Market. Saudi Arabia is going to tighten the taps on oil to support oil prices. $50 +/- $10 is probably where we should be for the next 5 years. He is okay with trading US energy equities. When we hit the next recession, say in the 2020's, we will see oil in the $30s again. Europe is very fragile. Japan is not really tightening policy. Only the US is now raising interest rates and so the US dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger.
Long Bond Durations. Once interest rates start to fall these will make a lot more money compared to shorter term bonds. You can now tactically take positions in long term bonds. He is starting to sell TLT-T. He made one percent in less than a week. It is negatively correlated to equities.
ZWU-T vs. ZWB-T. Rising interest rates are positive for revenues for banks, not profits necessarily. The yield curve is flattening and this is not good for banks. He prefers ZWU-t to ZWB-T.
ZWU-T vs. ZWB-T. Rising interest rates are positive for revenues for banks, not profits necessarily. The yield curve is flattening and this is not good for banks. He prefers ZWU-t to ZWB-T.
He likes it. He has used it in the past. One to three year corporate bonds. He has moved all his short term corporate bonds into floating rate notes, which will do better.
Real Estate. Should one take profits or can you continue to take dividends. The answer involves risk. The Canadian REIT sector is tremendously overvalued. It is one of the last interest rate sensitive industries to turn over in rising interest rates. You could see 10-15% downturn sometime through to 2021. ZWU-T would give a better yield and he prefers this one.
It's only been trading a few days. Cyber security is going to be one of the most important industries for the next half century. It is a young industry so in an economic downturn, spending here is the first to get cut back.
Educational Segment. Controlling risk in portfolios. Beta is market risk. Buying a low cost ETF on the market index is a beta of 1. Get this when the outlook is clear. Otherwise he suggests ZUE-T, ZSP-T, ZLU-T, ZPW-T, ZWH-T. All but ZSP-T have a beta lower than 1.
Market. Significant technical damage has been done to equities. It's not like 2008. You have to know what to do – hold more bonds, for example. As people come back to buy the market they are not so sure about the market and there is a wall of selling as the market comes back up. GS-N came out and cut their earnings estimates for the market over the next two years. The growth in Canadian household debt has been reducing as interest rates are rising. Technical, in markets we are at relative strength lows. Global PMIs are decelerating. He is reducing equity exposure.
It is a mortgage company. They are sensitive to rates. It is not a bad entry point. It is a yield play. There won't be much capital appreciation. The amortization of the portfolio will accelerate. Four rate hikes by the Fed next year would be a headwind.
Global Healthcare Outside the US. He prefers XLV-N or IHI-Q in the US. There is a larger portion of Pharma in the Global healthcare space. He stays away from the biotech side. He was adding to healthcare exposure last week.
We are just starting to see the first signs of credit strain last quarter. But C-N trades quite cheap. He prefers other US banks like JPM-N. The big guys have more levers to pull to get through the credit storm. C-N will have some revenue headwinds. Now is not the time to plow into financials.
They have drugs going off patent in 2020. They have 5 big names coming into trials at the same time. He is not clear on what will cause it to bounce. Don't buy lows. The price is confirmed by relative strength.
He likes it. It is a fin-tech. It is expensive, but for a good reason. He struggles with buying it when markets are vulnerable. The growth numbers are good and the platform is good. All the boxes are checked, but it will not be immune in a downturn.