COMMENT

US Markets. Have concerns about the 2nd half of the year. Volumes have been very low this summer and the recent rally was a low grade one. His worry is on the “fiscal cliff” concern on a variety of different initiatives that will automatically get implemented in the US. Could potentially shave as much as 4% off of GDP out of the equation if politicians don’t get their act together. Doesn’t think it will play out as well as the headlines. Currently he is going to sit aside because he feels there will be better opportunity between now and the end of the year to look at some of the US names. Currently market has gone up because of expectations of a QE 3 by the Fed that he feels they will push out for at least a few more months.

Unknown
COMMENT

Canadian Market. Being an export-based economy we have to be very careful about some of the industries such as energy and materials. Feels the economic environment in Canada is fine. 2% growth is not great but better than other global regions. Continues to see earnings growth into 2013. Market doesn’t look cheap but doesn’t look really expensive. Still feels there is upside in the market from here.

Unknown
HOLD
Agrium

A hedge fund is currently trying to get them to surface some value out of their retail division. Doesn’t think this is a smart move for the company. Management can probably get a little bit better in inventory management and improving some of the margins of their retail division. Expect there is some potential for some upside surprises in earnings.

chemicals
BUY ON WEAKNESS
PotashCorp

Before buying, he would wait for some downside. Have given further guidance that they are going to cut some production. Basically trying to manage inventory because demand is weak. Expecting potential downside from volumes this year and into 2013. 52-week low was $38.31 and he would try to buy at that price.

integrated mines
COMMENT

Sees some upside potential. Canadian oil prices have not been nearly as strong as West Texas Intermediate. There has been a bit of a discount on heavy oil prices so a lot of Canadian producers, including this one, have been impacted by that.

oil / gas
BUY
Keyera Corp

Had a bit of a stumble earlier this year because of natural gas liquids and frac spreads. Last quarter was not so bad. A good long-term investment.

oil / gas
DON'T BUY

Not particularly enamoured with this stock. Would prefer Labrador Iron Ore Royalty (LIF.UN-T) because of the weakness of steel demand from China with significant weakness in the price of iron ore. This company is a bit challenged from a profitability perspective.

metal mines
BUY

Collects a percentage royalty off the top making it his preferred choice in iron ore. Sees upside potential and really likes the dividend yield of 4.6%.

Financial Services
DON'T BUY

Challenged on the aerospace side. Transportation business is strong but both are very exposed to the overhang of weakness in Europe. Thinks there will be some significant cutbacks in spending in that whole area. CAE (CAE-T) would be a better choice.

transportation equip & components
BUY

This is a name that he likes.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
COMMENT
Rona Inc

Hopes that Lowes (LOW-N) is successful in its acquisition and he feels they will be. Rona from a fundamental perspective has never been a favourite. Have had deteriorating fundamentals.

specialty stores
BUY
Cenovus Energy

This is his favourite in the integrated space. Built for growth as far out as 2017. Likes its diversified nature. Its refining assets help to offset some of the volatility. Have been delivering on their promises. Bringing cash costs and volumes in lower-than-expected. Possible dividend increases. Expecting a 15% upside in 12 months.

oil / gas
BUY
Dream Office REIT

Probably one of the best positioned REITs in Canada. Have done a marvellous job in transforming themselves into higher-quality assets. Recently announced they are going to spin off an industrial portfolio. Management has a clear track record and vision as to where they want to go. 5.6% yield. Still sees upside.

property mngmnt / investment
PAST TOP PICK
Arc Resources Ltd

(A Top Pick Oct 26/11. Down 2.04%.) Because of the weakness in natural gas in the 1st quarter he got out of the stock in his portfolio but his firm still has some. Company just announced a big financing to help shore up the balance sheet just as he had expected.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
Bank of Montreal

(A Top Pick Oct 26/11. Up 1.43%.) Still likes. Thinks there are some cost synergies that they can eke out of their US bank. Also thinks there is an opportunity for them to grow their loan book. 4.8% dividend with a good possibility of it being increased next year.

banks