markets. The average recession correction is 29%. He thinks the next recession will be worse than average in terms of US Equities. The recession will not hit mainstream until late 2019 and 2020. There will be a trading rally or two.

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General Market Comment
December 17, 2018

Educational Segment. 2018 and Predictions for 2019. He predicted last year that we would get a sell-the-news correction of 5-10%. There is no single asset class this year that is up. Everything year-to-date is now down. His call was right. He forecast Bitcoin was a bubble and when he said that on this show, it was the peak for the year. It has corrected 90% so far from its peak. He thinks there is another 90% still to go. He thinks Bitcoin is going to almost zero. There is more weakness to come in terms of the US$. In terms of US equity markets. The average recession correction is 29%. He thinks the next recession will be worse than average in terms of US Equities. The recession will not hit mainstream until late 2019 and 2020. There will be a trading rally or two.

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December 17, 2018
Market. No utilities or infrastructure. He thinks we have seen a nasty tax loss selling season and that it is almost over. The market is at a pivotal level. There is a draining of liquidity on the Fed balance sheet as they let investments roll off. He watches the VIX. At market lows it goes to the 40-50 range. It went to 50.3 recently. 1987 we went up to 80-90% on the VIX. There are bargains out there but the key thing is that everything is on sale, both good and bad companies. You have to find the good companies. He sees a 5 year bull market.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2018
Market. No utilities or infrastructure. He thinks we have seen a nasty tax loss selling season and that it is almost over. The market is at a pivotal level. There is a draining of liquidity on the Fed balance sheet as they let investments roll off. He watches the VIX. At market lows it goes to the 40-50 range. It went to 50.3 recently. 1987 we went up to 80-90% on the VIX. There are bargains out there but the key thing is that everything is on sale, both good and bad companies. You have to find the good companies. He sees a 5 year bull market.
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December 17, 2018
Oil supply and demand. Supply keeps growing year after year. He thinks supply and demand will be be kept tight. He thinks we may see $80 oil in 2020.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2018
Oil supply and demand. Supply keeps growing year after year. He thinks supply and demand will be be kept tight. He thinks we may see $80 oil in 2020.