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Energy. There has been a remarkable narrowing of the differential between WTI, Brent, and even Western Canadian Select, as the loonie gets played into the factor. This is a dynamic that he has been talking about all year. Oil has done remarkably well. US bench price is up about 14% this year. As the US$ goes up against the loonie, it benefits oil producers. Every 1% change in the currency is, effectively, a 1% increase in top line revenue. When looking at the differential between the WTI and Brent, he had it around $19 for a light barrel and this is now narrowed to about $4 today. Expects it to widen just slightly. Going forward we are probably looking at a $5 differential between WTI and Brent. The US has been very active in building out their infrastructure network, both from pipeline and rail. There has been close to 1 million barrels a day of capacity built this year and there will be a further million constructed in 2014-2015. There is still a disconnect between the current price of oil and what oil stocks are discounting.

Finally getting some recognition from the street in terms of some of the positives of underlying fundamentals. Has been a victim of very wet weather. 2 years ago they missed guidance and had to spend a bit more which has been an overhang on the stock, even though they’ve been executing. Beat their 2012 guidance and he thinks this year is going to be very strong. Have a suite of very, very good assets. Turner Valley is working out much better than people had given them credit for. In their most recent wells, they drilled 3 with certain tweaks by changing their drilling fluid. Also shot 3-D seismic allowing them to stay in the zone much, much longer. Have also unlocked a good play in Midal with paybacks in less than a year and a half. Exposed to over 300 million barrels of light oil. Have an inventory of 15 years.

Cut the dividend because of balance sheet pressures. Made, what they thought was an attractive acquisition, from Penn West Petroleum (PWT-T) but it turned of the true cost was higher than what they had believed. As a result, net debt was about $54 million higher than what they had told everybody. Company is looking at strategic alternatives. There are rumblings that somebody may acquire it.

Service sector is very hot right now. There are 2 key plays that are highly service intensive, Montney and Duvernay which is bringing brand-new capital and is translating into very strong demand for both drillers and fracers. In Canada there are 3 fracers, Trican (TCW-T), Canyon (FRC-T) and this one. This one benefits from very strong relationships with Petronas (?), so it is expected they will be able to announce a contract in the coming weeks as they wrap up activity. Reporting tonight and it is expected it will be poor quarter because of wet conditions in Q2 but their forward looking guidance is going to be very strong, which should be a catalyst for the entire fracing space.

There is uncertainty about one of their properties, Primrose, which has 2 leaks and is releasing bitumen. This company had this problem in 2009 and were ordered to stop steaming. Short-term guidance from this company is that there are no changes. Have stopped steaming but still have production. The concern is the impact for 2014. Has a proved reserve value of around $27, which would be his absolute worst scenario. If it ever approached that level, he’d be a very active acquirer.

One of the best run junior light oil companies in Canada. Has never owned because it has always been expensive but has always been able to maintain a premium multiple. Trading at around 6.5X on a forward basis.

(A Top Pick September 19/12. Down 26.85%.) Still regarded as a potential takeout target for companies that are building very large LNG terminals. The actual requirement of these companies versus what they already have is increasingly coming into question. The market is very much awash in assets for sale. He would rate this company’s assets as quite good.

(A Top Pick September 19/12. Up 53.27%.) Trading at 6 times and could approach $13. 5.7% dividend yield.

(A Top Pick September 19/12. Down 5.2%.) Have changed their tune in terms of focusing on per share growth. Have done a great job of accumulating accretive acquisitions, very good assets that have very strong upside from water flooding. Thinks they are done using their stock as currency. Expects it to trade $35-$39 until it breaks out.

(Worst call ever made.) This would have been investing in pure exploration companies in oil/gas. When you buy a company that has no underlying production, you are paying forward for future success. If you have no drilling success or underlying production, the value of your company then comes into question.

(Best call ever made.) He got in very early and this did very, very well. Stock went on to increase by 30X.

Cautious on a name like this because the price of natural gas in Canada today is much less than what many people perceive. This is because of the basis differential, the difference between natural gas prices in Alberta relative to other benchmarks and is very, very wide. Good management and the asset base is super quality but is trading at a very high multiple. He doesn’t believe in $5-$6 natural gas. He thinks it is capped at $4-$4.50 for many years to come, even with LNG.

There is a record amount of product in the market. Unless a company has a really fantastic asset that is better than what the buyer is purchasing, the likelihood of a very high bid is very low. This company’s drilling has really struggled over the last couple of years and management has over promoted certain plays that have not come to fruition for several years.

Needs funding to bring on 1 of 2 very large projects. Went to the credit market to raise money but the credit market said they needed 10%-12% interest rates. This company has one of the best heavy oil teams in the business and the quality of their assets is probably very good but their ability to fund it is challenged.

Recently changed to a dividend payer. Did one major financing to buy a light oil package from Cenovus (CVE-T). They are slowing down production and getting the decline rate down to 23%-24% which means the sustainability of the dividend becomes much more doable. Expect they will be quite active on the M&A front. .7.7% yield should be safe. Thinks it will be over $6 in the near-term.